College Football Playoff Bracket (Graphic by the College Football Playoff)
Penn State, Ohio State, Texas, and Notre Dame are your Final Four, and are atop the Power Rankings!
1. Notre Dame (13-1) (Last Week #3) (#5 College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #3 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Of the four teams remaining none has looked consistently good as Notre Dame. Since that loss to NIU the Fighting Irish have been dominant. The other three teams have suffered a loss within the last 40 days. Notre Dame has not. Marcus Freeman is a fantastic young coach who is proving that Notre Dame’s faith in him was well founded.
2. Texas (13-2) (Last Week #6) (#3 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #4 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The reports of the SEC’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. There is still a very good SEC team with the chance to win it all! Texas is incredibly talented and a good football team. Just because Georgia had their number this year doesn’t mean that they are flawed or can’t win. First of all they’re good. They are talented and well coached with little to no weak spots. The Longhorns are also playing in their home state, in their backyard, and despite how well Ohio State fans travel, will still have home field advantage. And we’ve seen in these playoff games how big that advantage as been. Doubt Texas as at your own peril. And be prepared to hear those awful “S-E-C!” chants again from all those southern teams who aren’t good enough to do it themselves, if Texas brings home the beef.
3. Penn State (13-2) (Last Week #8) (#4 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #5 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
I’m not surprised Penn State won but I’m surprised how dominant they were in the Fiesta Bowl. And they were dominant in every facet of the game. They made no major mistakes and exploited Boise’s. Ty Warren is the next Travis Kelce and Penn State is smartly utilizing him and will need another big game from him against Notre Dame. James Franklin, who has famously struggled on the big stage has crushed it against SMU and Boise State. Now we’ll see if he’s turned a corner as he goes up against a young, on fire Marcus Freeman and a Notre Dame team that can match Penn State talent for talent.
4. Ohio State (12-2) (Last Week #7) (#6 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #6 and #7 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
When you get the Ohio State team that gutted out a win at Penn State and stomped Indiana, you get a team that beats Tennessee and beats Oregon in the Rose Bowl. But when you get the team that doesn’t play to their own strengths you get four straight losses. When you get the former you can win four straight and win a national title. But when you get the latter, you could get embarrassed. This postseason, playing with nothing to lose and everyone to shut up has led to victories for the Buckeyes. They are playing with a championship caliber edge across the entire team. No Buckeye fans are surprised by this. If they maintain it, they will win on Friday and play for a national championship.
5. Oregon (13-1) (Last Week #1) (#1 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #1 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Only one program came into the College Football Playoff undefeated and that was the 13-0 Oregon Ducks. While the Rose Bowl was ugly it’s not a program shaking defeat. Dan Lanning and the Ducks are still crushing it on the recruiting trail and have shown they are the best of the west in the Big Ten and can go toe-to-toe with the old guard in the east of the conference. I will be very surprised if Oregon is not right back in the College Football Playoff in 2025.
6. Indiana (11-2) (Last Week #9) (#8 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #9 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Understand how huge of a deal going 11-2 at Indiana is. It’s like the Cleveland Browns playing in their first Super Bowl. I’d put this team up against the whining 9-3s of the SEC too. Alabama, Ole Miss, and South Carolina wouldn’t have done any better this year. This is a season that Hoosier fans, Curt Cignetti, and football in the state of Indiana should be proud of. This is why the Hoosiers remain high in the Power Rankings. Year two of the Cignetti Era looks to be interesting and promising for the Hoosiers in 2025.
7. Arizona State (11-3) (Last Week #4) (#12 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #10 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Of the top four seeds who won their conferences and had a bye, Arizona State was the only one still in the game in the fourth quarter. In no small part because of the heroics of Cam Skattebo. He was ridiculous in the Peach Bowl. Skattebo had 39 touches on offense for 284 total yards and three touchdowns. While he’ll be impossible to replace, Coach Dillingham and Sam Leavitt will keep Arizona State, a program that just a season ago had a postseason ban and were 3-9, right back in the Big 12 and playoff race in the fall of 2025.
