Twins Starting Pitcher Sonny Gray -CBS News/X
Grading trades is a tricky proposition. Often it takes several years to really evaluate the value of a trade. And yet we speculate from day one on when our team makes a trade. Who won the trade? Who lost? What were the short and long term benefits to our team? Yep. Evaluating trades is a tricky proposition.
With that in mind, I reviewed some of the biggest trades that the Twins have been a part of over the past three years. With the 2023 trade deadline looming, I thought it would be interesting to see how the Twins’ brain trust has fared in past deals. One caveat is that while the perception of who won or lost these trades is important. I am also basing my grades on the value that Minnesota received in these transactions.
A Very Nice Transaction
DH Nelson Cruz to Tampa for SP Joe Ryan and RP Drew Strotman: I love Nelson Cruz. The head Bomba was one of the best acquisitions that the Twins have ever made. But in 2021, with the team faltering, it made sense to deal the aging, but still productive slugger for some young pitching talent.
And while Drew Strotman as long since departed the Twins universe, Joe Ryan has turned into one of the best young starters in the game. The expectation is that he will be mainstay of the Twins rotation for many years to come. As trade values go, this one ranks right up there. I’ll give it an A-.
The Waiting is the Hardest Part on Some Trades
SP Jose Berrios to Toronto for SS/OF Austin Martin and SP Simeon Woods-Richardson: This one is a little tricky. Berrios was a good sometimes great head of the rotation guy for the Twins for several years. But the general consensus by the team was that he had reached his peak performance level and would fall short in his bid to become a true ace pitcher. Plus, the prospect of the Twins acquiring two rising stars was too tantalizing for the team to pass up.
Among the trades listed here, this one is the hardest to evaluate. The Twins were ecstatic to acquire Martin from the Blue Jays. The fifth overall pick in the 2020 Amateur Draft immediately rocketed to the top of the team’s prospect list. But after a disappointing season at Double-A Wichita, his stock started to drop. But he ended his season with a strong performance in the Arizona Fall League where he finished third in hitting with a .373 average.
He was invited to the major league camp, but unfortunately, he sprained his right elbow and spent considerable time on the injured list. After rehabbing in Florida, he has joined the Triple-A St. Paul Saints to restart his career.
Woods-Richardson got roughed up in his one appearance with the Twins this year and has had some rough outings with the Saints also. But he has looked better as of late, and the Twins are still hopeful that he can contribute at the major league level. As I said, this trade, like many other trades, is still in the evaluation stage. For now, I am giving it an optimistic C grade.
No Gray Area on This One
SP Chase Petty to Cincinnati for SP Sonny Gray and RP Francis Peguero: There is no underestimating how much Sonny Gray has meant to the Twins over these past two seasons. Although he has struggled recently, the three time All Star has brought stability and professionalism to the top of the Twins rotation. He sports a six-pitch repertoire, and he has had a had a positive influence on the Twins young pitching staff.
Gray plans to test free-agency at end of this season, prompting rumors of him being on the trading block as the deadline approaches. He has even casually talked about retiring at seasons end. But the Twins would like to resign him to a short extended contract and Gray has said that he is amenable to that. Peguero has been hit hard at Double-A Wichita and there is limited optimism regarding his career with the organization.
Petty has always been a top notch prospect and he is having a terrific season for the Dayton Dragons, Cincinnati’s High -A minor league affiliate. He is posting an ERA of 1.74 and has struck out 44 batters in 41 1/3 innings. There have been rumors flying that Cincinnati will try to move him in exchange for some immediate help for their starting rotation. If they do retain him, his first Major League appearance will probably occur during 2025 Major League season.
This has been one of the betters trades that the Twins have executed in the past few years. My grade for this one is a B+.
One of Two Bad Trades
INF Spencer Steer, LHP Steve Hajjar, 1B/3B Christian Encarnacion-Strand to Cincinnati for SP Tyler Mahle: Ouch! There is no way to sugar coat this one. This is one the Twins would like to have back. The premise made sense at the time. Bring in a quality starter who could help stabilize your starting rotation for at least the next couple of years.
