Aaron Rodgers Injury: Can He Make a Comeback?

In the wake of the devastating news of the Aaron Rodgers injury, one thing is clear. He is not retiring. Not that we as fans expected him to do so. Rodgers seems like a guy who wants to go out on his own terms. However, an Achilles injury is a nasty and long recovery and one that is extremely difficult to come back from. Can he make an NFL comeback? If he does, what will his level of play be?

Aaron Rodgers Injury: Success Stories

I want to start with the positive. There are success stories in the NFL of players coming back from this injury and playing well. The best case is Denver Broncos wide receiver Demaryius Thomas. He had a torn Achilles in 2011 but followed it up in 2012 by catching 94 passes for 1,434 yards and 10 touchdowns. This started a string of five straight 1,000-yard seasons. Terrell Suggs was 29 when he tore his Achilles but came back to have a great career. He had 54.5 sacks after the injury and showed that veteran players could come back from this devastating injury.

The most recent example is Rams running back Cam Akers who returned to the field after just six months. While his production slipped a little, the fact that he was on the field was a miracle. This is meant to be the best-case scenario and not likely the norm for a player with this injury. Still, these players show us that it is possible to come back. However, studies are not favorable towards it.

Aaron Rodgers Injury: The First Study

There are two studies that I have poured over in the past 24 hours that give some solid data on what really happens after an Achilles injury. The first study was done by Selene Parekh, MD, MBA, and Jay Shah, MBA. They looked at 78 players who ruptured their Achilles during the 2010-2015 seasons. Here are the results of the study.

“Of those that suffered an Achilles tendon rupture, 26% did not ever return to play in the NFL. Players who did return to play in the NFL took an average of 9 months to recover after the date of injury. Across all positions, there was a net decrease in power ratings by 22% and a net decrease in approximate value by 23% over 3 years following player return after Achilles tendon rupture.”

Basically, 1 in 4 players never returned and performance dipped significantly over the next three years. If there is good news for the Aaron Rodgers injury it is that he doesn’t need to go beyond three years. The Jets and Rodgers would likely be content with one last Super Bowl run with him under center. The data seems to indicate that in the short term, players can come back.

The Second Study

The second study is out of the University of Pennsylvania Orthopaedic Journal. They looked at 31 Achilles injuries between 1997 and 2002 with the average age of the players being 29 years old. This study was similar to the previous one in that they saw a sharp decrease after three years. The statistics were also similar to the previous study.

“31% of NFL players who sustain an Achilles tendon rupture will not return to play in the NFL. On average, players who return to play may see an over 50% reduction in their power ratings following such an injury.“

This study saw an even greater dip in production than the last one but overall the studies come to similar conclusions. About a third of players will never return to the NFL and they will see a significant drop off in production.

Achilles Injuries In The NBA And Basketball

The Aaron Rodgers injury has been common in basketball as of late. Kevin Durant is the most famous example of an athlete who tore his Achilles and came back to play at a high level. Similar to Akers (that feels like a weird comparison), Durant is the exception, not the rule. For most NBA and WNBA players, a significant drop off in production is seen. Even if the production doesn’t drop off, we can see a difference. Kobe Bryant didn’t look the same after his Achilles injury. While he still put up many points, his first step burst was gone and his fadeaway was no longer as deadly. Overall, while the NBA has seen players make a comeback, it is often with a huge drop in production similar to how the studies have shown.

A Positive Study

It isn’t all doom and gloom. Some caveats of this next study. It is done on younger NCAA basketball athletes. It isn’t a perfect comp but does give us some insight into playing after the injury. After the injury, male athletes played more minutes, scored more points, had more assists, and made more three-pointers. The stats that went down were the defensive stats like blocks. I found this a little funny as there is a saying that having the ball heals all injuries. Players often give more effort on the offensive side of the ball and this study seems to confirm that.

Other Factors In The Aaron Rodgers Injury

There are a couple of factors that are tough to predict with the Aaron Rodgers injury. The first is the severity. There are different grades of Achilles injuries. There is a difference between a tear and a rupture. The recovery will all depend on how severe Rodgers’ injury actually is. If it isn’t as bad, he could recover easily by next season and still play at a high level. If it is a huge tear or rupture, it could be a long road ahead.

The second factor is age. Rodgers is about to turn 40. In all of these studies and examples, the players are significantly younger than Rodgers. Most people in Rodgers’ shoes would call it quits. But he isn’t like most people. He seems determined to make a comeback but it makes projecting what he will be impossible. The data can give us some idea but there are so many unknowns about the situation.

Hoping For A Comeback

I hope he returns. I hope he can lead the Jets to some semblance of success. The good news? Rodgers doesn’t have to be an MVP to have success with this team. The defense is young and full of studs. The offense has playmakers all over the field. If Rodgers can come in and manage the game and not turn the ball over, the team should see plenty of success.