Chicago Bears: Realistic Expectations For 2023

The Chicago Bears have a lot of hype around them going into 2023. While the offseason is a time for hype for every team, it seems especially high around Chicago. Justin Fields is getting MVP buzz and is projected for a Jalen Hurts-type jump. Many are picking them to win the wide-open NFC North. The schedule is kind and the conference is weak. There are also detractors that say the team is going to be the same one from last year and be in the top five of the draft yet again. The answer is somewhere in between.

A Caveat To This Chicago Bears Article

I have to air my bias out for all to see. I am a diehard Green Bay Packers fan. The Bears being bad brings me great joy. However, I pride myself in giving even my most hated rivals credit where credit is due. Let’s start with some history.

History Of Teams With The Worst Records

The Chicago Bears were at the bottom of the league last year. Here are the last 10 years of teams that had the worst record and what they did the next season.

2013 Texans 2-14: Next season 9-7, missed playoffs

2014 Buccaneers 2-14: Next season 6-10, missed playoffs

2015 Titans 3-13: Nex season 9-7, missed playoffs

2016 Browns 1-15: Next season 0-16, obviously missed playoffs

2017 Browns 0-16: Next season 7-8-1, missed playoffs

2018 Cardinals 3-13: Next season 5-10-1, missed playoffs

2019 Bengals 2-14: Next season 4-11-1, missed playoffs

2020 Jaguars 1-15: Next season 3-14, missed playoffs

2021 Jaguars 3-14: Next season 9-8, made playoffs

Out of those teams, only three had winning records the next season. Only one, last year’s Jacksonville Jaguars, made it to the playoffs in the following year. Most teams are a year away from actually competing for a playoff spot. On average, the team with the worst record only wins between 3-4 more games. However, in the NFL we have to look at the situation.

Chicago Bears Situation Going Into 2023

The Bears went the route of the 2015 Titans and traded out of the top pick. This netted them draft capital but also wide receiver DJ Moore who has quietly been a very productive receiver during his time in the league. On defense, Tremaine Edmunds provides a veteran presence and free agent signing Yannick Ngakoue should help a pass rush that was abysmal last season. Overall I think that if you are talking about the Bears in 2023 it comes down to two things: Justin Fields development and the defense.

Justin Fields

Full admission. I am bullish on Fields this year. If the Bears stink, I don’t think it will be because of Fields. We all know the knock on Fields. He is an elite runner with supreme athletic ability but his passing skills have left much to be desired. I think he will show improvement but the question is how much. Like it or not, it is a passing league and at some point, chunk plays through the air are necessary. Moore should help immensely as last year Fields simply didn’t have anyone to throw the ball to. The reports out of training camp have been positive and he has made some nice throws.

I want to pour some cold water on the hype. Everyone is saying that Fields is going to make a leap like Jalen Hurts but those situations were very different. Hurts and the Eagles made the playoffs the previous year. They also boasted one of the best offensive lines in the game and added AJ Brown to a receiving corps of DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. I like DJ Moore but Brown is better and Smith and Goedert are upgrades over the Bears’ current roster. The offensive line is improving but not elite. I think Fields improves but it isn’t enough to vault him into the MVP conversation.

The Chicago Bears Defense

Do you know what would help Fields? A dominant Chicago Bears defense. Part of the mistakes that the young quarterback makes are due to him having to force the issue. If the defense keeps giving up points, Fields and the offense are going to have to push the ball more than they want to. If the defense can even be middle of the road it will help. The offense can run the ball and control the clock which is the game they want to play.

The defense is where I worry. I don’t think the team did enough to upgrade especially in the pass rush to make a huge difference. Ngakoue is a nice piece but a pass rush is not all one person. I like the safeties, Eddie Jackson and Jaquan Brisker, but don’t consider either of them huge game-changers (though coming from a Packers fan, I would kill for that safety room right now). I think this defense gives up a lot of points which will hurt the offense.

Expectations For 2023

Realistically I think the Chicago Bears pick up six more wins in 2023. Historically that puts them above average. 9-8 feels very attainable with their schedule. There are so many winnable games throughout the year. This team is way better than a lot of the worst teams historically. The winning season happens because Fields and Moore become a great QB-WR duo. The defense overperforms and a couple of young players show the ability to be cornerstones for the future. This catapults the team in 2024 with a lot of optimism and a clear path forward.

What If It Goes Wrong?

Let’s say I’m wrong and the Chicago Bears are horrible again. Fields gets worse or stays the same. The defense can’t stop anybody. Chase Claypool and Darnell Mooney aren’t viable complements to Moore. While that stinks for 2023, it actually is not the worst-case scenario. Next year’s quarterback class is set to be special. The team will have their pick plus the Carolina Panthers’ pick. If you have watched any preseason you know that there is a question of whether the team can block for Bryce Young. The Chicago Bears could have the draft capital to go get the guy they want. The team has options which is what you want no matter how good or bad a team is.

This season needs to be the season that catapults them into success in 2024. Chicago Bears fans have been patient for years but that patience needs to last a little longer.