Graphic by the College Football Playoff
The home teams went 4-0 in the first-ever playoff games held on campus. With the first round in the books, the Power Rankings gain more permanence toward the top.
1. Oregon (13-0) (Last Week #1) (#1 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #1 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Oregon’s #1 ranking just looks better and better. Seeing their two biggest wins of the season absolutely crush ACC and SEC opponents in the first round has to feel good for the Ducks and what they’ve accomplished this year. Now they get a rematch with Ohio State. Given their last four meetings, Ohio State-Oregon is becoming a low key rivalry. 2010 Ohio State wins Rose Bowl over Oregon. 2015 Ohio State wins national championship over Oregon. 2021 Oregon upsets Ohio State in the Horseshoe. 2024 Oregon holds on to win by one at home. Now for game five of this series we’re in the Rose Bowl and in the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff.
2. Boise State (12-1) (Last Week #2) (#9 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #8 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Boise will get Penn State in the Broncos home away from home which is Glendale, Arizona. Between Ashton Jeanty, Kaytron Allen, and Nicholas Singleton expect a lot of running the football in this Fiesta Bowl. And never underestimate the Boise State magic that happens in the desert.
3. Notre Dame (12-1) (Last Week #3) (#5 College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #3 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Notre Dame is where every Irish fan wants them to be right now. They dominated an in-state foe at home to advance to the quarterfinals of the playoff. This team seems to get better with every game. Their chances against Georgia in the Sugar Bowl would be good anyway, but they become great if Al Golden’s defense is going up against a new quarterback. People have bashed Indiana for their loss in South Bend more than they’ve praised Notre Dame. Notre Dame is a team that just keeps getting better from the waterboy to the head coach every single game. This is a chance for Notre Dame to be as back and as relevant as they have been since the end of the Lou Holtz Era.
4. Arizona State (11-2) (Last Week #6) (#12 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #10 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
A tall task for the Sun Devils now. They go into the heart of SEC country to play that conference’s runner-up in the Peach Bowl. Texas has a large talent gap over Arizona State, but never count out ASU. They have a team of fighters who will not be cowed by the Longhorns’ history and big-name players. Arizona State will go as Cam Skattebo goes.
5. Georgia (11-2) (Last Week #7) (#2 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #2 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
I’m going to take this time to remind people that Georgia should have been left out of the playoff after Carson Beck per the Jordan Travis Rule. This is why most people hated Florida State getting screwed in 2023, because they knew this rule would never apply to ESPN’s conference the SEC. Now the Dawgs get to have the fun of trying to beat an on-fire Notre Dame team with a new quarterback making his first start. With the Big Ten flopping like I kind of guessed they would, I speak for most people tired of the SEC when I say go Irish!
6. Texas (12-2) (Last Week #9) (#3 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #4 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Texas seems like a great team that has a hard time consistently playing their best football. They were all over Clemson but let the Tigers have a second wind late. Arizona State is very similar to Clemson in how they play and will pose an even greater challenge to Texas. Texas will need to lean on the advantage their great offensive line will have against Arizona State’s defense.
7. Ohio State (11-2) (Last Week #13) (#6 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #6 and #7 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The Buckeyes surprised me. A lot! They are like Texas in their struggle with consistency. Especially in these big games. Nothing will be surprising any longer though. You just simply don’t know who will show up with this team. If you get the team that just bullied Tennessee they’re going to win the Rose Bowl and go on to the semifinals. If you get the team that lost to their rival for the fourth straight time they’ll get beat worse than SMU did. That said, there seemed to be a different kind of determination to the Ohio State team that just beat Tennessee 42-17.
8. Penn State (12-2) (Last Week #10) (#4 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #5 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
This is a game that Penn State would have normally struggled in under James Franklin and they crushed SMU. They are like Ohio State in that there are still questions as to if they can win when met with equal talent on the big stage. They advance to the Fiesta Bowl to take on Boise State in the quarterfinals. There they’ll have a further chance to prove that their big game struggles under Franklin are behind them. But they’ll have to stop Ashton Jeanty from making history if they hope to reverse that trend and show they are on the rise.