8. BYU (11-2) (Last Week #10) (#17 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #17 and #18 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
No team has a better case that they should have been in the playoff than BYU. The big reason they have the high ground in that fight is that they beat SMU in SMU’s house. The Mustangs have had a good year and were deserving of their playoff spot. Their resume was good and good enough to get in. But BYU’s was better. In no small part because BYU beat them head-to-head. Their domination of Colorado and two top five draft picks was nothing short of extraordinary. They are building something in Provo and the Big 12 will take notice one way or the other. Like ASU, they had a losing record in 2023, got 11 wins in 2024, and are poised to be at the top of the Big 12 and in the hunt for the playoff in 2025.
9. Boise State (12-2) (Last Week #2) (#9 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #8 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The clock struck midnight for this Cinderella. It was a heck of a run by Boise State, the best by a current Group of Five team. Poor Ashton Jeanty was 27 yards short of Barry Sanders’ record. It may have been cheap but if I was Boise’s coach, down as big as they were late I would’ve handed it off to try and make some history. Boise has nothing to be ashamed of and 2024 is a season that the Broncos made history. Even if it wasn’t as much as they wanted to. The Broncos future is a little murky though. In 2025 they’ll be in the hunt again for the Group of Five playoff berth. But after that, with the civil war being waged between the Pac-12 and the Mountain West, those two conferences may not have enough teams to have conference championship games. Their continuing squabbling when they should be merging will have them be the bottom two teams in the Group of Six, when together they would be the best Group of Five conference, working to make a case at being the fifth Power Five again.
10. Army (12-2) (Last Week #14) (#22 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #19 and #18 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
A historic season for Army and quarterback Bryson Daily. It’s the best season Army has had in almost 80 years. It was only a game or two short of being as good as some of those national championships in the 1940’s. Daily’s 32 rushing touchdowns is third behind only Barry Sanders 42 in 1988 and Montee Ball’s in 2011. Army also had their highest win total in program history with 12. Jeff Monken is a fantastic coach and has Army football in its best era in decades. They are a strength to the AAC, and that will be important as the Group of Five conferences compete for playoff berths.
11. Georgia (11-3) (Last Week #5) (#2 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #2 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Georgia’s defeat against Notre Dame reminded me of how rare and awesome Cardale Jones and Ohio State were 10 years ago. It’s tough to win with even a talented backup quarterback. Georgia proved that. I ranked Georgia here because they’ve fallen the hardest in the 2024 season. With no more Nick Saban to trouble them, the college football world was theirs for the taking. They did well in beating Texas and staying atop the SEC, but they had a rough bowl season like the rest of their conference outside of Texas. The good news is they still are at the top of the SEC and Kirby Smart and Gunner Stockton could seize the conference the way Nick Saban did before them. Prayers for Coach Kirby Smart who tragically lost his father this week and the city of New Orleans which was attacked by terrorism.
12. Tennessee (10-3) (Last Week #13) (#7 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #7 and #6 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
With all the controversy about who made the field of 12 and who didn’t, Tennessee isn’t one to question if they should’ve been left out. The Vols deserved their playoff berth. As a program they’re trending in the right direction with Josh Heupel, and Nico Iamaleava will continue to improve every game. They’ll miss Dylan Sampson, but Tennessee should be a playoff team again in 2025.
13. Iowa State (11-3) (Last Week #18) (#18 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #18 and #19 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Iowa State and BYU showed in their bowl games that the Big 12 needs to be respected and that they had a strong case for an at-large berth over some other teams. It’s clear that the Big 12 was better than the ACC in 2024. Also like BYU, Iowa State’s bowl victory and 11-win season will help them strengthen their program’s foundations and sustain success in the future.
