Graphic by the College Football Playoff
No team has accomplished its 2024 regular season goals like Oregon. Notre Dame, Boise State, Texas and SMU round out the top five of the Power Rankings
1. Oregon (12-0) (Last Week #1) (#1 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #1 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The Ducks’ biggest win lost some luster, but Oregon still looks like the undisputed #1 team in the nation. They’ll take on Penn State in Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship on Saturday. Dan Lanning has Oregon poised to be the #1 seed in the 12-team College Football Playoff. They have to beat a Penn State team that hasn’t played for a Big Ten title since 2016 and will be pulling out all the stops.
2. Notre Dame (11-1) (Last Week #2) (#4 College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #4 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The Irish need to sign their coach to a long-term contract right now. The longer they wait, the more likely Ohio State sobers up, fires Day, and calls Marcus Freeman. Freeman has done a tremendous job. I said after their NIU loss that he could have them go 11-1 and get into the playoff and he proved me right. That’s why they are #2 in my Power Rankings. The scale of how big it is to come back to make the playoff after losing to a MAC team can’t be understated.
3. Boise State (11-1) (Last Week #3) (#10 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #10 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The Broncos march toward the playoffs and the Heisman for Ashton Jeanty goes steadily on. They closed their regular season with a win over Oregon State at home on the blue turf. In the 27-18 win, Ashton Jeanty continued his assault on the record books. His 2,288 rushing yards is good enough for fifth all-time in a season and he’s not done yet. Jeanty is my leader for the Heisman he’ll have the advantage over Travis Hunter who is maybe an inch behind him. That advantage will be his team playing a 13th game for a conference championship and playoff berth while Hunter is at home.
4. Texas (11-1) (Last Week #5) (#2 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #2 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Texas is in a unique spot in the SEC. All the other teams in the conference have been whining about how beat up they get playing each other. How despite having more losses and worse losses than other teams vying for at-large playoff berths they deserve it. Texas can kind of shut that narrative down with a win over Georgia on Saturday. They’d avenge their only loss and be no worse than a top-two seed in the playoff. They’re in good shape though that even with a loss they should be in. Also, respect and props to Steve Sarkisian for not letting his team do a flag-planting. Acting like you’ve been there before and letting the scoreboard talk shows character. It especially shows character when across the country there was disgraceful sportsmanship with teams doing the very thing and causing fights.
5. SMU (11-1) (Last Week #6) (#8 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #8 and # in the AP and Coaches Polls)
SMU is a great story and one of four teams that can win a Power 4 Conference Championship in their first season in their new league. Rhett Lashlee is a good coach. Kevin Jennings and Brashard Smith are a dynamic and fantastic backfield. SMU should be a lock, even if they fall to Clemson. Mustang fans better enjoy Coach Lashlee and hope he doesn’t get invited to return home to Arkansas. I’m pulling for SMU not only because they’re fun to watch and are underdogs. But because the better they play the better the BYU team I love looks for giving them their only loss in a defensive struggle early in 2024.
6. Penn State (11-1) (Last Week #7) (#3 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #3 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
James Franklin is in a very similar situation to Ryan Day. He beats the crap out of teams he should (Day did until last week) and struggles in big games. Franklin and Penn State now have two chances to reverse that hallmark of his tenure. They’ll play for a Big Ten Championship for the first time since 2016 when they take on #1 Oregon. They should also be a playoff lock and have another big game opportunity in December. But James Franklin better watch out if in the three biggest games of the season, he goes 0-3.
7. Indiana (11-1) (Last Week #9) (#9 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #9 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The Hoosiers and Coach Cignetti have to be kicking themselves for their failure against Ohio State after seeing how a Michigan team they thumped outcoached the only team to beat them this year. Most of the national media sees Indiana as an upstart. They’re seen as a team that no one (especially in the South) wants in the playoff but that at 11-1 in a Power 4 conference, can’t be kept out. Curt Cignetti and his Hoosiers will let that chip on their shoulder from all of their doubters light a fire under them and give a good showing in the playoff.
8. Army (10-1) (Last Week #10) (#24 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #24 and #23 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Army is in a unique and frustrating position. Having their final game played after selection Sunday has never been a factor for them until his year. If UNLV upsets Boise and Army takes care of Tulane, Army will be 11-1 and UNLV 11-2, and both hoping for that playoff spot. I don’t think a team that’s 11-1, a conference champion, and their lone loss being against a great top-5 team should be left out of the playoff. But Army likely will be in favor of a 9-3 SEC team that lost to teams that Army would beat. Still, Army has history to play for. Getting their quarterback to be a Heisman finalist and a possible school record of wins in a season.
