Ohio State's defense keeps them atop the rankings (Photo by Ohio State Athletics)
With one week to go in the regular season, the question everyone is asking is, will things work themselves out, or will some deserving teams get snubbed when the 12-team playoff is selected?
1. Ohio State (11-0) (Last Week #1) (#1 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #1 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Ohio State is essentially a lock for the College Football Playoff now with 11 wins. It was true of Indiana last week, and it is true of the Buckeyes this week. No team in the Big Ten or SEC (and the same should be true of all Power 4 teams, with almost no exceptions) that is 11-1 or 11-2 is going to be left out. But anyone who thinks the next game doesn’t mean anything doesn’t know ball.
2. Indiana (11-0) (Last Week #2) (#2 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #2 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
As I said, Indiana is a lock. The Hoosiers, however, are playing for history and to prove themselves. Beat Purdue, win the Old Oaken Bucket, and you play for the Big Ten Championship and potentially a #1 seed in the College Football Playoff.
3. Texas A&M (11-0) (Last Week #3) (#3 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #3 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Like their fellow 11-win teams, the Aggies are in the College Football Playoff, but are playing for keeps. The last time they went undefeated in the regular season was 1994. If Mike Elko beats Texas and wins the SEC Championship, Texas A&M may give him a lifetime contract.
4. Georgia (10-1) (Last Week #4) (#4 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #4 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
I’m not sure there is a way for Georgia not to be in the College Football Playoff. Even if they were to be blown out by Georgia Tech, make the SEC title game, get blown out there, finish 10-3, the Committee would still put them because they’re Georgia and in the SEC. IF said scenario were to happen, I would want them left out over the other 10 or 11-win teams. It’s not anything we’ll realistically have to worry about.
5. Oregon (10-1) (Last Week #5) (#6 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #6 and #5 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
After their win over USC, Oregon is almost a lock for the playoff. An upset at the hands of rival Washington this week would put them on the bubble; a win and they’re in. If Oregon goes 11-1, or 11-2, or better, they would not be at risk for being left out, as they shouldn’t.
6. Texas Tech (10-1) (Last Week #6) (#5 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #5 and #7 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
A win over West Virginia this week should lock Texas Tech into the College Football Playoff, regardless of the outcome of the Big 12 title game. 11-2 or 12-1 should lock a Power Four team into the playoff with very few, if any exceptions.
7. Ole Miss (10-1) (Last Week #7) (#7 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #7 and #6 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
With all of the rumors about Lane Kiffin and where he’ll be the head coach in 2026, it’s a lost possibility that he may be where he is right now. He’s built Ole Miss into a team that can make the College Football Playoff and possibly win a national title there. Does he want to go through a rebuild again when he’s already coaching at a contender right this minute? Ole Miss is good enough to win a national championship this season, which adds a lot of strength to the argument.
8. BYU (10-1) (Last Week #9) (#11 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #11 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Last year, at BYU’s expense, the College Football Playoff Committee set a precedent that 11 wins is a magic number for the field of 12. SMU at 11-2 got into the playoff last year over a 10-2 BYU, who had beaten SMU on the field at SMU. If BYU beats UCF, they should be a playoff lock no matter what happens in the Big 12 title game. Winning on the field has to matter.
9. James Madison (10-1) (Last Week #10) (Unranked in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Unranked and Ranked #20 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Just quietly, one of the best Group of Five teams in college football. If JMU goes 12-1, they need to be considered as a playoff team. They’re earning it on the field. Only ten teams have a record as good or better than theirs, and they are all in the playoff conversation. JMU deserves to be as well as long as they keep winning.
10. North Texas (10-1) (Last Week #11) (Unranked in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Unranked and Ranked #21 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Eric Morris may be headed to Stillwater, Oklahoma, to coach the Cowboys, but he’s going to try to get North Texas an American Conference title and a playoff berth first. Stars like Drew Mestemaker and Caleb Hawkins have the Mean Green poised to be the Group of Five team in the College Football Playoff this season. I think it was smart of Morris, Oklahoma State, and North Texas to make that announcement early, and allow them to focus, knowing what’s going to happen, and not have it be a question mark for the next few weeks.
11. Miami (9-2) (Last Week #12) (#12 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #12 and #13 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The log jam of teams that are currently 9-2 that will likely finish 10-2 begins here. For a while now, Miami has been propped up at the top of this group because of their opening week win over Notre Dame. That’s the double-edged sword that cuts both ways in those games. While beating Notre Dame might get Miami into the playoff, Texas losing to Ohio State will keep them out.