14. SMU (11-3) (Last Week #11) (#10 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #12 and # in the AP and Coaches Polls)
I had actually thought SMU would pull the upset against PSU, but they got crushed. Kevin Jennings throwing touchdown passes to Penn State put the Mustangs in a hole that they could just never climb out of. Still, their solid regular season earned them this spot and they have had a great first year in a Power 4 Conference. While I believe BYU deserved a playoff berth more than SMU, SMU earned theirs and will show they deserved it as their program continues to rise the longer they are in the ACC.
15. Memphis (11-2) (Last Week #15) (#25 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #25 and #23 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Memphis beat a West Virginia team that is better than their record. I think that will be shown next year when their prodigal son, Rich Rodriguez, resumes coaching their program. Memphis had a season to be proud of and in which they showcased why they are at the top of the short list of any further expansion by the ACC or the Big 12. Whoever gets them will not only boost their own conference but weaken those competing with them.
16. Ohio (11-3) (Last Week #16) (Unranked in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked # in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The Bobcats looked like they didn’t miss a step with their head coach jumping ship (to Charlotte of all places) after they won a MAC Championship. They defeated a solid, 9-5 Jacksonville State in the Cure Bowl and have closed their season incredibly strong. This type of year can lay a strong foundation for the future to where sooner than later the Bobcats will be competing for the Group of Five playoff berth.
17. Illinois (10-3) (Last Week #23) (#20 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #21 and #25 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Brett Bielema has quietly turned Illinois into what he had at Wisconsin. A tough blue collar team that will compete with the top of the Big Ten and with whoever they face in bowl games. Cutting down a 9-3 SEC team this season was a good strike against the national media’s advocacy for that conference. While their fellow Big Ten teams enjoyed that, they won’t enjoy playing the Illini in 2025. They were the best Big Ten team in the west of the conference outside of Oregon this year and will only continue to compete and upset the big teams.
18. UNLV (11-3) (Last Week #17) (#24 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #24 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
UNLV is another team in a great spot as a program. With Dan Mullen, a proven good coach, coming in to take over for Barry Odom UNLV will stay near the top of the Mountain West. That will keep them in playoff contention like they were this year and in a good position as conference foundations, particularly in the west, continue to be shaky.
19. Navy (10-3) (Unranked Last Week) (Unranked in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Unranked in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Navy had some stumbles but finished strong by beating their rival Army before taking down a program like Oklahoma to get to 10 wins. With star quarterback and Ohio’s own Blake Horvath returning in 2025, Navy will be set up for a season like their rival Army had with Bryson Daily.
20. Syracuse (10-3) (Unranked Last Week) (#21 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #22 and #25 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Kyle McCord made the correct move in going to Syracuse. He set the conference record for passing yards with 4,779 yards. He also had 34 touchdowns, 10 more than he had at Ohio State in 2023. Syracuse would be a very interesting team in 2025 if they could get him back for another year. Regardless, they’ve had a great first season with Fran Brown as their head coach and are poised to be very competitive in a wide open ACC in 2025.
21. Missouri (10-3) (Unranked Last Week) (#19 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #23 and #20 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
While not quite as good as 11-2 and the Cotton Bowl win from 2023, Missouri had another solid season with double digit wins and a bowl victory over a Big Ten team. Eli Drinkwitz is building Missouri into a team that will compete with anyone and can’t be taken lightly.
22. Sam Houston State (10-3) (Last Week #19)(Unranked in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Unranked in the AP and Coaches Polls)
In only their second season in the FBS and after going 3-9 in their first the Bearkats get to double-digit wins. After only two years in the FBS Sam Houston is already competing at the top of their conference.
23. Clemson (10-4) (Last Week #20) (#16 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #13 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The good news for 2024 Clemson is that they won the ACC Championship and earned a College Football Playoff berth. The bad news is they went 0-3 against the SEC. They lost to rivals Georgia and South Carolina and were bounced from the playoff by Texas. It’s a different era than 2016 and 2018 and while the Tigers are still atop of the ACC they got to find ways to beat teams outside of their conference again.
