Photo credit: Moto "Club4AG" Miwa on Flickr
The 2023-2024 offseason is going to be one for the record books. Namely because Greatest-Player-In-Baseball-History Shohei Ohtani is going to be up for grabs. However, there is plenty more star power among the upcoming MLB free agents than he alone.
From top of the line starters to veterans and glue guys, the upcoming off-season ostensibly promises more fireworks than the 2022-2023 class.
With that in mind, we rank the top 10 upcoming MLB free agents.
Here we go.
#10 Eduardo Rodriguez – Detroit Tigers
Eduardo Rodriguez is sure to be an interesting case study this off-season. The Dodgers targeted him at the trade deadline, but Rodriguez invoked his no-trade clause to prevent the swap. Many were surprised, given the disparity in World Series hopes between the Tigers and the Dodgers, but ultimately it’s irrelevant. Rodriguez has the no-trade clause for a reason, and it will be interesting to see what he places value on through MLB free agency.
Notable Stats: 8-6 | 3.13 ERA | 1.1 WHIP | 9.25 K/9
Potential landing spots:
- Cincinnati Reds: Boy do the Reds need pitching, and they weren’t able to get any at the deadline. While the Reds could show up for just about every pitcher on this list, I think E-rod would be of higher interest to them. They still have talented infield prospects to trade, and geographically it represents a far less dramatic move for E-rod and his family.
- Baltimore Orioles: The O’s nabbed Jack Flaherty at the deadline, which thus far looks to have paid off. 2023’s most improved team is officially a World Series contender, and putting Rodriguez near the top of their rotation could cement them as a perennial threat to the crown.
#9 Lucas Giolito – Los Angeles Angels
Ohtani isn’t the only Los Angeles Angels pitcher who will get to test the market this winter. After being traded from the Chicago White Sox earlier this month, Lucas Giolito has sputtered trying to find his footing with his new ball club.
Nevertheless, Giolito historically represents a reliable rotation piece who, at his best, can hang in the 1 or 2 slot.
Notable Stats: 7-8 | 4.37 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 9.6 K/9
Potential landing spots:
- Atlanta Braves: Not only is Charlie Morton’s future unclear (both with regard to age and contract), but Giolito has a close friendship with Atlanta ace Max Fried, so much so that it sparked rumors he might land in ATL at the deadline. With injuries still plaguing the Braves’ rotation, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them go after Giolito this offseason.
- Cincinnati Reds: America’s Team surprised us all with their success this year. However, their offensive brilliance has underscored the incredible weakness of their starting pitching. With ownership likely facing pressure to spend this offseason, and a core that’s prepared to compete, Giolito would fit nicely at the top of the rotation.
#8 Marcus Stroman – Chicago Cubs
Stroman has been public about his desire to stay in Chicago, but so far it seems that extension talks have been almost nonexistent. At age 32, Marcus Stroman is having a career year, anchoring a Cubs rotation that has performed really well, and helped the club claim a Wild Card spot this month.
The Cubs have shown a repeated willingness to let high-end talent walk (Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber), so it’s likely that Stroman will opt-out of his player option and test the waters.
Notable Stats: 10-8 | 3.85 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 7.8 K/9
Potential landing spots:
- Toronto Blue Jays: It’s a year of reunions, isn’t it? Andrew McCutchen is back in Pittsburgh, Kiké Hernandez and Joe Kelley are back in LA, and Verlander is back in Houston. The Blue Jays expressed interest in picking Stroman up at the deadline, and there’s no reason to think that will change come free agency.
- Baltimore Orioles: Another hyper-talented team with a need for pitching, the Orioles will surely be looking for pitching in the offseason. Stroman seems like he’d fit perfectly in the fun-loving clubhouse there, and would provide some much-needed stability in an inconsistent rotation.
#7 Matt Chapman – Toronto Blue Jays
Matt Chapman has already racked up 4.4 bWAR this season. The 2-time Platinum Glove winner is as solid as ever, and still represents a legitimate offensive threat when he comes to the plate.
