Power Rankings: Conference Champs Playoff Field

Well, here we are. The field is set for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff! These are the last Power Rankings before a playoff game is played!

1. Oregon (13-0) (Last Week #1) (#1 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #1 in the AP and Coaches Polls)

The only undefeated team in college football this season has earned the undisputed #1 ranking. The Ducks will play in the coveted Rose Bowl, but their opponent will be a seasoned one. They’ll either get the Buckeyes that they beat by one at home in October or a resurgent Tennessee. I think Oregon would prefer the devil they know in Ohio State. Either way, they’ll be the favorite to win the entire playoff and rightfully so.

2. Boise State (12-1) (Last Week #3) (#9 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #8 in the AP and Coaches Polls)

Ashton Jeanty may have locked up the Heisman when he led the Broncos to lock up the Mountain West Championship and a playoff berth. You can’t go wrong between him and Travis Hunter, but Jeanty took his team to a conference title and the playoff and Hunter did not. I kind of wish Boise State wasn’t the #4 seed just to see a team have to play them on the Smurf Turf in mid-December. We’ll have to settle for seeing them play the winner of Penn State and SMU in the Fiesta Bowl. The Broncos have made history in that bowl game a few times and will look to do the same again for themselves and for Ashton Jeanty.

3. Notre Dame (11-1) (Last Week #2) (#5 College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #3 in the AP and Coaches Polls)

The only reason I had the Broncos jump the Irish is that being the first Group of Five team in the playoff and potentially having a Heisman trophy winner is a bigger season for Boise State than Notre Dame’s bouncing back from losing to a MAC team to get to the playoff. Now the Irish get to host the Indiana Bowl. The Old Guard Irish get to take on the upstart, New Blood Hoosiers. It will be a great matchup between underrated quarterbacks in Kurtis Rourke and Riley Leonard. It will be an even greater matchup between newer head coaches in Marcus Freeman and Curt Cignetti.

4. Indiana (11-1) (Last Week #7) (#8 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #9 in the AP and Coaches Polls)

I almost jumped the Hoosiers over the Irish because 11-1 at Indiana is rarer than it is for Notre Dame. I’m still not sure I shouldn’t have. The good news though is they will settle it on the field on the 20^th, a Friday night in South Bend, Indiana. The Indiana Bowl is set to be a promising game. The winner will then go to the Sugar Bowl to take on the dynastic Georgia Bulldogs.

5. Army (11-1) (Last Week #8) (#22 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #19 and #18 in the AP and Coaches Polls)

The only way Army’s season could be better is if Boise State weren’t in the top 12. Army should be getting more love nationally. I can’t help but wonder if this will move the Army-Navy game because how much harder would the committee’s job be if Army were 12-1 and had beaten 8-3 Navy before beating Tulane? Bryson Daily hopefully will get to New York for his historic season and continue to force people to see how historic and great this Army team is. Army has already accepted an invitation to the Independence Bowl against Marshall where they will play for at least their 12^th if not 13^th win of their historic season.

6. Arizona State (11-2) (Last Week #12) (#12 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #10 in the AP and Coaches Polls)

The Sun Devils historic turnaround is why they’re so high in the Power Rankings. Last year they were 3-9 and were under some sanctions from the NCAA. This year they’re Big 12 Champions, a #4 seed in the playoff with a first-round bye and headed to the Peach Bowl. A turnaround for the ages!

7. Georgia (11-2) (Last Week #9) (#2 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #2 in the AP and Coaches Polls)

The only reason Georgia isn’t higher is because this is what was expected of the Dawgs. Winning an SEC Championship and securing a #2 playoff seed is nothing new to them. It’s almost routine. Georgia’s biggest question now is how hurt Carson Beck is and will he be healthy for the Sugar Bowl against the winner of the Indiana Bowl. Georgia should be at the #12 seed if Beck is out for the rest of the season per the Jordan Travis Rule that the SEC wailed about last year.

8. Tennessee (10-2) (Last Week #10) (#7 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #7 and #6 in the AP and Coaches Polls)

Tennessee essentially had a bye this weekend. Since they weren’t playing in the SEC Championship for a bye before Christmas, it works out well for them. Dylan Sampson’s Vols have to go on the road in the first round but it’s to Ohio State. Of the four teams hosting in the first round going to Ohio State is at the moment the easiest draw. Losses tend to beat the Buckeyes twice in the Ryan Day Era and this game could easily be like the last for Ohio State. Tennessee is very similar to that team up north. They are a run-first and have a very stout defense that starts with their line. Unfortunately for Ohio State, Tennessee has a much better passing game to complement it. Tennessee will follow the Ann Arbor blueprint against the Buckeyes.

9. Texas (11-2) (Last Week #4) (#3 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #4 in the AP and Coaches Polls)

You’re just still not sure about how good Texas is. The committee gave them love for playing Georgia close in round two but I’m not convinced and even a first-round win over Clemson won’t fully answer questions about Texas. The good news for the Longhorns is the Tigers play very similarly to Georgia and Texas can show that they can win a slugfest with that kind of team with a win over Clemson. They do that and they can go back to Atlanta and try and get a win in that town against a red-hot Arizona State.