The price was considered steep at the time but there was some logic behind it. Steer, Hajjar, and Encarnacion all looked like future major leaguers, but they all had a flaw in their game that made it culpable to the Twins to make this trade.
The results. Well, you know the rest. Mahle came over as damaged goods. Shortly after arriving in Minnesota, he developed shoulder problems and pitched sparingly the rest of the season. This year, after starting off with a 1-2 record, he developed a bum elbow which will require “Tommy John Surgery.” He may never pitch for the team again.
Steer is a Rising Star
Cincinnati? They hit the jackpot. Steer, after a slow start last season is tearing up National League pitching. He was named the National League Rookie of the Month for May, and he is currently hitting .274, with 14 home runs and 55 RBIs.
Steer has been called Cincinnati’s “Swiss Army Knife” because he has played defensively, all around the diamond for the Reds. He has also brought flexibility to the Red’s batting order hitting anywhere from the leadoff spot to the seven hole. Steer is considered to be a major reason why Cincinnati has been so successful this season.
How has Encarnacion-Strand fared this season? Starting the year at Triple-A Louisville, he tore up the American Association. Before being recalled by the Reds, he hit .331, with 20 homers, 66 RBIs, and a 1.042 OPS for the Bats. He was promoted to the big club on July 17, and he immediately made his presence known. In his second game for Cincinnati, he hit a three-run pinch hit dinger at home against the San Francisco Giants. Nuff said.
And it Gets Worse
Hajjar, along with outfielder Justin Boyd was shipped to Cleveland before the start of the season for outfielder Will Benson. Here comes the salt going further into the wound. Since his May recall from Louisville, Benson has .339, with six homers and 17 RBIs. I can’t go on. It’s too painful. This transaction is one of the worst trades in Twins’ history. I am grading this one as an F.
The Other One
SP Cade Povich, RHP Yennier Cano, RHP Juan Nuñez, and LHP Juan Rojas to Baltimore for RP Jorge Lopez: Another stinker. This one looked like a no-brainer at the time. Acquire a solid reliever who could excel as both a closer, and as a setup man. And while you were dealing away four young pitchers, only Povich and Cano were considered top prospects by the Twins.
The Results? Catastrophic! Lopez has been a mess since coming to Minnesota. And Povich is tearing up Double-A ball. Also, Cano is having a breakout season with Baltimore sporting a 1.82 ERA, 0.973 WHIP, with 43 strikeouts. Nunez has struggled this season in Single-A, but he is still racking up strikeouts. And Rojas has pitched well in Rookie League.
And just yesterday, the Twins traded Lopez to the Miami Marlins for struggling relief pitch Dylan Floro. There is no other way to slice this. This is one of those trades that is going to hurt the Twins for a long time. My grade is an F for this trade.
One of the Most Satisfing Trades Ever
INF Luis Arraez to Miami for SP Pablo Lopez, SS Jose Salas, and OF Byron Chourio: Of all of the trades on this list, this is my favorite. This trade was a win for both teams. The Marlins received a great hitter and an even better clubhouse guy. I hope Arraez goes on and wins five or more additional batting titles. A special player on a team on the rise.
And Lopez is set up to be the Twins ace for many years to come. The first time All-Star throws a nasty four-seam fastball, a confounding changeup, and a recently added sweeper. The Twins are extremely happy with their end of the deal. Salas has been struggling in Single-A ball this season, but he is still an incredibly young prospect. And 18 year old Chourio is batting .368 in Rookie League competition. This trade is rated a B+ with a possible future upgrade to an A.
Overall, I am giving the Twins a cumulative grade of C for these trades. While the Mahle and Jorge Lopez trades have been busts, the additions of Gray, Ryan, and Pablo Lopez have given the Twins one of the top rotations in baseball. Now let’s see if the Twins make any moves before the impending trade deadline.