9. Indiana (11-2) (Last Week #5) (#8 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #9 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Indiana had very poor outings against the two best teams they played and lost both games. That being said, people need to understand how huge of a deal going 11-2 at Indiana is. It’s like the Cleveland Browns playing in their first Super Bowl. I’d put this team up against the whining 9-3s of the SEC too. Alabama, Ole Miss, and South Carolina wouldn’t have done any better this year. This is a season that Hoosier fans, Curt Cignetti, and football in the state of Indiana should be proud of. This is why the Hoosiers remain high in these Power Rankings.
10. BYU (10-2) (Last Week #14) (#17 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #17 and #18 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The way the first round shook out, with the home teams blowing away the visiting teams BYU has a chance to show they should have been in the playoff. With a win over Colorado this week in the Alamo Bowl, the Cougars would make the case that they belonged more than an SMU team that they had beaten this year, a Tennessee team that had the same record as them and got blown away, and an Indiana team that they would then have even record with. It would also give them a solid foundation if they were to be a Big 12 leader again in 2025.
11. Miami (10-2) (Last Week #15) (#13 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #15 and #16 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The Hurricanes will try to make the same argument as BYU will attempt to make. Miami takes on Iowa State. With a win, they can argue that the wrong ACC at-large team was taken in SMU and that they were as good or better as an 11-2 Indiana and as good as Tennessee was before they played Ohio State. Also, like BYU, a strong finish would help them if they found themselves on the bubble again in 2025.
12. Tennessee (10-3) (Last Week #10) (#7 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #7 and #6 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
I know I just finished saying BYU and Miami will play to try and make the case that they deserved a playoff spot, maybe even over Tennessee. However, the Vols deserved their playoff berth. As a program they’re trending in the right direction with Josh Heupel, and Nico Iamaleava will continue to improve every game. They’ll miss Dylan Sampson but Tennessee should be a playoff team again in 2025.
13. SMU (11-3) (Last Week #12) (#10 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #12 and # in the AP and Coaches Polls)
I had actually thought SMU would pull the upset here but they got crushed. Kevin Jennings throwing touchdown passes to Penn State put the Mustangs in a hole that they could just never climb out of. Still, their solid regular season earned them this spot and they’ve a great first year in a Power 4 Conference. They’re only going to get better with time as they play in the ACC.
14. Army (11-2) (Last Week #4) (#22 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #19 and #18 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The Black Knights took a nasty tumble in their game of the year against Navy. The hits kept on coming when Marshall who is 10-3 and Sun Belt Conference Champions had to withdraw from the Independence Bowl against Army. The Thundering Herd lost too many players to the transfer portal to field a team. So Army is left playing 5-7 Louisiana Tech in Tech’s back yard. Still a conference championship, a historic season from your quarterback, 12 wins and a bowl victory is nothing to sneeze at.
15. Memphis (11-2) (Last Week #16) (#25 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #25 and #23 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Memphis beat a West Virginia team that is better than their record. I think that will be shown next year when their prodigal son, Rich Rodriguez, resumes coaching their program. Memphis had a season to be proud of and in which they showcased why they are at the top of the short list of any further expansion by the ACC or the Big 12. Whoever gets them will not only boost their own conference but weaken those competing with them.
16. Ohio (11-3) (Last Week #18) (Unranked in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked # in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The Bobcats looked like they didn’t miss a step with their head coach jumping ship (to Charlotte of all places) after they won a MAC Championship. They defeated a solid, 9-5 Jacksonville State in the Cure Bowl and have closed their season incredibly strong. This type of year can lay a strong foundation for the future to where sooner than later the Bobcats will be competing for the Group of Five playoff berth.
17. UNLV (11-3) (Last Week #19) (#24 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #24 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
UNLV is another team in a great spot as a program. With Dan Mullen, a proven good coach, coming in to take over for Barry Odom UNLV will stay near the top of the Mountain West. That will keep them in playoff contention like they were this year and in a good position as conference foundations, particularly in the west, continue to be shaky.
18. Iowa State (10-3) (Last Week #20) (#18 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #18 and #19 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
After watching the first round of the playoff from home, ISU has to be kicking themselves. They could’ve made a strong showing had they won some games they should have and made the playoff. All they can do now is try to win the Pop Tart Bowl and lay the foundation for a run in 2025.
19. Sam Houston State (10-3) (Unranked Last Week) (Unranked in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Unranked in the AP and Coaches Polls)
In only their second season in the FBS and after going 3-9 in their first the Bearkats get to double-digit wins. After only two years in the FBS Sam Houston is already competing at the top of their conference.
