Pablo Lopez (49) of the Minnesota Twins pitches during Game 2 of the Division Series between the Minnesota Twins and the Houston Astros. - Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
The Minnesota Twins faced certain facts as the free agency signing period started in Major League Baseball. After having their total roster payroll hover around $155 million in 2023. The Pohlad family announced that their personal salary cap for their 2024 team would be $20 million less.
The Twin are facing an uncertainty about their television rights income for 2024. Like many teams, Diamond/Bally Sports is exiting stage right and the projected revenue outflow from their television contract is projected to be greatly reduced. The Twins are not even sure which platform(s) will be covering their games next year.
Twins Lose Gray and Maeda
And as a result of this, the likelihood of signing Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray to a new contract was very improbable. And sure enough, while the Twins offered him a one-year contract worth $20 million, St. Louis more than matched that offer by signing him to a three-year $75 million deal. All the best to Sonny in St. Louis as he helps them in their pennant race. He’s truly a class act.
The same could be true to a lesser degree of pitcher Kenta Maeda who signed a two-year, $24 million contract with the Detroit Tigers. Maeda had a great first year with the Twins going 6-1 in the pandemic shortened 2020 season. For his efforts, he finished second in the 2020 American League Cy Young race to Cleveland’s Shane Bieber. And after missing the entire 2022 season after Tommy John surgery, he once again was a reliable starter for the team from June on.
Pagan Also Leaves Minnesota
Also, add relief pitcher Emilio Pagan, who was so ravaged in 2022 but came back with a sterling performance last season to this list. The Cincinnati Reds signed Pagan to a two-year $16 million contract. Welcome to the world of a mid-market team with a salary crunch.
As I rollout my projected 2024 Twins roster, you will discover other examples of personal decisions being made due to salary considerations. The team still has bright prospects for next year and beyond. But my projections have just been tempered a bit due to the team’s current financial situation. Last time we covered the position players. Now let’s take a look at the pitching staff.
Starting Pitching
This unit obviously took a big hit with the loss of Gray and Maeda. But the cupboard is far from bare. Last year, Pablo Lopez established himself as one of the premier pitchers in the league. In his breakout season, Lopez went 11-8, with a 1.15 Whip and 234 strikeouts.
His strikeout total was the was second highest in the in the American League behind only Kevin Gausman of the Blue Jays. He cemented his reputation with a seven inning, seven strikeout win over the Houston Astros in Game 2 of the American League Division Series.
Joining Lopez at the top of the rotation will be Joe Ryan. Ryan was working on a phenomenal season last year when a groin injury put him on the injured list in mid-season. This team was exasperated by the fact that Ryan did not inform the Twins of the severity of the injury for almost a month. Nonetheless, Ryan finished the season with a record of 11-10, with 197 strikeouts. The team will count on him to be a quality performer next season.
Twins Have a Strong Middle of the Rotation
Baily Ober’s journey was a nice storyline for the Twins in 2023. He was of course disappointed after being optioned to Triple-A St. Paul after a great preseason performance. But he persevered and became a key cog for the team when injuries to the starting rotation mounted. He finished the year 8-6, striking out 146 batters, and posting a 1.067 WHIP.
And although he was shut down for a period late in the season to avoid burnout. The Twins expect him this year to be able to complete a full season of anticipated starts. He definitely tracks as a solid middle of the rotation component.
And at the Back End
The wild card of the rotation is the hard throwing, Chris Paddack. He has spent the last year and half on the injured list recovering from his second Tommy John surgery. But when he returned in September of this year, he was very effective out of the bullpen with his 95-mph fastball. The Twins believe he has recovered enough arm strength to step in as a strong member of their rotation.
The Minnesota Twins face a dilemma with pitcher Louie Varland. Does he start the season in the rotation with the hope that he can keep his velocity up for six innings? Or does he start the season in the bullpen where he pitched so well last season down the stretch? Or do they do a Bailey Ober and have him start the year in Triple-A as a starter to stretch him out for an eventual callup?
No easy answers on this one. Quite a bit rests on the Twins’ ability to acquire another starter in free agency or through a trade. Varland seemed to enjoy his time in the bullpen last season where his fastball sometimes exceeded 97 mph. But like any young pitcher, his initial dream is to one day be a permanent part of a Major League rotation. Here’s betting he moves north with the team after spring training and fills the roll of a long reliever/spot starter.
Other Possibilities
If the Twins do acquire some rotation help, the usual names have been mentioned as possible pick-ups. Tyler Glasnow, Corbin Burnes, and Shane Bieber are the names most mentioned in the rumor mill. But with a current rotation of all right-handed pitchers, I believe it is time to add a southpaw to the staff.
Two players that I think would help the team are Wade Miley and Frankie Montas. Miley is a reliable lefty who would be an ideal, and affordable end of the rotation guy for the Twins. And while Montas missed most of last season with a shoulder injury, he nonetheless had several quality years in Oakland near the top of their rotation. And if the Yankees go all in on the Yoshinobu Yamamoto sweepstakes, Montas may become an affordable option for the Twins.
Twins Bullpen
Any discussion of the Twins bullpen starts with their 102 mph throwing closer. Jhoan Duran is the man in question and his pitch selection strikes fear in the hearts and minds of opposing batters. Duran suffered through a rocky last half of the season in 2023. But the Twins are quite happy to have Mr. Duran on the mound in the ninth inning with the game on the line.
Griffin Jax pitched well down the stretch and solidified his role as a key setup man for Duran. Same for the reclamation project, Brock Stewart. Although he was injured for part of the season, his intimidating fastball kept opposing batters off balance all season. And Caleb Thielbar gives the Twins a steady, veteran lefthanded presence in the bullpen.
Twins’ Middle Relief
Oft injured Jorge Alcala has wowed the Twins with his fastball in previous years and will be given every chance to make the roster next spring. And late season call up Kody Funderburk will get first crack at the lefthanded middle reliever role. And I believe that Varland will take the seventh spot in the pen as the Twins determine a long-term role for him.
So, who gets the coveted eighth spot. Possibilities include Josh Winder, Cole Sands, and Jordan Balazovic. Simeon Woods Richardson might get a chance, but he is coming off a disappointing 2023 season that saw him digress in most categories. But the I believe the Twins will pick up a low-cost veteran like Ryan Brasier to fill that role. Brasier pitched well for the Dodgers in the waning months of last season, and he could be acquired for the right price.
So, there you have it. It will be fun to check back next spring to see how accurate my predictions were. And remember. Only 67 days until Twins’ pitchers and catchers report to spring training.
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