Carlos Correa (4) of the Minnesota Twins runs to home plate to score a run in the sixth inning against the Houston Astros during Game Three of the Division Series at Target Field. - David Berding/Getty Images)
The Minnesota Twins faced certain facts as the free agency signing period started in Major League Baseball. After having their total roster payroll hover around $155 million in 2023. The Pohlad family announced that their personal salary cap for their 2024 team would be $20 million less.
The team is facing an uncertainty about their television rights income for 2024. Like many teams, Diamond/Bally Sports is exiting stage right and the projected revenue outflow from their television contract is projected to be greatly reduced. The Twins are not even sure which platform(s) will be covering their games next year.
Twins Lose Gray and Maeda
And as a result of this, the likelihood of signing Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray to a new contract was very improbable. And sure enough, while the team offered him a one-year contract worth $20 million, St. Louis more than matched that offer by signing him to a three-year $75 million deal. All the best to Sonny in St. Louis as he helps them in their pennant race. He’s truly a class act.
The same could be true to a lesser degree of pitcher Kenta Maeda who signed a two-year, $24 million contract with the Detroit Tigers. Maeda had a great first year with the Twins going 6-1 in the pandemic shortened 2020 season. For his efforts, he finished second in the 2020 American League Cy Young race to Cleveland’s Shane Bieber. And after missing the entire 2022 season after Tommy John surgery, he once again was a reliable starter for the team from June on.
Pagan Also Leaves Minnesota
Also, add relief pitcher Emilio Pagan, who was so ravaged in 2022 but came back with a sterling performance last season to this list. The Cincinnati Reds signed Pagan to a two-year $16 million contract. Welcome to the world of a mid-market team with a salary crunch.
As I rollout my projected 2024 Twins roster, you will discover other examples of personal decisions being made due to salary considerations. The team still has bright prospects for next year and beyond. But my projections have just been tempered a bit due to the team’s current financial situation. Let’s take a look at the position players first.
Catcher
The resurgence of Ryan Jeffers last season leaves the Twins with more flexibility at this position. Free-agent signee Christian Vasquez was brought in last year to be the principal starting catcher after Jeffers had struggled during the 2022 season. But Jeffers’ hitting, fielding, and throwing improved throughout the season while Vasquez regressed in all of those areas.
This makes Vasquez expendable except for one little detail. Most teams will be reluctant to take on a $10 million a year contract for an aging player. The Twins will almost certainly eat part of his salary as they attempt to unload his contract.
Fortunately, the Twins have an intriguing plan B. Jair Camargo had a solid year playing for the Triple-A St. Paul Saints where he hit 21 home runs along with 63 rbis. He has a strong throwing arm and is a fundamentally sound defensive player. With Jeffers on the roster, the team will have the luxury of gradually working Camargo into the lineup.
Infield
There are certain assumptions that one can make about the starting infield that the Twins will trot out on the field next year. With all certainty, the left side of Twins infield will be in the capable hands of All-Star shortstop Carlos Correa and last year’s super rookie, Royce Lewis.
But there is a caveat with both of these players. Correa has gotten off to painfully slow starts the past two seasons and Lewis as we all know has a history of injuries that have been too frequent in his young career. Both of these factors must be mitigated for the team to have success next season.
The Twins have the luxury of rostering two outstanding second baseman. Jorge Polanco is a past All-Star who carries a flexible bat and astute fielding instincts. And Edouard Julien was a wunderkind last year, and his bat is simply too lethal to keep out the lineup. Also, he has worked incredibly hard to improve his defense.
Twins Will Trade Polanco
The most likely scenario is that Polanco is traded for some pitching help and Julien is named the starting second baseman. When this trade is made, it will be sad day for this writer. I love Eddy and what he brings to the table, but Jorge has been my favorite Twin for several years now. So long old friend.
The first base situation makes you want to scratch your head. In a perfect world, the Twins would trot Alex Kirilloff out there for every game. Unfortunately, he has racked up multiple injuries over several seasons and the jury is still out as to whether he can survive an entire 162 game schedule.
Other Infield Questions
Then there’s the case of Jose Miranda. Miranda tore up the league in 2022 after his call up from St. Paul, but he struggled right off the bat last season. He never recovered as he saw his season shortened by a shoulder injury. However, he still has to be included in the first base conversation given Kirilloff’s past durability issues. He likely could see some at-bats at DH also.
Another casualty of the Twins financial situation will be their inability to retain super subs Kyle Farmer and Donavan Solano. Solano was the best player on the team until the All-Star break last year and Farmer was invaluable as he filled in at every infield position and also saw some duty in the outfield. He even was deployed as the third string catcher for the team in case an emergency arose.
But Farmer’s $6+ million salary will price him out of the Twins’ range, as they look to sign utility players. And Solano, who will soon turn 36, might be seeking a longer contract then the Twins are willing to surrender.
Outfield
I am now going to mouth some words I thought that I would never say again. Pencil in Max Kepler as the starting right fielder for the Minnesota Twins in 2024. The smooth fielding right fielder whose bat disappeared for three seasons once again looked lost at the plate early last season. Then, without warning, he turned into one of the hottest hitters in baseball in the second half of the season.
Who knows if this occurred because of the dissolution of the of the defensive shifts that caused him so much consternation or his ability to once again be competitive against lefthanded pitching? But whatever the reason, Kepler once again became a reliable middle of the order bat for manager Rocco Baldelli and the Twins.
Patrolling leftfield will be the manchild, Matt Wallner. After his call up last season, Wallner hit 14 homeruns in 254 at bats for the Twins. The sky is the limit for this young player. He has a rocket throwing arm which might eventually land him in rightfield. And while not the most adroit fielder, he continues to show improvement on the defensive side of the slate.
Twins Have a Dilemma in Centerfield
Centerfield. Oh my! How the Twins would love to pencil in Byron Buxton’s name in this slot every game. But reality has set in. Attempting to keep him off the injured list, the Twins deployed Buxton solely at DH last season with disastrous results. And he still ended up the injured list.
Given that reality, the Twins need to have a Plan 1A for this position. Centerfield was ably manned by Michael A. Taylor in 2023 who gave the team a Gold Glove fielding performance with good pop in his bat, and some speed on the basepaths. It remains to be seen if he is affordable, given the Twins projected financial constraints.
Their other options. Willi Castro certainly showed some spark last season when he subbed for Taylor in centerfield. But given the almost certain reality of Farmer and Solano leaving the team, his versality will be needed all over the field. Austin Martin from the Saints has the speed to play the position. But he could use at least a half year of seasoning as he would be converting from his original second base position.
Other possibilities include adding a free agent like Kevin Kiermaier. But salary constraints will again be a factor in the Twins ability to sign this caliber of player. And I believe we are at the end of the station for the Nick Gordon story. After the feelgood story of 2022, the fairy tale came crashing down last season. Out most of the season with a fractured right tibia, the odds of him heading north with the team in February of 2024 are slim.
Twins Should Sign Tommy Pham
One more thing. The Twins have been in desperate need of a powerful right-handed hitting outfielder for quite some time. Their left-handed batting order has been exploited by teams with dynamic southpaws on their team. The answer. Tommy Pham. I actually thought he would have been a great mid-season pickup for the Twins this past season.
He hit 16 home runs last season, has good speed, and is not a defensive liability. He could serve as the Twins fulltime DH while spelling Kepler and Wallner when they need a rest.
So, there you have it. My predictions for the everyday position players for the Twins’ 2024 team. Part two will cover their projected pitching staff for next season. Stay tuned.
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