Graphic by The College Football Playoff
Week 14 CFB Top 25 Rankings
Michigan is still out thanks to their cheating. That they possibly didn’t even need to could end up being the ultimate irony in all of this. Georgia is looking to repeat and looks like the only complete team out here in the rankings. Washington struggled to win the last Apple Cup more than they should have. Ryan Day can’t win the big game at Ohio State. Florida State is just not the same without Jordan Travis. Alabama may have used all their luck for the next decade to fend off Auburn. Texas and Oregon are peaking at the right times.
It is becoming clearer with each game who’s having the best season and that’s the main factor in my rankings. It’s why I rate Group of Five teams as high as their Power Five counterparts. A 12 or 13-win season can do as much if not more for a G5 program than a P5 program. It’s going to be a wild finish and subsequent final selection to the four-team playoffs and to see who the national champion is and which teams had the greatest year in 2023.
1. Georgia (12-0) (Last Week #1. CFP Ranking #1) (Ranked #1 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Georgia got a reasonable test from in-state rival Georgia Tech but the Bulldogs just keep marching on. Their winning streak is now at 29 games, an SEC record. To get to thirty they’ll have to go through revenge-minded Nick Saban and Alabama. With everything else going on across college football, like 2021, Georgia may be in the playoff even with a loss in the SEC Championship.
2. Washington (12-0) (Last Week #4. CFP Ranking #3) (Ranked #3 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
It wasn’t pretty but rivalry wins don’t have to be. The Huskies won the final Apple Cup for the foreseeable future and will take Oregon for the second time, this time in Las Vegas for the Pac-12 Championship and a playoff spot. Like Georgia, it’s feasible they could get in even with a loss but they’d need more help than their fellow Dawgs. The Huskies have to treat this virtual quarterfinal with even more urgency than the Bulldogs do theirs.
3. Florida State (12-0) (Last Week #3. CFP Ranking #4) (Ranked #4 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
This team isn’t the same without Jordan Travis. That is true, but they are still a talented football team. They have no margin for error though. A loss to Louisville and they’re out of the playoffs. A win and they should be in. Even without Travis, 13-0 should get you a playoff spot if you’re Florida State. They need a conference championship game like Ohio State had in 2014 to give the committee no reason to keep them out. Jeff Brohm and Louisville are a tough out though for a team playing their backup quarterback.
4. Liberty (12-0) (Last Week #5. CFP Ranking #24) (Ranked #20 and #22 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
I don’t know if it will shake out that way but if Liberty goes 13-0 and Tulane goes 12-1, Liberty should jump Tulane. That’s not a shot at Tulane and how great they have been the past two seasons. It’s giving undefeated the nod over one loss and giving Jamey Chadwell, Kaidon Salter and the Flames credit. I truly wish this were 2024 and this team could get into the 12-team playoff. They would surprise a lot of people.
5. Oregon (11-1) (Last Week #6. CFP Ranking #5) (Ranked #5 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Oregon made it official for Oregon-Washington II in 2023 with a win over rival Oregon State. They paid back the Beavers with interest in the last version of their rivalry game (that shouldn’t be allowed to die) before going to the Big Ten. Bo Nix kept his Heisman hopes alive and the Ducks look like they can play with anyone in the country. They will be ready for that rematch with their other rival to the north in a virtual playoff quarterfinal.
6. Texas (11-1) (Last Week #7. CFP Ranking #7) (Ranked #7 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The Longhorns aren’t happy with BYU. They wanted that rematch with Oklahoma and they wanted it badly. Now they can’t avenge their one loss to their biggest rival. They can’t be too upset though, with a conference championship and playoffs left to play for. With Alabama and Georgia playing each other and Oregon and Washington doing the same, Texas should control their own destiny and with a win be in.
7. Alabama (11-1) (Last Week #8. CFP Ranking #8) (Ranked #8 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
You can’t take away anything from Alabama but that was more Auburn finding a way to lose than Bama finding a way to win. You have a team at 4th and goal from the 30 and you let them score? That’s as rare and will be as infamous as the Kick Six. As former Auburn star Willie Anderson said, Nick Saban is a witch with magical powers. It’d be almost impossible to keep Alabama out of the playoffs with a win at this point.
