Graphic by the College Football Playoff
With dozens of classic rivalry games approaching along with Thanksgiving this week, college football promises to finish strong. Here are my Power Rankings as the regular season heads into its final week.
1. Oregon (11-0) (Last Week #1) (#1 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #1 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The undisputed #1 team in the nation had a bye this week before they host their border rival Washington to end the season. The Ducks have secured a Big Ten Championship berth already and likely no worse than an at-large playoff berth. It is fantastic season for Dan Lanning, Dillon Gabriel, and company.
2. Notre Dame (10-1) (Last Week #4) (#5 College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #5 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
After their confusing loss to NIU, Notre Dame has been on a tear against just about everyone they’ve played. A win on the West Coast against USC and they’re in the College Football Playoffs. Haters can criticize their schedule and loss to NIU all they want but an 11-1 Notre Dame is a playoff team, the question only of seeding.
3. Boise State (10-1) (Last Week #5) (#11 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #11 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The Broncos are not only still on track for the playoffs but with the turmoil in the Big 12 (Boise should go there instead of the zombified Pac-12) are hoping for a first-round bye. They survived Wyoming to clinch a Mountain West Championship game berth. Ashton Jeanty is still the leader in the Heisman race and Boise is right where they want to be with only a game against Oregon State left to play.
4. Ohio State (10-1) (Last Week #6) (#2 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #2 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Being the one in 10-1 for two different teams was almost enough for me to jump my Buckeyes up to #2. I didn’t for the simple reason that they have to finish. If they beat that team up north and get that anchor off Ryan Day’s back, they’ll jump up to #2 and we’ll have #1 vs. #2 for the Big Ten Championship. But Day and his Buckeyes have to get it done first, and I believe they will.
5. Texas (10-1) (Last Week #7) (#3 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #3 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Texas is in the driver’s seat in the SEC and nationally. If they win the first Lone Star Shootout since 2010, they get the rematch with Georgia they are chomping at the bit for. If Texas keeps winning they’ll beat their rival, avenge their only loss, win their conference, and be a top two seed in the playoffs.
6. SMU (10-1) (Last Week #9) (#9 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #9 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
There is more than one great college football team in the state of Texas. SMU is a complete football team and clinched a shot at the ACC Championship in their first season in the league. They’ll play either Miami or Clemson for a playoff spot. Kevin Jennings and Brashard Smith are a potent backfield and SMU is a great team that is swinging for elite.
7. Penn State (10-1) (Last Week #10) (#4 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #4 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Minnesota and Penn State have a crazy little rivalry going on and always play each other tough. This game was no exception to that rule and Penn State ended up with a gutsy win. Penn State is now sitting pretty. If they defeat Maryland in their finale next week they’ll be 11-1 and almost guaranteed a playoff berth. If a couple of things bounce their way they may get to play Oregon for a Big Ten championship. Regardless, Penn State is in a “win and you’re in” situation.
8. Miami (10-1) (Last Week #11) (#6 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #8 and #7 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Maimi bounced back from the Georgia Tech upset and are controlling their own destiny. If they beat a scrappy 8-3 Syracuse this week they will play SMU for the ACC Championship and a playoff berth, and even a loss that would put them at 11-2 wouldn’t eliminate them from the playoffs necessarily. Cam Ward and Mario Cristobal have this team right where they want to be.
9. Indiana (10-1) (Last Week #2) (#10 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #10 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Despite the gut wrenching loss, the Hoosiers are in the same position as their Penn State counterparts. Win your finale to get to 11-1 and you’re in the College Football Playoff. Have some chaos happen and you get to play Oregon just up the road for a Big Ten championship. Indiana still controls their own destiny to win and get in.
10. Army (9-1) (Last Week #3) (Unranked in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #25 and #22 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
I thought Army would likely fall to Notre Dame but I didn’t see a 49-14 beatdown happening. The good news for Army is they can still make history for their program with winning and maybe even getting into the playoffs. First, they got to beat a scrappy UTSA, and beat Tulane, and then hope the CFP Committee respects their historic season, and gives them a pass for playing America’s Game, the Army-Navy game, after Selection Sunday. But it doesn’t look like it considering they were dropped from the CFP Top 25 altogether.
11. Georgia (9-2) (Last Week #17) (#7 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #6 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
And just like that Georgia clinches a spot in the SEC Championship Game. They’re likely in the playoffs as long as they beat Georgia Tech. 10-3 Georgia would still get in. They’ll play either Texas or Texas A&M. The Dawgs have already beaten Texas and are once again the SEC frontrunner. They can’t overlook rival Georgia Tech though. If they were upset by the Yellowjackets and beaten in the SEC Championship Game, they would probably be left of the playoffs with a 9-4 record. They have everything to play for, just the way Kirby Smart and Bulldog fans like it.