Notable Stats: .255/.356/.449 | .796 OPS | 120 OPS+ | 4.4 bWAR
Potential landing spots:
- New York Mets: Back in April, Jon Heyman suggested that the Mets might target Chapman as a replacement for Eduardo Escobar. Nothing went as planned for New York this year, needless to say, but Escobar is gone, and 3B is currently a committee of young prospects. Plus, despite Max Scherzer’s claims regarding the club’s competitive intentions, Mets brass is still prepared to sign free agents.
- New York Yankees: The Mets aren’t the only New York club that could have interest in Chapman. The Yankees clearly need defensive (and offensive) upgrades, and undoubtedly have the capital to entice Chapman to the squad.
#6 Aaron Nola – Philadelphia Phillies
Aaron Nola isn’t exactly having a career year. However, his career is a case-study in consistency, the very thing so many clubs struggle to find throughout the year. Of all MLB free agents, Nola might represent the surest bet.
Notable Stats: 9-8 | 4.49 ERA | 1.14 WHIP | 9.3 K/9
Potential landing spots:
- Philadelphia Phillies: The likeliest outcome is for Nola to come out of free agency with an extension to stay in Philly. Nevertheless, what the numbers would look like and how. the contract would be structured is up in the air. The question is: in a year where Nola’s stats have dropped off significantly, will they meet his asking price?
- San Diego Padres: If the Padres end up losing Blake Snell, Yu Darvish and/or Josh Hader, GM A.J. Preller will certainly be looking to reload with comparable talent. Nola fits the bill there, and the willingness for San Diego to spend big is at an all-time high.
#5 Julio Urias – Los Angeles Dodgers
Sidelined for much the season, Julio Urias is back in the Dodgers’ rotation. After a couple of rough starts he’s looking a bit more like the pitcher who placed 3rd in Cy Young voting last year. His last two outings totaled 11 innings pitched with 0 earned runs and 10 Ks. He’s sure to be one of the most highly sought (and expensive) pitchers shaking loose this off-season.
Notable Stats: 9-6 | 4.39 ERA | 1.16 WHIP | 8.5 K/9
Potential landing spots:
- Los Angeles Dodgers: Like Nola, the probable outcome here remains Urias staying with his current team. In June, Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report predicted his free agent contract would be 5-years for $160 million. Whether or not that has trended downward based on his performance remains to be seen.
- Chicago Cubs: Julio staying in white and blue? It’s more likely than you think. Now that the Cubs have officially established their ability to contend for a playoff spot, they are sure to look for high-end talent come winter. While Chicago’s management isn’t known for big contracts, that tide may be shifting (just look at the contract they gave Dansby Swanson).
#4 Cody Bellinger – Chicago Cubs
MLB free agency wouldn’t be complete without a comeback story. In April, the notion that Cody Bellinger would rank in the top 5 of the 2023-2024 free agent class would have raised a lot of dubious eyebrows. However, the 2018 MVP has returned to form, acting as the primary motor that has put the Cubs in Wild Card contention. Plus, he’s playing the same gold-glove defense in center field and first base.
Notable Stats: .328/.379/.556 | .935 OPS | 147 OPS+ | 4.2 bWAR
Potential landing spots:
- Chicago Cubs: I know this seems repetitive, but of all the MLB free agents, Bellinger seems the likeliest to stay. Why? Cubs brass is facing extraordinary pressure to extend him. If they don’t manage to keep Stroman, that pressure will be even more astronomical. I don’t see them letting both these guys go.
- New York Yankees: Just last month, Bob Nightengale gave the Cubs a 0% chance to re-sign Bellinger. The primary reason for this prediction is the fact that Bellinger is represented by Scott Boras, who is now notorious for seeking max contracts instead of best-fits (just ask Freddie Freeman). That, coupled with the lackluster year the Yanks have put together, Cashman and co. would certainly be willing to spend big on a multi-year deal for Cody.