9. Georgia (10-2) (Last Week #11) (#5 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #5 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Georgia is putting the lucky in Lucky Dogs. The main reason people are propping up Georgia is because of what they did in 2021 and 2022. The SEC isn’t the same monster they were. All but one of their ranked teams have two or more losses. The one with only a single loss has played the easiest schedule of them all. The concrete that is the portal and NIL is settling more every day and leveling the playing field. Add the 12-team playoff field to that and it’s a brand new era of college football and the SEC is going to have to prove they’re the top conference. Not just assume that nothing has changed and they deserve every benefit of the doubt they get. That starts with Georgia.
10. Tennessee (10-2) (Last Week #12) (#7 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #6 and #8 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The Vols really want that Arkansas game back right now. That said, they should still be in the playoff and rightly so. They beat Alabama who beat South Carolina, and they beat Kentucky who gave Ole Miss an ugly loss. Between Tim Banks’ defense and Dylan Sampson, Tennessee will be the favorite in their first-round game whether they’re on the road or at home. If freshman Nico Iamaleava can play up to his potential Tennessee can beat anyone.
11. Iowa State (10-2) (Last Week #22) (#16 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #16 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
ISU better win with Matt Campbell while they can. He’s one of many coaches who could be tagged for a bigger program. He seems pretty content and happy in Ames but you never know. Iowa State has a shot at a Big 12 title and a playoff berth as they take on Arizona State in Dallas at noon on Saturday. ASU and ISU seem very evenly matched and this game is almost a coin flip.
12. Arizona State (10-2) (Last Week #17) (#15 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #12 and #13 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Even though I have ISU ranked ahead of them, I think Arizona State wins the Big 12 title. Both teams are well-coached and have good quarterbacks but the x-factor in favor of ASU is Cam Skattebo. If he gets going in the running game, ASU is going to the playoff only a year after a bowl ban.
13. BYU (10-2) (Last Week #18) (#18 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #17 and #18 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
BYU should get an at-large bid over any of the three-loss SEC teams. They have a win just as good (SMU, the SEC teams Georgia) and even losses (Kansas to Vanderbilt and Kentucky. Arizona State to Tennessee and LSU). But the Cougars have the wrong conference patch on their shoulders. They’ll likely settle for the Alamo Bowl against USC or something like that. BYU needs a strong bowl showing though. If it were to be in the playoff they’d need to give a competitive game or hurt their future at-large chances. If they go to a bowl game like the Alamo Bowl they need to win it. 11-2 with a win over your primary rival and a bowl win a solid season for anyone and a special one for BYU and would be a huge building block going forward.
14. Miami (10-2) (Last Week #8) (#12 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #14 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The only team that choked away their season more than the Hurricanes at the finish line was the Buckeyes. Unfortunately for Miami both of their losses were in November and likely will have them bounced from the playoff. Even with the same record as Ohio State that’ll be enough for them to be left out. Still, the Hurricanes are trending in the right direction and need a strong finish to keep it going that way for Mario Cristobal.
15. Memphis (10-2) (Last Week #15) (#25 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #25 and #24 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
After how they ran over Tulane, Memphis is kicking themselves wishing they had one of their losses to either UTSA or Navy back. With no way to the AAC Championship, Memphis doesn’t have much hope of playoffs or a big-name bowl, but 11-2 would be fantastic for them. Especially as they show out for the Big 12 and ACC. Memphis is in a great spot as a program right now. I only had ASU and ISU jump them because they have the same record but they’re playing for a playoff spot on Saturday. Miami and BYU because while their chances are very slight they aren’t completely gone for the playoff. Memphis however doesn’t have that chance, but like I said does have the chance to have a great year.
16. UNLV (10-2) (Last Week #20) (#20 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #19 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
UNLV has a real chance to not only win their conference but make the playoff as the highest-ranking Group of Five Champion. Beating Boise State would likely vault them into that spot, though there would be a rightful conversation about Army possibly getting that slot if they beat Tulane. Regardless of post-season implications, 11-2 and Mountain West Champions would be a great year for UNLV.