10. Penn State (11-2) (Last Week #6) (#4 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #5 in the AP and Coaches Polls)

Penn State is like Texas, you just don’t know if they’re ready to shed the narratives about them. And the ones about them are stronger than the ones about Texas. Penn State plays hard in the big games but they just haven’t really one since Saquon Barkley left. The Rose Bowl win over Utah doesn’t qualify as one of those big games like PSU would hope. If they don’t believe me they can ask Ohio State. Penn State gets a very underrated SMU in their house but are once again deprived of their epic night game atmosphere. They get the Mustangs at noon and will be fighting SMU for a trip to the Fiesta Bowl to play Boise State.

11. Clemson (10-3) (Unranked Last Week) (#16 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #13 in the AP and Coaches Polls)

Clemson got to win the ACC and get into the playoff and maybe just as importantly to Tigers fans, keep Alabama out of the playoff with their win over SMU. They have to go on the road now in the first round but are fortunate that it’s to Austin, Texas. There the weather shouldn’t play a huge role in the game. Dabo Swinney is good at getting his team ready to play when he convinces them they’re disrespected and he’ll play that up since they’re the #12 seed.

12. SMU (11-2) (Last Week #5) (#10 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #12 and # in the AP and Coaches Polls)

I still believe in SMU. They get a favorable game against a Penn State program and coach that notoriously plays well in big games but just as notoriously doesn’t close them out. The biggest challenges for SMU will be the weather and the home crowd. If it’s wet and freezing that helps Penn State. If dry that favors the high-powered SMU offense. Oregon showed how to score on Penn State and I think SMU has a good chance to follow in the Ducks footsteps with Kevin Jennings and Brashard Smith.

13. Ohio State (10-2) (Unranked Last Week) (#6 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #6 and #7 in the AP and Coaches Polls)

Ohio State made their way back into the Power Rankings after their worst loss in program history for one reason. They have a chance (no matter how small) to win the national championship and that’s something that only 12 teams have at the moment, and that justifies putting them back up here. The Buckeyes get a home game against a southern team in December. Sadly, the Buckeyes will play a team very similar to the one they just lost two on that same home field. If Ryan Day decides to continue smashing his head against a brick wall by trying to beat Tennessee’s strengths it be a similar result to Ohio State’s last outing.

14. BYU (10-2) (Last Week #13) (#17 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #17 and #18 in the AP and Coaches Polls)

I know the powers at be have Miami and Alabama as their first teams out but for me it’s BYU. BYU’s win over SMU is why I have them above those two. They played a tougher schedule and won better games than Miami and didn’t lose as many bad games as Alabama. BYU will play conference foe Colorado in the Alamo Bowl as both teams seek to close 2024 with a win and starting 2025 off on the right track.

15. Miami (10-2) (Last Week #14) (#13 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #15 and #16 in the AP and Coaches Polls)

It was a crushing end to a good season for Miami. The loss to Syracuse that eliminated them from the playoffs and the ACC Championship Game has been devastating. Now the Hurricanes will play the Cyclones of Iowa State in the Pop-Tarts Bowl to try and get an 11^th win and use 2024 as a building block season for their program. They’ll likely do it without star quarterback Cam Ward who is expected to opt out of the game.

16. Memphis (10-2) (Last Week #15) (#25 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #25 and #23 in the AP and Coaches Polls)

The Tigers had their bowl matchup set early. They will play West Virginia in the Frisco Bowl in Frisco, Texas on December 19^th. West Virginia will be led by interim head coach Chad Scott in his first game. That should give Memphis and Ryan Silverfield (who will be coaching his 63^rd game at Memphis) an advantage. The Tigers will be playing to finish strong at 11-2 and to be strong going into 2025.

17. Marshall (10-3) (Last Week #25) (Unranked in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Unranked # in the AP and Coaches Polls)

Marshall won the Sun Belt Championship and their coach immediately bolted for…another Sun Belt team? That went 1-11?! That lost at home to Marshall this season 37-3?!! This is a head-scratcher of a coaching move and now the Thundering Herd will have to try and take down AAC Champion Army with an interim head coach. College football certainly is a rollercoaster ride

18. Ohio (10-3) (Unranked Last Week) (Unranked in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked # in the AP and Coaches Polls)

The Bobcats won their first MAC Championship since 1968 with a 38-3 thumping of Miami (Ohio). They lost their head coach to Charlotte of all places, but still have a good bowl game ahead of them. They’ll take on Conference USA Champion Jacksonville State on December 20^th in the Cure Bowl in Orlando, Florida. Circle this one as a game you don’t want to miss!

19. UNLV (10-3) (Last Week #16) (#24 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #24 in the AP and Coaches Polls)

Despite falling to Boise State and losing out of the Mountain West Championship and the playoff, UNLV has a chance to finish strong. 11-3 with a bowl win would be a big step in the right direction. They’ll have a shot to do that against Cal in the LA Bowl.