12. Tennessee (9-2) (Last Week #18) (#8 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #7 and #8 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The Vols may be out of the SEC Championship hunt but they still have a strong playoff resume for an at-large berth. They have to beat a scrappy Vanderbilt though and hope for Texas to beat Texas A&M. They can then point to Ole Miss, Alabama, Texas A&M and South Carolina and say, hey at 10-2 we should easily be above all these three-loss teams.
13. Clemson (9-2) (Last Week #19) (#12 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #12 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Clemson crushed the Citadel as they were the ACC’s team with a chickenhawk Saturday with a November game against an FCS team. Clemson is on the outside looking in right now for the ACC. They need Syracuse to beat Miami to get to the title game against SMU. Clemson is a bubble team. If Miami wins, that bubble bursts, even if the Tigers win the Palmetto Bowl over South Carolina.
14. Tulane (9-2) (Last Week #20) (17# in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #18 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The Green Wave had this week off before their regular season finale against Memphis on Thanksgiving Night. While their AAC Championship Game berth is already clinched, they have to beat their high-powered Mississippi River rival to keep their playoff hopes alive.
15. Memphis (9-2) (Last Week #21) (Unranked in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Unranked and #23 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Memphis also had the week off and the Tigers would love nothing more than to dash their rival’s playoff hopes. The Tigers are playing to keep their program at a high level and finish 11-2. Doing this will put them at the top of any Power Four conference’s list for possible expansion.
16. Iowa State (9-2) (Last Week #22) (#18 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #17 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Iowa State controls their own destiny in the Big 12 because the tiebreaker with BYU and Colorado is that ISU beat Kansas while the latter two lost to the Jayhawks. They win Farmageddon against Kansas State and they are a win away from the college football playoff. But K-State is rebounding and will be tough to beat at home.
17. Arizona State (9-2) (Last Week #16) (#16 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #14 and #15 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
ASU got lucky. They screwed around trying to run out the clock and should’ve been penalized three different times for what would have been more than 30 yards and that would’ve put BYU’s Hail Mary into the endzone for the win over ASU. Still, I can’t fault the Sun Devils for the refs any more than you can excuse BYU for the refs. They control their own destiny, beat Arizona and you’re in the Big 12 Championship Game. Cam Skattebo is a fun player to watch play football.
18. BYU (9-2) (Last Week #8) (#19 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #19 and #20 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The Big 12 officials messed up the end of the BYU game. ASU faced no penalties for causing a 15-minute delay by rushing the field early, intentional ground on fourth down, or Kenny Dillingham shouting at the refs till he was blue in the face the entire time it was taking them to get their fans off the field. Any one of these penalties gets enforced and BYU’s Haily Mary that came up three yards short gets into the end zone and wins the game. Still, BYU only has themselves to blame. For the second straight week they could have clinched a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game and they came out flat and couldn’t get out of their own way. Still, they have a shot. If they beat Houston and either ASU or ISU lose, then BYU is in.
19. Louisiana (9-2) (Unranked Last Week) (Unranked in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Unranked in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Louisiana clinched the West Division of the Sun Belt with their win over Troy. Regardless of whether they beat UL-Monroe in the regular season finale, they’ll play Marshall for the Sun Belt Championship. A conference title and a bowl win would have the Ragin Cajuns finish in the top 25 for sure.
20. UNLV (9-2) (Unranked Last Week) (#22 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #21 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
UNLV defeated San Jose State in a Friday night game that was played in a West Coast monsoon. That likely helped the Rebels in their efforts to stop the Spartans’ powerful passing game. But that doesn’t matter, winning is winning and UNLV is now 9-2. They should have no trouble against 3-8 Nevada next week in the Battle or the Fremont Cannon which would solidify their rematch with Boise for the Mountain West Championship and maybe even a playoff berth.
21. Kansas State (8-3) (Unranked Last Week) (#24 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Unranked in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Kansas State can’t make the Big 12 Championship Game or the College Football Playoffs. Even if BYU, Arizona State, and Colorado all lost and the Wildcats beat Iowa State, they’d still be on the outside looking in. But they can knock out Iowa State with BYU’s help. If BYU wins the Cougars Bowl against Houston and K-State beats ISU, the Cyclones will stay at home and BYU will play Arizona State for the Big 12 crown.
22. Illinois (8-3) (Unranked Last Week) (#23 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #22 and #25 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
If Illinois beats rival Northwestern and wins a bowl game to go 10-3, that’s going above the expectations of their program and trending in the right direction. A top-five finish in the 18-team Big Ten is nothing to scoff at. It’s proof that Brett Bielema is turning Illinois into what he made Wisconsin into. A team that can compete with anyone and compete for Big Ten titles.