17. Louisiana (10-2) (Last Week #19) (Unranked in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Unranked in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The current leaders in the Sun Belt Conference are getting no love from the national media to the point of disrespect. If UNLV upsets Boise State and Louisiana beats Marshall the Ragin’ Cajuns should be in the conversation with UNLV and Army about who is the best Group of Five Champion. They would have earned at least that much.
18. Illinois (9-3) (Last Week #22) (#21 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #21 and #25 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The SEC 9-3’s have been shamelessly pitching for their teams to jump teams with better records to get into the College Football Playoff and Illini coach Bret Bielema was having none of it.
Illinois fans have to be very happy with their coach and the trajectory their program is taking right now.
19. Alabama (9-3) (Last Week #23) (#11 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #11 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Bama is a good team, and may just get into the playoff from being Bama. I don’t think so, but the SEC media is ESPN. Just a fact of life. Kalen DeBoer is a good coach and Jalen Milroe is a good quarterback. If they run it back in 2025 I think they’ll have a championship-level season. They’ll likely make noise in the playoff if they get in this year. But they shouldn’t get in this year. Losing to two teams that don’t make a bowl game without beating you should keep you out, even if you did beat Georgia.
20. Ole Miss (9-3) (Last Week #24) (#13 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #15 and #16 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Ole Miss took care of their business in the Egg Bowl beating their rival Mississippi State 26-14. Georgia losing is a mixed bag for the Rebels. On the one hand a team in front of them in the rankings dropped but on the other hand their best win just lost and is still going to play in the SEC Championship Game for an automatic playoff berth. If Texas can knock Georgia all the way out for the SEC title, Ole Miss is one step closer. It may come down to which is a worse loss Ole Miss to Kentucky or Alabama to Vanderbilt? Bama would get the nod just out of brand recognition if they and Ole Miss are essentially tied for a playoff berth.
21. South Carolina (9-3) (Last Week #25) (#14 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #13 and #12 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
South Carolina is good but on the outside looking in. Their best win Texas A&M finished 8-4 and they have a head-to-head loss to 9-3 Alabama putting them firmly behind the Crimson Tide. Still, South Carolina is a team going in the right direction with a good young coach in Shane Beamer leading them.
22. Colorado (9-3) (Unranked Last Week) (#23 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #20 and #22 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Colorado fell out of the Big 12 Championship and that hurts them in rankings and hurts their star players’ Heisman chances. But the Buffaloes have a lot to be proud of in year two of the Coach Prime Era. Sheduer Sanders is one of the best quarterbacks in college football this season and Travis Hunter is a Heisman finalist and the favorite by many. Colorado is on the rise.
23. Duke (9-3) (Unranked Last Week) (Unranked in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Unranked in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Despite a brand new head coach and their old one doing great in his first year at his new job, the Blue Devils went 9-3 and were one of the better teams in the ACC. They beat instate foe Wake Forest in a thriller to close their regular season. They now await their bowl fate and a chance to finish with double-digit wins.
24. Missouri (9-3) (Unranked Last Week) (#19 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #22 and #20 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
While not as good as their 11-2 campaign from 2023, the Tigers didn’t take a step backward. They beat the teams they were supposed to but didn’t get any wins against the teams they needed to beat. They have one more opportunity to that depending on which bowl game they play and who they face.
25. Marshall (9-3) (Unranked Last Week) (Unranked in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Unranked # in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The Thundering Herd are one of only 18 teams playing for a conference championship this coming weekend. That’s something to be proud of and something that sets them apart from other teams with similar records and why they round out the top 25 in the Power Rankings.
Ohio State got dropped from the Power Rankings this week because they did the worst thing they possibly could. They folded to their rival again, played themselves out of a Big Ten Championship opportunity and onto the bubble of the College Football Playoff. Their loss was that bad. And if any upset happens on conference championship weekend it could burst for them. If say Clemson upsets SMU, the 10-3 Tigers and the 11-2 Mustangs will both be in, leaving one less spot for a team whose coach has lost his players. Most of all, on their home field, in the biggest game of the year against a team they were favored to beat by three touchdowns, the game they had to have, they laid an egg.
