Graphic by the College Football Playoff
Down to only three unbeaten teams! That’s why Oregon, Indiana, and Army are at the top of my rankings. My rankings are based on teams’ successes. Undefeated matters. Having a better overall record matters. Head-to-head when they share the same record matters. I’m not claiming Army would beat Texas because I have Army ranked #3 and Texas #7. I’m saying Army going 9-0 is a bigger deal for them and their program than 9-1 is for Texas at this point.
The case could be made that Indiana and Army are more successful than Oregon right now because of how massive the turnarounds are for them. But being undefeated and the undisputed top-ranked team tops even the best Cinderella stories. It’s also why my rankings are often different from my 12-team field and playoff projections. In the end, these rankings all work themselves out in the end when the games are played.
1. Oregon (11-0) (Last Week #1) (#1 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #1 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The Ducks survived a scare on the road in a hostile environment at Camp Randall against Wisconsin. It’s the calling card of a great team to win games like this and avoid upsets. Many undefeated teams in this situation would suffer a loss so credit Oregon for remaining undefeated. Oregon also clinched their first appearance in the Big Ten Championship game in their first season in the conference.
2. Indiana (10-0) (Last Week #3) (#5 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #5 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The Hoosiers have a bye this week. They’ll have had two weeks to prepare for the Buckeyes in Columbus next week. People need to understand just how huge this season has been for Indiana. They could lose their next three games, end the year 10-3 and it is still maybe the best season in the history of their program. Right now, they’re poised to at worst be 11-1 and have a shot at a playoff berth at the end of the regular season. Any team would be happy with that and the Hoosiers have a real shot at 12-0 and driving up to Indy for a Big Ten Championship. They book a trip to Indy if they beat Ohio State next week.
3. Army (9-0) (Last Week #4) (#19 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #18 and #17 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Army had the week off before their biggest game of the year when they play Notre Dame next week. They won’t have far to go as the matchup with the Irish is in Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. A win here and they jump to the top of the G5 playoff berth standings. Even a loss here doesn’t eliminate them. After all, Boise’s loss to Oregon didn’t eliminate them. Army is still in the middle of the fight for the playoffs.
4. Notre Dame (9-1) (Last Week #5) (#6 College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #6 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
How they were upset by NIU will be one of the great mysteries of 2024 let alone of this football season. It could prove to be the best thing that happened to them as the Irish are now 9-1. Next they play Army at Yankee Stadium where a victory over the undefeated Black Knights would further improve their at-large playoff berth. Giving Army their first loss and then defeating rival USC on the road would put Notre Dame at 11-1 and be nearly impossible to keep them out of the field of 12.
5. Boise State (9-1) (Last Week #6) (#12 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #12 and #13 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
It was tight early with San Jose State but then the leader for the Heisman took over for the Broncos of Boise State. Ashton Jeanty had 32 carries for 159 yards and three touchdowns. Boise also secured their spot in the Mountain West Championship game. The Broncos are three wins away from a playoff berth and a Heisman Trophy winner, all in the same season.
6. Ohio State (9-1) (Last Week #8) (#2 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #2 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The Buckeyes took care of business against Northwestern, 31-7. After an early lead for NU Ohio State scored 31 unanswered points. The Bucks now have their third top-five matchup of the season when they host 10-0 Indiana next week. Ohio State is playing at a high level right now but these aren’t yesterday’s Hoosiers. They are for real and if not taken seriously, they’ll knock the Buckeyes out of the Big Ten title chase, and put their playoff hopes on life support.
7. Texas (9-1) (Last Week #10) (#3 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #3 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Texas gutted out a win on the road against their old rival Arkansas. This was no gimme of a game for Texas as Arkansas gave Tennessee their only loss of the year on the same field in Fayetteville. They have their home finale against a good Kentucky defense before they close the season by renewing a game that should never taken a hiatus, the Lone Star Showdown in College Station. Texas and Texas A&M are the only SEC teams that still control their own destinies and only need to win and not get help from other teams.
8. BYU (9-1) (Last Week #2) (#14 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #14 and #15 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
BYU laid an egg against Kansas. This was not the BYU we Cougar fans had seen all of 2024. It looked more like the BYU of 2023 that shot itself in the foot, never got out of their own way, froze up and got too conservative at critical times, and finished 5-7. The good news though is every possible goal is still obtainable. They can still win double-digit games, make the Big 12 title game, win the Big 12, make the playoffs and go on from there. They control their own destiny and be themselves and win and get in. And it begins with Arizona State next week.