20. Clemson (10-4) (Last Week #11) (#16 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #13 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The good news for 2024 Clemson is that they won the ACC Championship and earned a College Football Playoff berth. The bad news is they went 0-3 against the SEC. They lost to rivals Georgia and South Carolina and were bounced from the playoff by Texas. It’s a different era than 2016 and 2018 and while the Tigers are still atop of the ACC they got to find ways to beat teams outside of their conference again.
21. Marshall (10-3) (Last Week #17) (Unranked in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Unranked # in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Marshall is such a strange case to look at. It’s unusual for teams to win as much as they did with as much talent both on the field and on the sideline and then to fall apart like this. Their coach left for a lateral job to a team in the same conference that just went 1-11. So many players followed him into the portal that they didn’t have enough to field a team in the Independence Bowl against Army. A sad way for a good season for Marshall to end.
22. Louisiana (10-3) (Last Week #21) (Unranked in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Unranked in the AP and Coaches Polls)
It doesn’t help you when the team you lost to for the conference crown then has to opt out of their bowl game because of so many transfers. But the Ragin Cajuns have a shot to get that 11th win in a bowl against a quality opponent. They take on 8-4 TCU in the New Mexico Bowl.
23. Illinois (9-3) (Last Week #22) (#20 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #21 and #25 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The Illini get to take on a 9-3 SEC team in the Citrus Bowl as Coach Bielema continues to build Illinois in to a conference title contender.
24. Alabama (9-3) (Last Week #23) (#11 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #11 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Alabama takes those people in the urine colored pants in the Our Rivals Met in the Playoff Bowl. Opt outs and draft declarations could make this a game like neither fanbase has seen this year and offer a peek into the future for both teams.
25. South Carolina (9-3) (Last Week #25) (#14 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #14 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
I had South Carolina nudge out Ole Miss mainly because Lane Kiffin can’t stop complaining about being left out of the playoff for teams that were three or four games better than his team. At first it was cool to see a coach still advocating for his players but he kept doing it to the point that it was very irritating and that people who didn’t have a horse in the race were becoming glad Ole Miss wasn’t included in the playoff.
Actual First Round
5. Texas (11-2) vs. 12. Clemson (10-3)
4:00 PM Saturday, December 21st, 2024 – Austin, Texas
6. Penn State (12-2) defeated 11. SMU (11-3)
Noon Saturday, December 21st, 2024 – State College, Pennsylvania
7. Notre Dame (12-1) defeated 10. Indiana (11-2)
8:00 PM Friday, December 20th, 2024 – South Bend, Indiana
8. Ohio State (11-2) defeated 9. Tennessee (10-3)
8:00 PM Saturday, December 21st, 2024 – Columbus, Ohio
Actual Quarterfinals
1. Oregon (13-0) vs. 8. Ohio State (11-2) in the Rose Bowl
Wednesday, January 1st, 2025 – Pasadena, California
2. Georgia (11-2) vs. 7. Notre Dame (12-1) in the Sugar Bowl
Wednesday, January 1st, 2025 – New Orleans, Louisiana
3. Boise State (12-1) vs. 6. Penn State (12-2) in the Peach Bowl
Wednesday, January 1st, 2025 – Atlanta, Georgia
4. Arizona State (11-2) vs. 5. Texas (12-2) in the Fiesta Bowl
Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – Phoenix, Arizona
Projected Semifinals
1. Oregon (14-0) vs. 5. Texas (13-2) in the Cotton Bowl
Friday, January 10th, 2025 – Dallas, Texas
3. Boise State (13-1) vs. 7. Notre Dame (13-1) in the Orange Bowl
Thursday, January 9th, 2025 – Miami, Florida
Projected Championship
Monday, January 20th, 2025 – Atlanta, Georgia
1. Oregon (15-0) over 7. Notre Dame (14-1)
Projected 2024 National Champions are the 16-0 Oregon Ducks
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My Criteria for the Power Rankings
Winning Matters: If you’re undefeated, you’ll not be ranked below a team with one or more loss. If you have a better record but play an easier schedule, you’ll still be ahead because you will have completed the objective of winning more.
Expectations And Exceptions: If you’re Indiana and Georgia and having similar seasons, Indiana is going to be ranked higher because being in playoff contention is the expectation for Georgia and it’s above and beyond exception for Indiana.
Indisputable Evidence: Rarely have teams with the same record jump one another but if done, make clear why.