12. Notre Dame (9-2) (Last Week #13) (#9 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #9 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Notre Dame is probably the best two-loss team in the nation. Yet, they can’t jump Miami as long as they have the same record. Even though they’d probably win if they played again, the head-to-head has to matter in a tight playoff race and when the teams have the same record. Notre Dame will always get the benefit of the doubt over teams from the ACC or the Big 12.
13. Utah (9-2) (Last Week #15) (#13 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #13 and #14 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
I’m a BYU fan, but it’s gross to see Utah, along with the rest of the Big 12, get so low-balled. I don’t have anything against any of the other 9-2 teams, but I wouldn’t mind a lot of them being upset, so the Big 12 can get the love and respect they deserve, and that includes the Utes. Outside of two games against top 10 teams, Utah has been explosive and dominant all year.
14. Oklahoma (9-2) (Last Week #16) (#8 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #8 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Shutting down Missouri was a great game for Brent Venables and his defense. The Sooners get another solid test against LSU this week. LSU has as much talent as anyone, but Oklahoma should still take them down and have a strong case for an at-large playoff bid at 10-2.
15. Alabama (9-2) (Last Week #17) (#10 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #10 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Despite the loss to Oklahoma, Alabama still controls their own destiny. The first step on that path is to beat Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Kalen DeBoer knows to take nothing for granted. He could warn his team about how the regular season finished for Ohio State last year. Pointing out that at 9-2, they don’t have the leeway the Buckeyes did last year. A loss eliminates them, a win, keeps them alive and well.
16. Vanderbilt (9-2) (Last Week #19) (#14 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #14 and #12 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Another team that with a win and a 10-2 finish would be on the bubble, and likely have its bubble burst. I don’t think the Commodores are looking ahead to that, though. They’re focused on winning against in-state rival Tennessee. They just want to beat the Vols, and let the chips regarding Diego Pavia and the Heisman, and the College Football Playoff fall where they may.
17. Virginia (9-2) (Last Week #20) (#18 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #18 and #17 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The Cavaliers are a win against rival Virginia Tech away from playing for the ACC Championship and a College Football Playoff berth. Virginia has to win their Commonwealth Cup battle against Virginia Tech first. That’s easier said than done, even with Virginia Tech’s struggles this year. Virginia is 2-23 in the last 25 games against Virginia Tech.
18. Navy (8-2) (Last Week #21) (Unranked in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Unranked in the AP and Coaches Polls)
With North Texas, Tulane, and Navy all at 8-2 or better, it seems like the American will be the Group of Five playoff representative this year. Should Navy be the American Conference Champion, the committee would have to decide whether a 10-2 Navy with a game left to be played would be ranked higher than a potential 12-1 James Madison or an 11-2 Mountain West Champion. If that were to happen, there would be serious conversations to move the Army-Navy game. Navy playing on Thanksgiving this year makes me think that a night game every Thanksgiving, when it’s the only college football game on, would be a great time for America’s Game between Army and Navy.
19. Tulane (9-2) (Last Week #22) (#24 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #24 and #22 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
It’s a little wild that quarterback Jake Retzlaff has a better shot to make the College Football Playoff on a Tulane team that will likely be 10-2 in the regular season than his old BYU team that is likely to be 11-1 in the regular season. A win over 1-10 Charlotte should easily get Tulane to 10-2.
20. UNLV (9-2) (Last Week #23) (Unranked in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Unranked in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Dan Mullen’s team is continuing the success Barry Odom rebuilt at UNLV. UNLV has had an electric offense all season. In their win over Hawaii, it looked like their defense had caught up. If UNLV keeps this up, they’ll play for the Mountain West title this year, and if enough chaos happens, they could make the College Football Playoff.
21. Georgia Tech (9-2) (Last Week #8) (#23 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #23 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
If you can’t play to get into the College Football Playoff or a conference championship, the next best thing you can do is spoil your rival’s season. While it would probably not take them out of the running, a loss by Georgia to Georgia Tech would really hurt their momentum. It would also position Tech for a long shot at an at-large playoff berth as well as a long shot at an ACC Championship game berth.