24. Ole Miss (10-3) (Unranked Last Week) (#14 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #16 and #15 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Congrats, Ole Miss. You beat up the seventh best ACC team who’s quarterback from the whole season was gone. I know you can only play who is on your schedule, but Lane Kiffin’s antics went from funny and advocating for his team to incessant whining really quickly. They want all the credit for beating 11-3 Georgia but none of the smoke for losing to 9-4 LSU, 8-5 Florida, and 4-8 Kentucky. Simply don’t lose 4-8 Kentucky at home and you’re in the playoff and probably getting crushed on the road in the north in December. To Kiffin’s credit and though he gripes about it too, they’ve also made good moves in the transfer portal and will be in contention for the playoff again in 2025.
25. Miami (10-3) (Last Week #12) (#13 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #15 and #16 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The Hurricanes finished as a mess. They lost three of their last four and could’ve had their first 11-win season in 21 years if their quarterback hadn’t quit on them at halftime of the Pop-Tarts Bowl. I had been on the Cam Ward bandwagon all year but that was a dumb decision. Either sit out the whole game to avoid injury or play the whole game for your team. Playing just long enough to get some records for yourself- well, that ain’t it. That hurts your team. If you’d been all in or all out, the Hurricanes would have been ready to ride with one quarterback for a whole game against a good Iowa State team.
Actual First Round
5. Texas (12-2) defeated 12. Clemson (10-4)
4:00 PM Saturday, December 21st, 2024 – Austin, Texas
6. Penn State (12-2) defeated 11. SMU (11-3)
Noon Saturday, December 21st, 2024 – State College, Pennsylvania
7. Notre Dame (12-1) defeated 10. Indiana (11-2)
8:00 PM Friday, December 20th, 2024 – South Bend, Indiana
8. Ohio State (11-2) defeated 9. Tennessee (10-3)
8:00 PM Saturday, December 21st, 2024 – Columbus, Ohio
Actual Quarterfinals
8. Ohio State (12-2) defeated 1. Oregon (13-1) in the Rose Bowl
Wednesday, January 1st, 2025 – Pasadena, California
7. Notre Dame (13-1) defeated 2. Georgia (11-3) in the Sugar Bowl
Thursday, January 2nd, 2025 – New Orleans, Louisiana
5. Texas (13-2) defeated 4. Arizona State (11-3) vs. in the Peach Bowl
Wednesday, January 1st, 2025 – Atlanta, Georgia
6. Penn State (12-2) defeated 3 Boise State (12-2) in the Fiesta Bowl
Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – Phoenix, Arizona
Actual Semifinals
Texas (13-2) vs. 8 Ohio State (12-2) in the Cotton Bowl
Friday, January 10th, 2025 – Dallas, Texas
7. Notre Dame (13-1) vs. 6. Penn State (13-2) in the Orange Bowl
Thursday, January 9th, 2025 – Miami, Florida
Projected Championship
Monday, January 20th, 2025 – Atlanta, Georgia
7. Notre Dame (14-1) over 5. Texas (14-2)
Projected 2024 National Champions are the 15-1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Thanks for checking in on my Power Rankings and my college football playoff projections! If you like my work at all please follow me on X and give me feedback! Thank you!
My Criteria for the Power Rankings
Winning Matters: If you’re undefeated, you’ll not be ranked below a team with one or more loss. If you have a better record but play an easier schedule, you’ll still be ahead because you will have completed the objective of winning more.
Expectations And Exceptions: If you’re Indiana and Georgia and having similar seasons, Indiana is going to be ranked higher because being in playoff contention is the expectation for Georgia and it’s above and beyond exception for Indiana.
Indisputable Evidence: Rarely have teams with the same record jump one another but if done, make clear why.
