FOXBOROUGH, MA - AUGUST 12: New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) rears back to pass during a preseason game between the New England Patriots and the Washington Football Team on August 12, 2021, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
The NFL is set up to have parity. Last-place teams face an easier schedule than last year’s division winners. This gives the ability for some NFL teams to overachieve every year. Pair that with a slew of other factors of why a team may have had an off year and there always is at least one team that surprises fans and analysts. Which NFL teams will overachieve in 2023?
NFL Teams That Could Overachieve
What is the definition of overachieve in terms of an NFL season? I don’t necessarily have a metric for it. However, the three teams that I have chosen have a common thread. A lot of people are picking them to finish last in their division. This likely means missing the playoffs and in some cases picking in the top ten. However, I can realistically see a world where these teams make the postseason and place second in the division.
New England Patriots
Why They Will: Last season, the offense under Matt Patricia was a dumpster fire and that’s insulting to dumpster fires. The unit was so disjointed and overall the team was undisciplined and sloppy. But they won eight games! Eight! This year, Bill O’Brien brings stability to the offense. The reports out of training camp have been positive. Let’s also not forget the defense. Matthew Judon has All-Pro potential and they may have gotten the steal of the draft in Christian Gonzalez. Behind a strong defense and competent offensive play, the Patriots are one of the NFL teams that could overachieve.
Why They Won’t: The schedule is brutal. They have the third-hardest schedule this season. They have to play the Bills, Jets, and Dolphins twice plus the NFC East which is by far the toughest division in the conference. Mac Jones may not be the answer at quarterback and the lack of a deep threat at the wide receiver position is a problem the team has been dealing with for years. There’s a world where this season goes horribly awry and the Patriots have some tough decisions going into 2024.
Cleveland Browns
Why They Will: This team has the potential to field a top-ten offense and defense in 2023. Deshaun Watson has proven in the past he can be a top quarterback in the league. Nick Chubb is one of the best running backs. They are quietly stacked at wide receiver with Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Elijah Moore as the top options. Defensively, Myles Garrett leads a revamped unit that is now under the direction of Jim Schwartz. Schwartz has shown he can use talent effectively and he has plenty of it in Cleveland.
Why They Won’t: Watson looked awful last season. He hasn’t really played in two full seasons. Is this the norm now or will he return to form? His upside is definitely there but it is impossible to predict. It all really comes down to Watson. Chubb, Garrett, and Schwartz have shown proof of concept recently. I feel confident that those three aspects of the team will have some level of success. I have no clue about Watson. If he plays the way he did at the end of last season, there will be a lot of questions in Cleveland.
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Chicago Bears
Why They Will: This is one that is maybe a bit of a cheat on the list of NFL teams who might overachieve. People are high on the Bears. Justin Fields and the team have been getting a lot of action in the betting markets. It’s easy to see why. The team brought in DJ Moore, a true number-one wide receiver. The offensive line got upgraded and late signings like edge rusher Yannick Ngakoue have made people bullish on the team. It really comes down to excitement around Fields. If his passing ability can rival his running ability, this team will be scary good.
Why They Won’t: Even with the recent signings, I still have questions about the defense. If they can’t stop anyone, the Bears are going nowhere. There is also a world where Fields has not progressed enough as a passer. This limits the offense. Fields had a record-breaking season last year. It resulted in three wins and the worst record in the league. Even if Fields duplicates exactly what he did last year on the ground, if there is not significant progress as a passer, the team will struggle to stay out of the NFC North basement.
Other candidates for this list would be the Packers, Panthers, and Broncos though I think their cases are much more murky. I’m not saying that these NFL teams will be guaranteed to overachieve but I see a world where it is possible. It happens every year that one team smashes preseason expectations. Who will it be in 2023?
