What Does NFL History Say About A 0-3 Start?

There are nine teams that have the potential for a 0-3 start in the 2023 NFL season. Every year, we hear about the 0-2 start but discussion stops after that. Mostly, this is due to the fact that when teams start 0-3, they likely were not coming into the season hoping for a playoff berth. 2023 is different. Many of the current 0-2 teams came into the season with playoff hopes, and in some cases, Super Bowl aspirations. What does NFL history say about a 0-3 start?

A 0-3 Start In the NFL: By The Numbers

Since 1990, 158 teams have started 0-3. Only four have reached the playoffs. It is worth noting that two out of the four won their division as well. Basically you 1 out of 50 chance of reaching the postseason. While this may seem bleak this stat is flawed. Many teams that start out 0-3 weren’t trying to make the playoffs anyway. For example, this year, the Cardinals have started 0-2 and could be 0-3. Do they really care? Not at all! With the depth of the quarterback class and the likelihood of two high picks, they want to be losing. As I said before, this year is different. Out of the nine teams that are currently 0-2, I count five of them that came into the season with playoff hopes. Furthermore, there are two other teams at 0-2 that do not own their own first-round pick.

The Best Tanking Situations

The Cardinals have to love how this season is starting from a tanking perspective. They nabbed Houston’s first-round pick in the 2024 draft and will have their own. They will likely get two great cornerstones to rebuild a franchise around. Similarly, the Bears own Carolina’s first-round pick. While it hurts that Justin Fields does not look like the long-term plan, they also have the ability to reload quickly thanks to premium draft capital.

The Trickier Situations

The Panthers and Texans are in tricky situations due to the aforementioned owing of picks. Normally, each of these teams being 0-3 wouldn’t be an issue as it would assure them a premium pick. That is not the case here. It isn’t a complete disaster as high second-round and third-round picks do provide value but it is hard to justify losing when it directly helps another NFL team. I believe that both of these teams were hoping that the pick would be more in the teens rather than the top five but they made their bed and now it’s time to lie in it.

The Fringe Playoff Hopefuls

The Patriots and the Broncos came into the 2023 season as fringe playoff teams. Under Bill Belichick and new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien, the team was ready for a bounce-back season behind a solid defense. After all, the team won eight games last year with Matt Patricia running the offense so this year had to be better! They have played close games against two of the best teams in the league but have come up short each time. The good news is they have the Zach Wilson-led Jets this week, a team that Belichick has owned.

The Broncos brought in Sean Payton to help fix the team. The Russell Wilson trade has looked like a disaster and the team swung for the fences. Unlike the Patriots, the Broncos losses have been bad. They lost week 1 to the Raiders and then gave up a massive lead to the Commanders in week 2. It is harder to see a path forward for this team especially when they have to play the Chiefs and Chargers twice. A season that started with some promise is quickly turning into a repeat of 2022.

The Playoff Hopefuls

There are three NFL teams in this group that could have a 0-3 start. The Vikings won the division last season and while they were primed for regression, many thought they could still take the division. The Chargers, fresh off of giving Justin Herbert a huge contract, were a sleeper Super Bowl pick. Cincinnati is the biggest surprise as many had them as their Super Bowl winner. For the Bengals, the reason is easy. Joe Burrow is not healthy and it is affecting his play. The losses on defense of Von Bell and Jessie Bates are also starting to be felt. For the Vikings and the Chargers, the offenses have looked great but the defenses have been abysmal. In the biggest moments, the teams falter.

This makes the week 3 matchup between the Vikings and Chargers one of the most interesting of week 3. In terms of the numbers, the loser of this game is in all likelihood out of the playoffs. To go through an offseason thinking that the team had playoff potential and then in three weeks to not have a win is brutal. In the case of the Chargers, a loss might mean the firing of Brandon Staley. For the Vikings, a loss might mean the firesale of key players and the shift to rebuilding.

Cincinnati Is The Trickiest To Read

It is so hard to put a finger on how much to panic around the Bengals. Week 1 was a slop fest in the rain and week 2 was a close loss to the Ravens. The real question is the Joe Burrow injury. If Burrow isn’t healthy, the offense doesn’t have as much juice. If he is, that offense is one of the best in the league. They are one of the most recent teams to come back from a 0-2 start and make the playoffs but starting 0-3 would be a huge challenge in the AFC. The good news is while the Rams have been playing better than expected, the Bengals have more talent.

Statistics On 1-2 Vs. 0-3 Start

A 1-2 start isn’t ideal but in the expanded playoff format, much easier to deal with. Since 2020, when the NFL playoffs expanded to 14 teams, there have been 10 teams that started 1-2 and made the playoffs. That’s nearly 25% of the playoff field during that span. Last season alone, three teams made the playoffs after a 1-2 start. It is much easier to recover from and many teams do. The challenge of starting out slow is that it leaves less margin for error later in the season. This can be good for some teams. It also can become impossible to play with that type of intensity week after week.

Can these NFL teams avoid the 0-3 start? Especially for the playoff hopefuls, a loss in week 3 could bring a premature end to their Super Bowl hopes.