Nico Hoerner (Creative Commons: Minda Haas Kuhlmann)
What seemed to be a spasm of life for the Chicago Cubs recently was quickly followed by a gurgling sound that seems suspiciously like a last gasp. The Cubs 2-1 loss to the Guardians on Tuesday highlighted the biggest problem on the team. A lack of offense.
The Cubs’ offense has been a bit better recently, but just not good enough. If you look up the middle of the Cubs team, there just isn’t enough production. The Cubs are 20th in MLB in slugging percentage with a mark of .386. The Cubs’ quartet of shortstop, second base, center field and catcher are all below that mark. Let’s break that down a little bit more.
The middle infield
Nico Hoerner is having a down year. Going into last night’s game he was slugging .347 vs. a career rate of .375. That’s down a bit. In 2022 and 2023 he had a WAR of 4.2 and 5.1 respectively. This year he’s sitting at 1.8. That’s a drop off. Plus, the Cubs best hitting prospect in the minors is infielder, Matt Shaw.
Shaw had been playing third base but would seem to be a more natural fit at second. This seems like a position where the Cubs could add some pop. Shaw had seemed to be ticketed for action at third, but the Cubs acquisition of Issac Paredes would seem to have squelched that.
Nico’s salary is $11.5 million for 2025 and $12 million for 2026. Shaw could be both better and cheaper.
Dansby Swanson is experiencing somewhat of a revival at shortstop, both with the stick and glove. Swanson is currently hitting .231 with a slugging percentage of .356 to go along with nine home runs. His career slug is .411 and for the three seasons leading up to 2024 he hit 27-25-22 homers. His WAR in 2022 was 5.5. In 2023 it was 4.8. As of now, Swanson has a WAR of 1.6. I don’t think it’s too difficult to see a problem here.
Of course, with Swanson’s contact, he’s not going anywhere.
Center field is Pete Crow-Armstrong’s to lose
PCA makes more almost great catches than anyone I’ve ever seen. Maybe at some point he will close the deal on those plays. At the plate, he has got his average over .200. He’s currently sitting at .209. Plus, there are hints of extra base power. Plus, he has stolen 23 bases in 23 attempts. Those peripheral stats help him put up a WAR of 1.2 despite missing a chunk of games while playing in the minors.
And also working in PCA’s favor is he is cheap.
Yan Gomes production is seriously missed
Catching has been a particular weak spot for the Cubs in 2024. Yan Gomes had a fantastic season in 2023 but went off the cliff a la Thelma and Louise in 2024, leading to his being cut. Miguel Amaya does have his batting average up to.218 but is slugging only .310 with just four home runs. Last season he hit five homers in right at 100 fewer at bats. He also slugged .359 in 2023 as opposed to .310 in 2024.
Help is needed in this area.
Looking for why the Cubs can’t get over the hump? Look up the middle. That and the decline of Cody Bellinger. But we will address that at another time.
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