My Vote for the Top 12
- Oregon 13-0
- Texas 12-1
- SMU 12-1
- Boise State 12-1
- Notre Dame 11-1
- Georgia 10-3
- Tennessee 10-2
- Penn State 11-2
- Arizona State 11-2
- Indiana 11-1
- BYU 10-2
- Army 12-1
College Football Playoff Rankings and Projections
- Oregon 13-0
- Texas 12-1
- SMU 12-1
- Boise State 12-1
- Notre Dame 11-1
- Penn State 11-2
- Georgia 10-3
- Ohio State 10-2
- Tennessee 10-2
- Arizona State 11-2
- Indiana 11-1
- Miami 10-2
I had to drop Army this week. The Black Knights did nothing wrong and are still having one of the best seasons in college football in 2024. That’s reflected in the Power Rankings above. But the committee has no love for Army, and their AAC title game opponent Tulane getting their third loss doesn’t help them. I would put Army in the playoff but I don’t think the committee will so my projections above must reflect what I think will happen not what I want to happen.That I’ve added above before my bracket predictions.
The final two spots get murky. A lot of SEC stans will be baying for the 9-3s to get in. They want Bama, Ole Miss, Mizzou, or South Carolina to get those at-large berths. Miami at 10-2 and Army at 11-1 possibly 12-1 make decent cases. I don’t think Ohio State deserves an at-large berth. Here’s why I went with Ohio State and BYU though. Ohio State beat two teams that can’t be left out, Penn State and Indiana. Despite those fluke wins, the committee won’t leave out Ohio State with two wins over top-12 teams. BYU should be in if ASU and SMU win their conference championships. The loss to ASU doesn’t hurt as bad if ASU wins the Big 12 and a win over a top 3 seed, ACC Champion, SMU puts them over the top.
Bama gets left out for losing to two different 6-6 teams. Ole Miss for losing to 4-7 Kentucky and 7-5 Florida. South Carolina for losing head-to-head to Bama and Ole Miss. Missouri for not beating an SEC team with a winning record. Texas will beat Georgia on Saturday and the loss won’t eliminate the Bulldogs but with the backlash from the ACC and Bama’s lone good win not looking so well will be enough to put Miami in on Sunday.
How It Plays Out
First Round
5. Notre Dame (11-1) vs. 12. Miami (10-2)
Saturday, December 21st, 2024 – South Bend, Indiana
6. Georgia (10-3) vs. 11. Indiana (11-1)
Saturday, December 21st, 2024 – Athens, Georgia
7. Tennessee (10-2) vs. 10. Penn State (11-2)
Friday, December 20th, 2024 – Knoxville, Tennessee
8. Ohio State (10-2) vs. 9. Arizona State (11-2)
Saturday, December 21st, 2024 – Columbus, Ohio
Quarterfinals
1. Oregon (13-0) vs. 9. Arizona State (12-2) in the Rose Bowl
Wednesday, January 1st, 2025 – Pasadena, California
2. Texas (12-1) vs. 7. Tennessee (11-2) in the Sugar Bowl
Wednesday, January 1st, 2025 – New Orleans, Louisiana
3. SMU (12-1) vs. 6. Georgia (11-3) in the Peach Bowl
Wednesday, January 1st, 2025 – Atlanta, Georgia
4. Boise State (12-1) vs. 5. Notre Dame (12-1) in the Fiesta Bowl
Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – Phoenix, Arizona
Semifinals
1. Oregon (14-0) vs. 5. Notre Dame (13-1) in the Cotton Bowl
Friday, January 10th, 2025 – Dallas, Texas
2. Texas (13-1) vs. 3. SMU (13-1) in the Orange Bowl
Thursday, January 9th, 2025 – Miami, Florida
Championship
Monday, January 20th, 2025 – Atlanta, Georgia
1. Oregon (15-0) over 2. Texas (14-1)
The 2024 National Champions are the 16-0 Oregon Ducks
Thanks for checking in on my Power Rankings and my college football playoff projections! If you like my work at all please follow me on X and give me feedback! Thank you!
My Criteria for the Power Rankings
Winning Matters: If you’re undefeated, you’ll not be ranked below a team with one or more loss. If you have a better record but play an easier schedule, you’ll still be ahead because you will have completed the objective of winning more.
Expectations And Exceptions: If you’re Indiana and Georgia and having similar seasons, Indiana is going to be ranked higher because being in playoff contention is the expectation for Georgia and it’s above and beyond exception for Indiana.
Indisputable Evidence: Rarely have teams with the same record jump one another but if done, make clear why.
