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The New York Jets enter 2023 with more hope than the last 20 years combined. Once a perennial laughingstock of the league, the Jets had a solid season last year behind a dominant defense. The problem was the offense. Despite Garrett Wilson winning Offensive Rookie of the Year, the offense stalled under Zach Wilson and Mike White. They fixed that problem when they landed four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers in a trade. Everyone is eager to pencil them in but I am less bullish on the team.
New York Jets Aaron Rodgers
Let me be clear. I think Rodgers is going to have a monster season. I’ve seen what a ticked-off Rodgers can do. Much has been made about his poor performance last season and even I have written about the last five years of Rodgers’ production being a concern. However, I think he has found a new motivation and will be ready to prove that he still has plenty left in the tank. My worries come elsewhere with the Jets. Here are three reasons why I think they could struggle.
The Offensive Line Is Questionable
Currently, the Jets’ depth chart has the offensive line as this moving from left to right. Duane Brown, Laken Tomlinson, Connor McGovern, Alijah Vera-Tucker, and Mekhi Becton. On the bench, rookie Joe Tippmann seems like a solid backup. Outside of these players, it is pretty bleak. Former Packer Billy Turner hasn’t played in a year and the rest of the players don’t inspire confidence. If the first unit can stay healthy all season, maybe this works but that seems like a stretch.
Brown is 37 years old and is in the twilight of his career. Becton has been plagued with knee injuries and has barely seen the field in his time in the NFL. The inexperience together scares me. Rodgers loves to let plays develop. The quick throw game is not his strong suit. He loves to hold the ball, buy some time, and devastate a defense with a throw. If the offensive line cannot protect, Rodgers could get sacked a lot.
Volatility Of NFL Defenses
It is hard to be consistently dominant from year to year on defense in the NFL. While there are some consistencies coaches can teach, there is some randomness. How many backup quarterbacks did you face last year? How many times did you catch a team with an injured left tackle? Were you lucky with turnovers? Let me give you a modern example of what I mean.
The Chicago Bears’ 2018 defense was amazing. Even with a Mitchell Trubisky-led offense, the Bears had a 12-4 record and won the NFC North. It was on the back of the defense. The team was able to force 27 interceptions including seven from Kyle Fuller and six from Eddie Jackson. They added another 20 fumble recoveries as a team. Even more crazy was that five of the 27 interceptions and one of the 20 fumble recoveries were touchdowns. While the offense ranked 21st in the league, the defense was able to buoy them.
Fast forward to 2019. The Bears go 8-8 and place third in the division. The defense had a measly 10 interceptions with only one returned for a touchdown and 14 fumble recoveries for no touchdowns. Without the backbreaking pick-sixes, the offense couldn’t step up. The crazy thing is the Bears still had a very good defense but there was regression on the turnovers and it had a huge effect.
Okay, back to the New York Jets! Last season, there were a lot of things that went right. Sauce Gardner was a true shutdown corner and had a historic season. Can he keep up the pace? I hope he does but history tells us there will be regression to the means. The team had 45 total sacks up from 33 the previous year. If the Jets can duplicate last year, they are good. If they regress, there is more pressure on the offense.
The Coaching Staff Has Questions
This is Robert Saleh’s third year with the New York Jets. His record in the first two years is 11-23. I get that he inherited a terrible team and I’m not sure that Vince Lombardi could win with Zach Wilson. However, he hasn’t shown me enough for me to be confident that he is going to be able to manage a game in high-pressure situations. The other coach I am worried about is new offensive coordinator Nathanial Hackett.
This was absolutely a Rodgers hire which is totally fine. Also, some people are built to be coordinators and not head coaches. Hackett might be one of those. I still have concerns though. Hackett did not call plays in Green Bay. That was Matt LaFleur’s job. Is Hackett a good play caller? I have no clue. Also, I think Hackett is going to let Rodgers do whatever he wants. Is this a good thing or does Rodgers need someone to call him out when he is wrong? It could work out just fine but I need to see a proof of concept before I start to believe.
The Division And Conference Don’t Help The New York Jets
A bonus reason! The AFC is tough but before the New York Jets can worry about that, they have to worry about their own division. They have to face Josh Allen and the Bills twice a year. Then they have to deal with the speedy combination of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. New England isn’t a pushover especially now that Matt Patricia is not calling plays anymore. There are no easy wins.
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The New York Jets may be just fine. The roster has an insane amount of talent. I love watching some of the players on their roster. I simply think there are many questions that people are assuming we know the answer to. If this season starts off slow, things might get nasty in New York. If they don’t, get ready for a desperate fan base to awaken.
