Beware of the Rookie Tight Ends Hype

The hype around the rookie tight ends is real in 2023. This class was one of the deepest in recent history and many of the first-year players will play significant roles on their teams. The training camp hype from these players has been exploding. Videos from beat reporters and teams have shown off skills and interviews have been full of high praise. However, history tells us to beware of the rookie tight ends hype.

Rookie Tight Ends In 2023

Let’s stick with just the ones that were drafted in the first three rounds. The tight ends drafted on day three haven’t received much hype and likely won’t make much of an impact in 2023. Here is the list of tight ends taken in the first three rounds of the 2023 NFL Draft.

Dalton Kincaid: Buffalo Bills

Sam LaPorta: Detroit Lions

Michael Mayer: Las Vegas Raiders

Luke Musgrave: Green Bay Packers

Luke Schoonmaker: Dallas Cowboys

Brenton Strange: Jacksonville Jaguars

Tucker Kraft: Green Bay Packers

Darnell Washington: Pittsburgh Steelers

Cameron Latu: San Francisco 49ers

There has been no shortage of hype from players on this list.

Who Is Getting The Most Hype?

Josh Allen apparently jumped for joy when the team drafted Kincaid. Von Miller was quoted as saying, “this kid is insane” in the early days of training camp. Allen heaped on more praise in a recent interview. The team is clearly hoping he can be their version of Travis Kelce. Musgrave has been getting rave reviews out of the Packers’ camp. He gets open a lot and looks like a matchup nightmare. Similarly, LaPorta looks to already be a favorite target of Jared Goff.

Both Tucker Kraft and Darnell Washington have been getting different types of hype. Kraft was already seen as a little bit of a project but due to the lack of tight ends on the Green Bay roster, should see significant snaps. Washington is also likely to be a project but because of his size has been getting a lot of hype.

History Of Rookie Tight Ends

History tells us that rookie tight ends will not produce in their first year. Only five tight ends have ever had more than 800 yards in their rookie season. That list is Mike Ditka, Kyle Pitts, Jeremy Shockey, Keith Jackson, and Charlie Young. Pitts is the only recently picked tight end to have success in his rookie campaign. It is worth noting that even with the yardage, he only found the end zone once in that season. Good tight ends often do not have great rookie seasons.

Pat Freiermuth only totaled 497 yards in his rookie season. Newly extended Cole Kmet only posted 28 catches for 243 yards and a couple of scores. T.J. Hockenson was taken eighth overall and had 32 catches for 367 yards and two scores. In 2018, Hayden Hurst, Mike Gesicki, Dallas Goedert, and Mark Andrews combined had 102 catches for 1,251 yards and eight scores. It’s pretty bleak for rookie tight ends. The rookie season doesn’t predict future production but the players are rarely good right away.

Why Do They Struggle As Rookies?

The tight end position has a lot going on in the NFL. They can line up as receivers and be primarily pass-catchers. Teams may use them as a sixth offensive lineman in order to block. These two tasks and everything in between make the transition from college to the NFL more difficult. The good news for these teams is that a poor rookie season does not mean a wasted pick. Players often need a year or two. Travis Kelce only had 862 yards in his second season and only appeared in one game in his rookie season. It’s normal for the position.

Despite the information that is out there, it’s impossible to not get swept up in the rookie tight ends hype. The one thing to watch this year will be opportunity. Kincaid, Musgrave, and LaPorta should all have significant roles in the offense. The opportunity could lead to more production. However, history says beware. Be excited for down the road but do not expect a lot from the rookie season.