22. San Diego State (9-2) (Last Week #25) (Unranked in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Unranked in the AP and Coaches Polls)
SDSU is set up to get a conference crown in their last year in the Mountain West. It would be quite an achievement before the Mountain West and Pac-12 become watered down to the point of being the worst two FBS conferences in 2026. It’s no easy road, though. They’ll need to beat two of the top four teams in the conference. Beginning at New Mexico and then either UNLV or a rematch with Boise State.
23. Texas (8-3) (Unranked Last Week) (#16 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #16 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Like Georgia Tech, Texas can still throw a wrench into the gears of Texas A&M as the Aggies march toward the playoff. It wouldn’t keep A&M out of the playoff, but it certainly would hurt them. It would also help Texas going into 2026 with lots of momentum.
24. Arizona (8-3) (Unranked Last Week) (#25 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #25 and Unranked in the AP and Coaches Polls)
While ASU has one of the longest of long shots to repeat as Big 12 champions and go back to the College Football Playoff, Arizona could end that on Friday. Arizona is having a great turn around from last season, and a victory over Arizona State would be the perfect way to cap it off.
25. Washington (8-3) (Unranked Last Week) (Unranked in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Unranked in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Washington would put their rival, Oregon, on the bubble with an upset win this weekend and would improve from 6-6 in year one of Coach Jedd Fisch to 9-3 in year two. That would be a huge step in the right direction for the Huskies.
Playoff Projection
First Round
8. Notre Dame (10-2) vs. 9. Oklahoma (10-2)
Friday, December 18th, 2025 – South Bend, Indiana
7. Ole Miss (11-1) vs. 10. BYU (12-1)
Saturday, December 19th, 2025 – Oxford, Mississippi
6. Ohio State (11-1) vs. 11. Virginia (11-2)
Saturday, December 19th, 2025 – Columbus, Ohio
5. Texas A&M (11-1) vs. 12. North Texas (12-1)
Saturday, December 19th, 2025 – College Station, Texas
Quarterfinals
1. Indiana (13-0) vs. 8. Notre Dame (11-2)
Thursday, January 1st, 2026 – Pasadena, California
3. Georgia (11-2) vs. 6. Ohio State (12-1)
Thursday, January 1st, 2026 – Miami, Florida
2. Alabama (11-2) vs. 10. BYU (13-1)
Thursday, January 1st, 2026 – New Orleans, Louisiana
4. Oregon (11-1) vs. Texas A&M (12-1)
Wednesday, December 31st, 2025 – Arlington, Texas
Semifinals
4. Oregon (12-1) vs. 8. Notre Dame (12-2)
Thursday, January 8th, 2026 – Glendale, Arizona
2. Alabama (12-2) vs. 6. Ohio State (13-1)
Friday, January 9th, 2026 – Atlanta, Georgia
National Championship
6. Ohio State (14-1) vs. 8. Notre Dame (13-2)
Monday, January 19th, 2026 – Miami, Florida
National Champions
Ohio State (15-1)
That is how I believe things play out for the rest of the season and how the College Football Playoff Committee ranks teams headed into the playoff, and how the playoff plays out. If I were seeding the top 12 teams after the season, it would look as follows.
1. Indiana (13-0) (Big Ten Champion)
2. BYU (12-1) (Big 12 Champion) (Only loss to Texas Tech)
3. Alabama (11-2) (SEC Champion) (Only losses to FSU, and Oklahoma)
4. Virginia (11-2) (ACC Champion) (Only losses to NC State, and Wake Forest)
5. North Texas (12-1) (Highest-ranked Group of Five Champion) (Only loss to USF)
6. Ohio State (11-1) (at-large) (Only loss in final regular season game)
7. Oregon (11-1) (at-large) (Only loss to Indiana)
8. Texas A&M (11-1) (at-large) (Only loss to Texas)
9. Georgia (11-2) (at-large, SEC runner-up) (Only losses to Alabama)
10. Ole Miss (11-1) (at-large) (Only loss to Georgia)
11. Texas Tech (11-2) (at-large, Big 12 runner-up) (Only losses to Arizona State and to BYU in the Big 12 Championship)
12. Miami (10-2) (at-large) (Only losses to Louisville and SMU)
First Four Out
13. Notre Dame (10-2) (at-large) (Only losses to Miami and Texas A&M)
14. Utah (10-2) (Only losses to Texas Tech and BYU)
15. Oklahoma (10-2) (Only losses to Texas and Ole Miss)
16. UNLV (11-2) (Mountain West Champion)