23. Alabama (8-3) (Last Week #12) (#13 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #13 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The only way any three-loss team should get into the playoffs is if they win their conference. Meaning if Texas A&M were to beat Texas and then Georgia, they’d be earn a spot. Georgia will likely be in with a win over Georgia Tech even with a third loss (which should be disqualifying). Alabama, Ole Miss, South Carolina, and Missouri are out unless massive chaos happens. I’m talking Vandy beating Tennessee, Georgia Tech beating Georgia, Purdue beating Indiana, Maryland beating Penn State, and so on. This isn’t what Bama fans wanted or expected this year but there is a silver lining. Jalen Milroe may come back in 2025 and have a Michael Penix Jr.-like senior year with Kalen DeBoer
24. Ole Miss (8-3) (Last Week #14) (#14 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #15 and #16 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Ole Miss needs Georgia to win the SEC and some of that chaos above to have even a prayer of getting into the playoffs. Lane Kiffin and his Rebels still have double-digit wins and continued program stability to play for. 10-3 with a win over potential SEC Champion Georgia is a solid building block moving forward.
25. South Carolina (8-3) (Unranked Last Week) (#15 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #16 and #14 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
South Carolina had their chickenhawk Saturday that the SEC always does and won their layup game over FCS Wofford. Now they play the Palmetto Bowl with the hopes of knocking rival Clemson out of an at-large playoff berth, and a longshot one of their own.
26. Texas A&M (8-3)
27. Colorado (8-3)
28. Duke (8-3)
29. Missouri (8-3)
30. Syracuse (8-3)
Game of the Week
I had had Army being an at-large bid at 12-1 for most of the season but the committee has given them no respect at all. Their loss to Notre Dame was big but it didn’t justify dropping them from the CFP rankings altogether. Tulane has a chance to play their way into the top 12 by beating 9-2 Memphis and then 10-1 Army, but I think the Black Knights will defeat the Green Wave. That for me would then put the loser of the ACC Championship Game into the top 12. An 11-2 Miami or SMU would be more deserving than a 9-3 SEC team by a country mile.
College Football Playoff and Record Projections
- Oregon 13-0
- Texas 12-1
- SMU 12-1
- Boise State 12-1
- Ohio State 11-2
- Notre Dame 11-1
- Tennessee 10-2
- Georgia 10-3
- Iowa State 11-2
- Penn State 11-1
- Indiana 11-1
- Miami 11-2
First Round
5. Ohio State (11-2) vs. 12. Miami (11-2)
Saturday, December 21st, 2024 – Columbus, Ohio
6. Notre Dame (11-1) vs. 11. Indiana (11-1)
Saturday, December 21st, 2024 – South Bend, Indiana
7. Tennessee (10-2) vs. 10. Penn State (11-1)
Friday, December 20th, 2024 – Knoxville, Tennessee
8. Georgia (10-3) vs. 9. Iowa State (11-2)
Saturday, December 21st, 2024 – Athens, Georgia
Quarterfinals
1. Oregon (13-0) vs. 8. Georgia (11-3) in the Rose Bowl
Wednesday, January 1st, 2025 – Pasadena, California
2. Texas (12-1) vs. 7. Tennessee (11-2) in the Sugar Bowl
Wednesday, January 1st, 2025 – New Orleans, Louisiana
3. SMU (12-1) vs. 6. Notre Dame (12-1) in the Peach Bowl
Wednesday, January 1st, 2025 – Atlanta, Georgia
4. Boise State (12-1) vs. 5. Ohio State (12-2) in the Fiesta Bowl
Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – Phoenix, Arizona
Semifinals
1. Oregon (14-0) vs. 5. Ohio State (13-2) in the Cotton Bowl
Friday, January 10th, 2025 – Dallas, Texas
2. Texas (13-1) vs. 6. Notre Dame (13-1) in the Orange Bowl
Thursday, January 9th, 2025 – Miami, Florida
Championship
Monday, January 20th, 2025 – Atlanta, Georgia
1. Oregon (15-0) over 2. Texas (14-1)
2024 National Champions are the 16-0 Oregon Ducks
Thanks for checking in on my Power Rankings and my college football playoff projections! If you like my work at all please follow me on X and give me feedback! Thank you!
My Criteria for the Power Rankings
Winning Matters: If you’re undefeated, you’ll not be ranked below a team with one or more loss. If you have a better record but play an easier schedule, you’ll still be ahead because you will have completed the objective of winning more.
Expectations And Exceptions: If you’re Indiana and Georgia and having similar seasons, Indiana is going to be ranked higher because being in playoff contention is the expectation for Georgia and it’s above and beyond exception for Indiana.
Indisputable Evidence: I rarely have teams with the same record jump one another but if done, make clear why.
