Phil's Friday Forecast Wins and Losses (Photo by the Author)
It was a great Week 8 and though Ohio State and Georgia have the week off, but there are still plenty of awesome matchups in Week 9. From the MAC to the Mountain West, from the American to the ACC, from the Big 12 to the Big Ten, and to the SEC there top games across the nation.
Utah State wins over New Mexico
New Mexico will be hosting the team that their 2024 head coach, Bronco Mendenhall, left them for in 2025. Mendenhall took seven staffers and seven players with him to USU. The psychological and revenge factor will work for New Mexico at home, but Utah State has the edge with Bryson Barnes at quarterback.
Toledo wins over Washington State
Washington State has nearly beaten two top 25 teams on the road in Ole Miss and Virginia. They’ve got to be thrilled to be back home. The bad news is Toledo has a top 10 defense in both scoring and yards allowed. They’re also a top 30 team in both scoring and total yards on offense. Toledo’s an under-the-radar team and will use that to their advantage.
Miami (OH) wins over WMU
After a 0-3 start, the RedHawks have won four straight. Western Michigan has done the same thing. Miami and WMU are both 4-3 and 3-0 in the MAC. The advantage for Miami is that they are at home, are red hot, and are on a 10-game MAC regular-season win streak.
#10 Cincinnati wins over Baylor
The Bearcats are very tough at home. Both UC and Baylor have fantastic offenses, but Cincinnati has a much more serviceable defense than Baylor. The Bearcats are in the top 30 in scoring defense, and the Bears are in the bottom 20. Bearcats take this one at home with a better defense.
Tennessee wins over Kentucky
The Vols have to beat UK. At 5-2, another loss would almost certainly end their playoff hopes. Kentucky is coming off a heartbreaking game against Texas that they should have won. Being at home again, with nothing to lose, and against a bitter rival makes them dangerous. It will be strength vs. strength with the Tennessee offense vs. the Kentucky defense. Even in their losses to Georgia and Alabama, Tennessee moved the football. That should be their advantage against UK.
Utah wins over Colorado
This is an underrated matchup. The Buffaloes just had a bye week, and before that, their biggest win of the season, upsetting Iowa State. Utah is returning home after their heartbreaking loss to BYU. If this game were in Boulder I might go with Colorado, but with being in Salt Lake City, and add that to Devon Dampier’s ability to beat in multiple ways and Utah should win.
#2 Indiana wins over UCLA
If this were in the Rose Bowl, I’d be more worried about the possibility of a UCLA upset. I know the Bruins have been on fire since their coaching change, but Indiana is just a different monster these days. Fernando Mendoza, Curt Cignetti, and Indiana are just too strong at home.
#17 Oklahoma wins over #20 Ole Miss
It’s a tough couple of weeks for Ole Miss. They had to play at Georgia and the very next week at Oklahoma. This is nearly a 50/50 game for the Rebels and the Sooners. Strangely enough, Oklahoma has never beaten Ole Miss (0-2). Oklahoma has the edge this time as John Mateer continues to heal, and as they are playing in Norman.
#11 USF wins over #25 Memphis
This game will show whether Memphis got exposed against UAB or just had a hiccup. USF is the real deal. The Tigers are in some elite company, though. Only Ohio State (21-2), Indiana (18-2), BYU (18-2), and Oregon (19-2) have had better records in the past two seasons than Memphis (17-3). Memphis is also at home at the Liberty Bowl. Still, USF has just been that strong this year, and they should win in a close one.
Northwestern wins over Nebraska
This matchup has been an interesting one since it became a regular Big Ten game in 2011. Nebraska holds a one-game lead in that time at 7-6. With both teams at 5-2, this is the kind of game Nebraska has struggled with in recent years. That continues, and Northwestern becomes bowl eligible.
SMU wins over Wake Forest
SMU has won 20 straight regular-season conference games dating back to their last two seasons in the American Conference. They seem to be hitting their stride at the right time and are fresh off a win over Clemson. They’ll pick up their second win in the Carolinas in as many weeks behind the play of quarterback Kevin Jennings.
#18 Missouri wins over #16 Vanderbilt
I think Mizzou’s running game will be the decisive difference in this game. Vanderbilt is at home and is coming off a big win. Diego Pavia will keep Vanderbilt scoring, and it may come down to who has the ball last. However, I like Ahmad Hardy to have a big game for the Tigers and get them the win.
Illinois wins over Washington
The Huskies are very tough at home, but they got exposed in Ann Arbor last week. Illinois has had some big wins this season, over USC and on the road at Duke. Luke Altmyer and the Illini will come away from Seattle with the win.
Minnesota wins over Iowa
One of the oldest and most often-played rivalries in college football, Minnesota and Iowa will be a battle again. This will be the 119th time they have played. Iowa is 9-1 in the last 10 games. Iowa is the home team, but Minnesota has a more dynamic offense and should get the win and take home the Floyd of Rosedale Trophy.
#24 San Diego State wins over Fresno State
This should be a Mountain West, California shootout. SDSU should come out as the winner as Fresno State just lost to a team two weeks ago, that has since fired their coach in Colorado State. The Aztecs’ defense has been solid most of the season, and their offense is trending in the right direction.
Texas wins over Mississippi State
After barely escaping Kentucky with a win, Texas stays on the road, this time in Stark Vegas to play Mississippi State. Say what you will about Texas’s struggling offense, their defense has been first-rate all season. The Bulldogs had a hot start to their season, but have cooled rapidly with three straight losses. Texas should overpower MSU to get to 6-2.
#21 Miami wins over Stanford
The Hurricanes are coming off a painful loss to Louisville and now have the task of hosting Stanford. The Cardinal may have some life after upsetting Florida State, but Stanford hasn’t won back-to-back games over FBS opponents since October of 2022. That doesn’t change in Miami.
#5 Texas A&M wins over LSU
LSU is wounded, has their back to the wall, and are back at home to play rival Texas A&M. The home team has won eight straight in this rivalry, but Marcel Reed and the Aggies will stop that streak.
michigan wins over Michigan State
As much as I hate to say it, the Spartans don’t have a prayer in this one. Right now, they’re UCLA but going in the opposite direction. 3-0, to 0-4, and soon to 0-5. They do get to battle for Paul Bunyan in their home stadium, but that’s about all they have going for them against a michigan team that has out-talented their way to their five wins. That gap is still too wide for MSU
Arizona State wins over Houston
ASU looked like they were expected to look all season in their win over Texas Tech last week. The Sun Devils are extra tough at home, and Houston has to visit Tempe. Willie Fritz is getting Houston to where they want to be, but it won’t be quite enough just yet to beat the defending Big 12 Champions.
#2 BYU wins over Iowa State
Another game that will be 50/50, Iowa State is coming off of two heart-crushing losses and a bye week. Their Big 12 and postseason lives are on the line in every game from here on out. BYU, however, is 18-2 in their last 20 games. Kalani Sitake had his team’s attention on ISU before Utah had even left LaVell Edwards Stadium last week. ISU struggles to defend the run (ranked 64th in the nation), and LJ Martin is 5th in the nation with 774 rushing yards. BYU should find a way to win this one.
2025 Record: 86-58 (Overall: 188-101)
All Rankings are from the College Football Power Rankings.