9. SMU (9-1) (Last Week #7) (#13 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #13 and #12 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The Pony Express had a fight against the Golden Eagles of Boston College, but they held on to win a nailbiter at home by the score of 38-28. This one was much closer than the 10-point final difference would indicate. With only Virginia and Cal left on the schedule there’s no reason Kevin Jennings and the Mustangs don’t get to 11-1 and an ACC Championship berth in their first season in the conference.
10. Penn State (9-1) (Last Week #11) (#4 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #4 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Penn State kept their playoff hopes alive by clobbering Purdue 49-10. Some have questioned whether Penn State deserves a spot even if they finish 11-1 but don’t win the Big Ten. They absolutely do. Said critics wouldn’t say that about an 11-1 SEC team even if all of their wins were over FCS competition. Penn State still has to get there though with games at a scrappy Minnesota team and home finale against Mason-Dixon rival Maryland.
11. Miami (9-1) (Last Week #12) (#8 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #11 and #10 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The Hurricanes had the week off before their home finale against Wake Forest and then a trip to Syracuse, New York.
12. Alabama (8-2) (Last Week #15) (#7 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #7 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Bama beat FCS Mercer 52-7 in their edition of the SEC’s chickenhawk Saturday. With the elimination of divisions and an easy final three games of the season, this could finally bite Alabama. Their final four games of the season are hapless Oklahoma, reeling Auburn, FCS Mercer, and a spiraling LSU. It probably won’t be, but it should be held against the Tide if they are vying for an at-large playoff berth.
13. Texas A&M (8-2) (Last Week #16) (#15 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #15 and #14 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
They and their instate rival control their own destinies in the SEC and could have a rematch a week after the end of the regular season in the SEC Championship. After years without the Lone Star Showdown could we get it in back-to-back weeks?
14. Ole Miss (8-2) (Last Week #17) (#9 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #9 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The Rebels had a bye week this week. Next week they travel to Florida before hosting the Egg Bowl. No reason that Ole Miss shouldn’t finish 10-2.
15. Colorado (8-2) (Last Week #19) (#16 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #16 and #18 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The Buffs have to be wanting that Nebraska loss from September back. Without that, they’d have a shot at an at-large playoff berth even without a Big 12 Championship. As it stands, Colorado controls their own destiny. To get into the Big 12 Championship Game, win it, and make the college football playoffs. Pretty great for Coach Sanders in year two. And just as the icing on the cake, they’re going to have at least one star be a Heisman finalist.
16. Arizona State (8-2) (Last Week #20) (#21 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #21 and #22 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The Sun Devils are overachieving like most of the leaders in the Big 12. They’ll need help to get into the Big 12 title game but can help themselves in a big way with their game against BYU this coming week. Like the Cougars, they’re exceeding expectations and are a program trending in the right direction.
17. Georgia (8-2) (Last Week #22) (#10 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #8 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Georgia is a coin flip. Are you going to get the team that overpowered Texas, Tennessee, and Clemson or the team that laid an egg against Ole Miss and Alabama? With their SEC schedule over, all that’s left for them to do is get through chickenhawk Saturday against UMass and not get trapped by rival Georgia Tech. But with the insane log jam at the top of the SEC, Georgia will have to watch and hope for the best more than they can do anything on the field at this juncture.
18. Tennessee (8-2) (Last Week #9) (#11 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #10 and #11 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Another SEC team that has to wait and see. The Vols can help their cause by beating Vanderbilt in the season finale but their win on chickenhawk Saturday over UTEP will do them no good. If the goofy ties at the top of the SEC persist, the conference may finally do away with chickenhawk Saturday and go to nine conference games like the Big Ten and Big 12.
19. Clemson (8-2) (Last Week #23) (#17 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #17 and #16 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
With their victory over Pitt, Clemson is 7-1 in the ACC and will finish no worse than tied for second place regardless of (9-1, 6-0) SMU and (9-1, 5-1) Miami do in their remaining games. The fighting Dabos only have The Citadel and South Carolina left on their schedule and neither can really hurt Clemson’s postseason hopes. The Tigers schedule probably isn’t good enough to get them an at-large bid so they need to make the ACC Championship and win if they want to get into the playoffs.