8. Tulane (11-1) (Last Week #10. CFP Ranking #22) (Ranked #17 and #18 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Behind forcing FIVE turnovers the Green Wave washed away the Roadrunners. They’ll now likely play SMU for the American championship and possibly back-to-back New Year’s Six games. They’re like Liberty in that I’d love to see them in a 12-team playoff and they would surprise some people. Some Power Five conference needs to get Tulane before one of their competitors does. I’m looking at you ACC and Big 12.
9. Toledo (11-1) (Last Week #11. Unranked in the CFP) (Ranked #23 and Unranked in the AP in Coaches Polls)
Toledo is on an 11-game winning streak and will play for their 12th win next week against Miami (Ohio) in the MAC Championship. With an upset of Tulane or Liberty and the Rockets may be the Group of Five conference champion who gets to a New Year’s Six Bowl. If not, they’re still having a generational season (though they may kick themselves hard for their season-opening loss of only two points to Illinois).
10. James Madison (11-1) (Last Week #12. Unranked in the CFP) (Ranked #24 and #25 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The good news is the Dukes are going bowling! Since there weren’t enough teams with .500 or better records for all of the bowl games this year, James Madison and Jacksonville State get to go to bowls. The only downside is James Madison doesn’t get to play in their conference championship game, despite a better record than division foe Appalachian State and a win over the other division champion Troy.
11. Ohio State (11-1) (Last Week #2. CFP Ranking #6) (Ranked #6 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
They’re my lowest-ranked one-loss team because they are the same team they’ve been for three seasons now. That’s a team that is unable to win big games, and a team that only gets to big games because of NFL talent like C.J. Stroud and Marvin Harrison Jr. People in Ann Arbor want a lifetime contract for Ohio State’s current coaching staff while Buckeye fans are learning that Lou Holtz was right.
Yet it wouldn’t surprise me if Ohio State fell butt first into the playoffs like they did last year. If Louisville beats Florida State (which seems very likely), Oregon and Alabama get their second losses (likely considering Georgia and Washington look like the two best in the nation), and if Oklahoma State can upset Texas which is possible.
12. Penn State (10-2) (Last Week #13. CFP Ranking #10) (Ranked #10 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
I’ve maintained that Penn State is the best two-loss team in the nation. They’re going to go to back-to-back New Year’s Six Bowls and could have consecutive 11-2 seasons. I loved their rivalry game with Michigan State being played at Ford Field in Detroit and on Black Friday, I hope that becomes a trend. If James Franklin can get their offense on track they’ll be a force to be reckoned with in the 2024 Big Ten.
13. Missouri (10-2) (Last Week #14. CFP Ranking #9) (Ranked #9 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Missouri is having a terrific season. Ironically their best wins came against Kansas State and Memphis outside of the SEC. The powers at be may have to choose between Missouri and Ole Miss for a New Year’s Six Bowl. Cody Schrader should win the Burlsworth Trophy, be up for the Doak Walker Award, and be all-SEC.
14. Iowa (10-2) (Last Week #15. CFP Ranking #16) (Ranked #18 and #17 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
In the battle across the Missouri River and for the Heroes Trophy, Iowa Iowaed. They played elite defense, lousy offense, and won on special teams. They’re 10-2 playing and winning one of the worst divisions in college football and will play for the Big Ten Championship.
15. Ole Miss (10-2) (Last Week #16. CFP Ranking #11) (Ranked #11 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Lane Kiffin has led Ole Miss to their only two seasons that they won 10 games in the regular season in program history. That’s what they’ve done in two of their past three seasons. They won the Egg Bowl over rival Mississippi State, which has been my favorite Thanksgiving football game ever since they moved it to the holiday. A New Year’s Six Bowl is in order for the 10-2 Rebels.
16. Oklahoma (10-2) (Last Week #17. CFP Ranking #12) (Ranked #12 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
From 6-7 to 10-2 is a pretty good turnaround and improvement in year two of Brent Venables tenure as Oklahoma’s head coach. I think if you had told Oklahoma fans they’d go 10-2 with a win in the Red River Shootout I think they would have happily accepted it. This turnaround will be the legacy of Dillon Gabriel as an Oklahoma Sooner. And from a BYU fan, I’m sorry the Cougars got your hopes up.