20. Iowa State (10-3) (Last Week #11) (#18 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #18 and #19 in the AP and Coaches Polls)

I was tempted to keep ISU ranked higher than this because they were playing for a playoff spot. But that actually makes them getting blown out that much worse. I know Arizona State is a hot team right now and were trying to boost their playoff ranking but Iowa State just got obliterated. They still have a chance for 11 wins though when they travel to Orlando to take on Miami in the Pop-Tarts Bowl.

21. Louisiana (10-3) (Last Week #17) (Unranked in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Unranked in the AP and Coaches Polls)

The Ragin Cajuns fell at home in a battle for the Sunbelt but still have a good opportunity to close their season with a win against a Power Four foe. They’ll take on 8-4 TCU in the New Mexico Bowl as they try to get 11 wins.

22. Illinois (9-3) (Last Week #18) (#20 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #21 and #25 in the AP and Coaches Polls)

The fighting Bret Bielema’s will take on South Carolina in the Citrus Bowl. It will be a battle of 9-3 teams as they fight for a 10^th win. It will be another SEC-Big Ten matchup to watch for. Expect lots of defense and special teams in this one.

23. Alabama (9-3) (Last Week #19) (#11 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #11 in the AP and Coaches Polls)

The Tide hate being left out but getting to play the cheaters up north in a bowl game after last year isn’t a bad consolation prize. Bama will probably do a better job getting revenge against the Ann Arbor Astros than Ohio State did this season.

24. Ole Miss (9-3) (Last Week #20) (#14 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #16 and #15 in the AP and Coaches Polls)

The bright side for Ole Miss is that they get a chance to leave the Sunshine State with a win. They get Duke, another 9-3 team looking for double-digit wins in the Gator Bowl.

25. South Carolina (9-3) (Last Week #21) (#14 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #14 in the AP and Coaches Polls)

Shane Beamer’s squad will take on the Illini in Orlando at the Citrus Bowl. South Carolina has a chance to have their most wins since Steve Spurrier was in Columbia.

My Playoff Field and First Four Out

Oregon 13-0
Boise State 12-1
Georgia 11-2
Arizona State 11-2
Notre Dame 11-1
Ohio State 10-2
Penn State 11-2
Texas 11-2
Indiana 11-1
Tennessee 10-2
BYU 10-2
Clemson 10-3
SMU 11-2
Army 11-1
Miami 10-2
Alabama 9-3

Actual Field of 12

Oregon 13-0
Georgia 11-2
Boise State 12-1
Arizona State 11-2
Texas 11-2
Penn State 11-2
Notre Dame 11-1
Ohio State 10-2
Tennessee 10-2
Indiana 11-1
SMU 11-2
Clemson 10-3

Actual First Round

5. Texas (11-2) vs. 12. Clemson (10-3)

4:00 PM Saturday, December 21st, 2024 – Austin, Texas

6. Penn State (11-2) vs. 11. SMU (11-2)

Noon Saturday, December 21st, 2024 – State College, Pennsylvania

7. Notre Dame (11-1) vs. 10. Indiana (11-1)

8:00 PM Friday, December 20^th, 2024 – South Bend, Indiana

8. Ohio State (10-2) vs. 9. Tennessee (10-2)

8:00 PM Saturday, December 21^st, 2024 – Columbus, Ohio

Projected Quarterfinals

1. Oregon (13-0) vs. 9. Tennessee (11-2) in the Rose Bowl

Wednesday, January 1^st, 2025 – Pasadena, California

2. Georgia (11-2) vs. 7. Notre Dame (12-1) in the Sugar Bowl

Wednesday, January 1st, 2025 – New Orleans, Louisiana

3. Boise State (12-1) vs. 11. SMU (12-2) in the Peach Bowl

Wednesday, January 1^st, 2025 – Atlanta, Georgia

4. Arizona State (11-2) vs. 5. Texas (12-2) in the Fiesta Bowl

Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – Phoenix, Arizona

Projected Semifinals

1. Oregon (14-0) vs. 5. Texas (13-2) in the Cotton Bowl

Friday, January 10^th, 2025 – Dallas, Texas

2. Georgia (12-2) vs. 3. Boise State (13-1) in the Orange Bowl

Thursday, January 9^th, 2025 – Miami, Florida

Projected Championship

Monday, January 20^th, 2025 – Atlanta, Georgia

1. Oregon (15-0) over 2. Georgia (13-2)

Projected 2024 National Champions are the 16-0 Oregon Ducks

Thanks for checking in on my Power Rankings and my college football playoff projections! If you like my work at all please follow me on X and give me feedback! Thank you!

My Criteria for the Power Rankings

Winning Matters: If you’re undefeated, you’ll not be ranked below a team with one or more loss. If you have a better record but play an easier schedule, you’ll still be ahead because you will have completed the objective of winning more.

Expectations And Exceptions: If you’re Indiana and Georgia and having similar seasons, Indiana is going to be ranked higher because being in playoff contention is the expectation for Georgia and it’s above and beyond exception for Indiana.

Indisputable Evidence: Rarely have teams with the same record jump one another but if done, make clear why.