Oct 7, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) runs the ball during the second overtime against the Arizona Wildcats at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
The number one overall pick is highly coveted in the NFL as it is in all sports. The ability to pick any player from a class gives a team ultimate control over their destiny. This year, it is especially valuable. USC’s Caleb Williams is one of the best prospects in a decade and is set to change the course of a franchise for years to come. Now that we have entered week 6, we have a pretty good idea of who is going to be in the mix. Who has the best chance of getting the number 1 overall pick?
Number 1 Overall Pick In The NFL
In recent history, the number 1 overall pick has led to a lot of franchises finding a good or even great quarterback. Andrew Luck, Trevor Lawrence, and even Jared Goff are recent examples of quarterbacks taken first overall who raised the floor of the franchise. In both of the Luck and Lawrence drafts, we knew that these players were going to be top picks and give the team their quarterback of the future. 2024 is going to be similar. Williams is slated to be a can’t-miss prospect and could get any team out of the league’s basement.
By my count, I have six teams that will actually be in the mix for the top pick. While there are a lot of 2-3 teams, I think those teams are incentivized enough to win that they will not be in the mix. Those teams may end up in the top ten but it is highly unlikely they will jump the six teams for the top pick.
The Favorites: Bears With Numbers On Their Side
I have the Chicago Bears as the clear favorite simply based on probability. They own the Carolina Panthers first-round pick as well as their own. The Panthers are currently in the top slot and the Bears are currently third. Getting two shots at the number 1 overall pick is rare in the NFL. It’s pretty clear how they get the pick. The Panthers continue to struggle offensively and with injuries. Alternatively, the Bears continue their inconsistent play and cannot string together wins. Even though they are the favorite simply based on the two cracks, there is a great case for the opposite to happen.
The Bears have talent. Justin Fields and DJ Moore are coming off of an epic Thursday night stat line. The running game continues to improve and the defense has even shown flashes as well. It is easy to see the Bears ending the season 6-11 or 7-10. The Panthers are not incentivized to lose. Unlike some other teams in their position, they will continue to try and win games up until the very end. A week 18 victory could be the difference for the Bears at the end of the season.
The Favorites: A Hot Mess In Denver
The Denver Broncos also seem to be in the driver’s seat for the top pick. We’ve already seen them in week 6 and it was not good. The offense looks asleep and the defense has been historically bad. They already have traded Randy Gregory and released Frank Clark. The message is clear. They want an opportunity at one of these top quarterbacks and even if they don’t get the first overall pick, should be in line to draft one of the other great prospects.
The Favorites: The Surprise Team In The North
My surprise team is the Minnesota Vikings. Kirk Cousins is in the last year of his deal and all indications are he won’t be back. The team has started out 1-4 with little hope of turning things around thanks to injuries. Justin Jefferson is on IR and given the team’s record, will not rush to bring him back. The defensive issues still haven’t been fixed and overall the team seems to be heading in the wrong direction. However, getting Williams and pairing him with Jefferson and Jordan Addison would be a great way to rebound in the next season and sustain success for years to come. I wouldn’t be surprised if this team sees the opportunity and goes for the top pick.
The Outside Shot
I have two teams in this category but I think both of the teams will have too many wins at the end of the season. The Arizona Cardinals have surprised some teams. While they only have one win, they haven’t looked inept on the field. It would not shock me if the team picked up a couple of wins here and there throughout the season as teams like the Dallas Cowboys sleep on the game against them. Many NFL analysts believed that the Cardinals were the surefire pick for the number 1 overall pick but that seems much less likely now.
The Patriots are also an interesting case. Everything has gone wrong on offense with Mac Jones and the defense just lost their two best players. Their schedule is very tough and there is a great chance that they finish the year with only a handful of wins. I don’t put them in the favorites because of Bill Belichick. He is chasing Don Shula‘s win record. Punting on a season at his age doesn’t seem like something he would do. He already has suggested that Malik Cunningham might see action which indicates he is still trying to win. Still, if Jones stays under center, they may sneak in.
The Enigma That Is The New York Giants
The Giants have had a nightmare season. After paying Daniel Jones $160 million in the offseason, he has looked terrible on the field. Some of this is due to injuries to pass-catchers and on the offensive line but still, it hasn’t been good. This is a team that I could see going either way. They paid Jones meaning they are tied to him for a certain amount of time. While it would be great to bring in Williams, Jones would be an expensive backup. This team seems pot-committed to Jones for at least a couple of years. It still seems like the Giants want to win and prove that paying Jones was the right move. However, if the play doesn’t improve and injuries keep happening, they could find themselves in the top pick.
Other Teams Worth Mentioning
The Raiders, Commanders, Titans, and Jets are also interesting teams for this discussion. I can make the case that each of these teams could go on a long losing streak. However, I don’t see them competing for the number 1 overall pick in the NFL draft next season. They would have to go on an epic losing streak to jump the aforementioned six teams which means those teams would also have to win some games. All of these teams are also still actively trying to win so I find it more likely that they will all finish at worst in the 6-11 or 8-9 range.
A Fun Battle To Watch
Whenever there is a prospect like this, the race to the bottom becomes very fun to watch. There are many teams in the NFL that seem to be vying for the number 1 overall pick. It is one thing to put a game plan in place to win. It is another to put one in place to lose. As the season wears on, I expect some odd decisions to come out of certain teams as they jockey for position at the bottom.