17. Louisville (10-2) (Last Week #9. CFP Ranking #14) (Ranked #15 and #14 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
All losses suck. This one sucked extra because it eliminated the Cardinals from playoff contention. It sucked even more because it came at the hands of a rival. (Ohio State feels your pain, Louisville). The good news is that an ACC Championship and a New Year’s Six Bowl are still winnable against Florida State next week. All of this in year one of Jeff Brohm’s return home.
18. Troy (10-2) (Last Week #18. Unranked in the CFP) (Unraked in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Troy is favored to win back-to-back Sun Belt Championships and will be looking for back-to-back 12-win seasons. They are out to be the class of the Sun Belt but need to beat Appalachian State for their conference crown.
19. SMU (10-2) (Last Week #19. Unranked in the CFP) (Ranked #25 and #24 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The Mustangs want their last year in a Group of Five Conference to go out with a bang. They’re red-hot and poised to give Tulane a tough game as a parting gift on their way from the AAC to the ACC.
20. Miami (OH) (10-2) (Last Week #21. Unranked in the CFP) (Unranked in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Miami is having their best season of the Chuck Martin Era. He’s been a solid coach for many years there and it’s good to see him and them have a year like this. They’ll be looking for revenge in Detroit against Toledo on Saturday.
21. New Mexico State (10-3) (Last Week #22. Unranked in the CFP) (Unranked in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Jerry Kill can coach. He got perennial doormat New Mexico State 10 wins, an upset of an SEC team on the road in November, and a shot at a conference championship in their first year in Conference USA. Win or lose against Liberty, the Aggies are on the rise.
22. Notre Dame (9-3) (Last Week #23. CFP Ranking #17) (Ranked #16 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
Notre Dame is trending in the right direction under second-year head coach Marcus Freeman. They’ll do no worse than 9-4 in two straight years and have a shot at 10 wins this season. They’re headed in the right direction with elite defensive play and an offense that seems to be steadily improving. They’ll be expected to be playoff contenders in 2024.
23. Arizona (9-3) (Last Week #24. CFP Ranking #15) (Ranked #14 and #15 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
I don’t know if any team in college football is hotter than the Wildcats right now. They will be a force in the Big 12 next year and like Notre Dame are heading in the right direction for their program. Jedd Fisch has done a great job turning them around.
24. Oklahoma State (9-3) (Unranked Last Week. CFP Ranking #18) (Ranked #19 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
The Cowboys are a rollercoaster team. They have been in the season with a loss to South Alabama but beating Oklahoma and in games like their up-and-down double overtime win over BYU this past weekend. They could beat Texas on Saturday or lose by 30 and neither would surprise me. With some consistency, they’d be poised to dominate the new Big 12 in 2024.
25. NC State (9-3) (Unranked Last Week. CFP Ranking #19) (Ranked #21 and #20 in the AP and Coaches Polls)
NC State is like Arizona in turning up the heat after a rocky start. They’ve won five straight including wins over Clemson, Miami, and rival North Carolina. The Virginia transfer Brennan Armstrong is ready for a big bowl game as they strive for double-digit wins.
Game of the Week
Utah State vs. New Mexico
Rose Bowl (Semi-Final) – Washington vs. Texas
Sugar Bowl (Semi-Final) – Georgia vs. Ohio State
Cotton Bowl – Louisville vs. Missouri
Orange Bowl – Penn State vs. Alabama
Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma vs. Oregon
Peach Bowl – Ole Miss vs. Liberty
National Championship Georgia over Texas
I’m realistic and know Ohio State would need Georgia, Washington, *Michigan, Louisville, and Oklahoma State to all win to get into the playoff but I refuse to put the corrupt temple that is the Ann Arbor Astros in my rankings or New Year’s Six Bowl projections. What will likely happen is all the teams above except Oklahoma State will win and that would leave Georgia at #1, *Michigan at #2, Washington at #3, and Texas at #4. With that happening, replace Missouri with Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl and trade Alabama for Louisville in the Orange Bowl and the rest will be the same.
The rankings are if the season ended today. But the bowl projections are how I think the future will shake out the rest of the season. In my rankings, wins, and losses count. I will try my best to be consistent about this and never rank a team with two losses above a team with one loss, unless head-to-head results say otherwise. These rankings are how well a team is playing and how well they have played. Things like being undefeated count and will always count.