20. Tulane (9-2) (Last Week #24) (#20 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #20 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Tulane blew Navy out of the water and locked up a trip to the AAC Championship. The win also secured their opponent in that game will be Army. I say it every week Tulane is ranked but a Power 4 Conference needs to pick them up. The only place they wouldn’t really fit would be the Big Ten. The Big 12 and ACC would be made stronger by adding them and a return to the SEC would only further lock down the South and its talent for them. The Green Wave still have an outside shot of being the G5 playoff representative if they beat Memphis and Army, but would need Boise State to stumble.
21. Memphis (9-2) (Last Week #25) (Unranked in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Unranked and #24 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Another program that would be an asset to Power 4 Conferences. The Tigers have a high-powered offense and while they won’t play for the AAC title they can knock conference rival Tulane out of the playoff picture by giving their first conference loss on Thanksgiving night.
22. Iowa State (8-2) (Unranked Last Week) (#22 in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (#22 and #21 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
ISU is with Arizona State about being on the outside looking in for the Big 12 Championship. They’re looking uphill to BYU and Colorado. They need help from Arizona State, Houston, Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Arizona to get Kenny Dillingham and Cam Skattebo to the Big 12 Championship Game.
23. Washington State (8-2) (Last Week #13) (Unranked in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Ranked #25 and unranked in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Washington State took a tough tumble in a classic shootout with Bronco Mendenhall’s New Mexico. Their already slim playoff hopes were ended in Albuquerque. All they have left to play for is to shoot for an 11-2 season, something they haven’t had since Mike Leach and Gardner Minshew.
24. James Madison (8-2) (Unranked Last Week) (Unranked in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Unranked in the AP and Coaches Polls)
A playoff longshot that would need absolute chaos to get the Group of Five bid, James Madison is helping Indiana in making former head coach Curt Cignetti look good. With a season finale game against Marshall, they control their own destiny to win their conference and their division in the last conference to still use divisions.
25. Sam Houston State (8-2) (Unranked Last Week) (Unranked in the College Football Playoff Rankings) (Unranked in the AP and Coaches Polls)
SHSU has had another one of those amazing turn arounds from last year. 8-2 after 3-9 and with a chance to be Conference USA Champions a big improvement for K.C. Keeler’s program.
26. Louisiana (8-2)
27. UNLV (7-2)
28. Liberty (7-2)
29. Kansas State (7-3)
30. Illinois (7-3)
Game of the Week
College Football Playoff and Record Projections
- Oregon 13-0
- Texas 12-1
- BYU 12-1
- SMU 12-1
- Ohio State 11-2
- Notre Dame 11-1
- Georgia 10-2
- Tennessee 10-2
- Boise State 12-1
- Penn State 11-1
- Indiana 11-1
- Army 12-1
First Round
5. Ohio State (11-2) vs. 12. Army (12-1)
Saturday, December 21st, 2024 – Columbus, Ohio
6. Notre Dame (11-1) vs. 11. Indiana (11-1)
Saturday, December 21st, 2024 – South Bend, Indiana
7. Georgia (10-2) vs. 10. Penn State (11-1)
Saturday, December 21st, 2024 – Athens, Georgia
8. Tennessee (10-2) vs. 9. Boise State (12-1)
Friday, December 20th, 2024 – Knoxville, Tennessee
Quarterfinals
1. Oregon (13-0) vs. 9. Boise State (13-1) in the Rose Bowl
Wednesday, January 1st, 2025 – Pasadena, California
2. Texas (12-1) vs. 7. Georgia (11-2) in the Sugar Bowl
Wednesday, January 1st, 2025 – New Orleans, Louisiana
3. BYU (12-1) vs. 6. Notre Dame (12-1) in the Fiesta Bowl
Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – Phoenix, Arizona
4. SMU (12-1) vs. 5. Ohio State (12-2) in the Peach Bowl
Wednesday, January 1st, 2025 – Atlanta, Georgia
Semifinals
1. Oregon (14-0) vs. 5. Ohio State (13-2) in the Cotton Bowl
Friday, January 10th, 2025 – Dallas, Texas
2. Texas (13-1) vs. 6. Notre Dame (13-1) in the Orange Bowl
Thursday, January 9th, 2025 – Miami, Florida
Championship
Monday, January 20th, 2025 – Atlanta, Georgia
1. Oregon (15-0) over 2. Texas (14-1)
The 2024 National Champions are the 16-0 Oregon Ducks
Thanks for checking in on my top 25 rankings and my college football playoff projections! If you like my work at all please follow me on X and give me feedback! Thank you!
