Oct 2, 2023; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) and guard Damian Lillard (0) pose for a picture during media day in Milwaukee. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
Pick swaps have become commonplace in the NBA. With blockbuster trades happening multiple times every season, pick swaps are often included as a sweetener for many trades. However, what is the actual value of the swaps? While they look great when listing the return for a trade, there is a question of whether it actually ever returns any real value.
Pick Swaps In The NBA
A pick swap is exactly what it sounds like. The team getting the rights to swap first-round picks can decide before the draft to do so. For the team trading for them, the hope is that the team stinks down the road and they get some high picks. For example, the recent Damian Lillard trade has the Bucks send two pick swaps in 2028 and 2030 to the Blazers. What the Blazers are hoping is that Giannis Antetokounmpo goes somewhere else and the aging roster can’t keep up a winning pace.
For the team trading away these pick swaps, the goal is to be better than the team you are trading with. To use the aforementioned example, the Bucks are hoping that Giannis stays and keeps the team in contention for a title for years to come. With how quickly things change in today’s NBA, teams often bank on being able to retool on the fly. The key here is regardless of what happens, the team doesn’t lose the first-round pick.
The Ideal Situation: Jayson Tatum
The Jayson Tatum situation is why pick swaps are so prevalent in the NBA. In one of the greatest trade heists of the century, the Celtics sent Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce to the Nets in exchange for a pick swap. The Celtics struck gold. The Nets won the lottery and the number one overall pick but thanks to the swap, the Celtics jumped to the first overall pick while Brooklyn got the 27th overall pick. After wheeling and dealing some more, the Celtics ended up with the third overall pick and Tatum. This is the ideal scenario for a team getting the swap. The other team bottoms out and you get an unexpected top pick. The issue is that this is not the norm, it is the exception.
Other Pick Swaps In NBA History
Here is the list of the most significant use of pick swaps in recent history.
-In the 2016 draft, Denver swapped with New York moving from 9th to 7th. They took Jamaal Murray.
-The 2017 draft didn’t just see the Celtics swap but the 76ers went from 5th to 3rd overall with the Kings. They packaged this pick to move to the number one overall pick.
-In 2013, Cleveland went from 30th to 19th after a pick swap with the Lakers.
-In 2007, the Bulls moved from 23rd to 9th due to a swap with the Knicks. They took Joakim Noah with that pick.
-Finally, in 2015, Atlanta swapped with Brooklyn from 29th to 15th.
There have been some other insignificant ones like moving from 24th to 22nd but the above ones are the most significant. However, in most cases, the move doesn’t vault the team into a top pick. It slightly improves their draft position which is something considering the alternative.
Unused Swaps
Most pick swaps are never used in the NBA. Out of 31 times through the 2022 draft that teams could exercise a swap, it has only happened on 12 occasions. This means that 61% of the time, the pick swap doesn’t happen and is essentially worthless. According to research, we can calculate that the average pick swap yields about as much value as the average no. 36 pick in the draft. For those of you keeping track at home, that is a high second-round pick. So if the value truly isn’t there, why do so many teams still do them?
Worth The Risk
For teams trading them away, it is easy to see why they do pick swaps. There is a very decent chance that nothing happens and if it does, the swap is not anything that is franchise crippling. For the teams receiving them, it is worth the risk. The worst-case scenario is everybody keeps their pick. The best-case scenario is the Jayson Tatum situation where a franchise hits the jackpot and now has a top player in the league on an already contending team.
What we as fans need to do is more accurately understand the value of pick swaps in the NBA. The Bucks trading for Lillard looks different if we see the trade as Jrue Holiday, Grayson Allen, and a 2029 1st round pick. While the two pick swaps are there, chances are they will amount to nothing. While it seems like these teams are giving up a boatload when the trade is announced, it actually ends up being much less. Pick swaps will keep happening but the value of them isn’t as high as we might think.