#3 Blake Snell – San Diego Padres
If I had made this list before June, Snell wouldn’t have cracked the top 10. However, over the past few months Blake Snell has looked more like the 2019-version of himself than the middling rotation piece he started the year as. He posted an MLB best 0.87 ERA in the month of June, and since June 30th his ERA sits at 1.47. We all know what Snell is capable of (provided he’s left in the game long enough). If the Padres remain on their current trajectory and miss the playoffs, it seems likely Snell will test the market.
Notable Stats: 9-8 | 2.63 ERA | 1.29 WHIP | 11.84 K/9
Potential landing spots:
- Cincinnati Reds: It seems clear the Reds will pick up a starter this offseason, but we haven’t actually seen proof their ownership will make a big move. Snell may actually be the more affordable option amongst the top arms, and he would fit incredibly well in that clubhouse.
- Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox aren’t having such a bad year after all. Though most preseason projections put them below .500, they are currently 62-56 and only 3 games out of a Wild Card spot. Chris Sale has looked great this year, and some of the younger arms like Bello have looked promising, too. Snell could turn a middling rotation into a good one, and while these aren’t the 2013 Sox, the organization will always be able to attract high end talent.
#2 Josh Hader – San Diego Padres
While many will argue that it’s a mistake to rank a reliever ahead of a starter, I disagree. There are fewer shut-down closers in the game nowadays, and one of them is locked up in a multi-year deal with the Mets. While names like Felix Bautista and Emmanuel Clase have come into view, Josh Hader remains an elite closer with proven postseason experience. Those playoff stats: 1.36 ERA, 33 Ks in 16 innings, 5 saves.
Notable Stats: 0-1 | 0.86 ERA | 26 Saves | 0.94 WHIP | 13.76 K/9
Potential landing spots:
- Atlanta Braves: It’s been a long time since Craig Kimbrel lit Turner Field on fire with his shut-down stuff. Raisel Iglesias is by no means a sub-par closer, but he doesn’t have the consistency and dominance of Hader’s stuff. Can you imagine if this Braves team had Hader at the back of the bullpen? Plus, we know that Liberty Media Group is willing to spend.
- Philadelphia Phillies: While the Rangers could potentially get in on the Hader sweepstakes, something tells me he’s staying in the National League. The Phils have needed a better closer for a long time, and while the aforementioned Kimbrel has performed well this season, he’s clearly in the final third of his career.
#1 Shohei Ohtani – Los Angeles Angels
I wish there was a way to quantify the gap between Ohtani and everyone else, both with regard to MLB free agents and overall on-field significance. I could tell you how much WAR he has (9.2), and how much higher that is than everyone else’s, but the fact is, it wouldn’t come close to adequately capturing the reality of his talent. Ohtani has quickly become a cultural institution, an international ambassador for the sport, and the great equalizer in a game of heavy-duty push and pull. Whichever team lands him is sure to offer a contract that starts with a 6, not to mention the other niceties they’ll need to wrap it in.
Notable Stats (hitting): .305/.408/.665 | 1.073 OPS | 41 HRs/84 RBIs | 186 OPS+
Notable Stats (pitching): 10-5 | 3.17 ERA | 1.06 WHIP | 11.4 K/9
Potential landing spots:
- Los Angeles Dodgers: Surprise, surprise. One of the MLB’s best organizations is sure to be at the top of list for legitimate suitors in the Shohei sweepstakes. They’ve been clearing capital to prepare for a move like this, they have the star power and mentality to attract him, and he’d barely have to move from where he lives. Too perfect? Maybe, but probably not.
- Baltimore Orioles: We know that Shohei wants to win and go somewhere that will put players in a position to do that. Baltimore not only has a team that can contend right now, they also have the best farm system in all of baseball. An artillery like that means long-term success, and a fan-base that absolutely adores its players.
Did I get it wrong? Give us a shout on X and tell me what you’d change.
