NBA In-Season Tournament: Analyzing The Groups

The NBA In-Season Tournament is officially happening. After years of proposing the idea, the new CBA included this midseason tournament. Commissioner Adam Silver has long wanted to have a tournament like the soccer leagues have and now he got his wish. The tournament will consist of group play followed by the knockout rounds. The league announced the groups and, as with any group-stage tournament, looking at those can give us an idea of who has an easier route and who might be in the “group of death”.

NBA In-Season Tournament: How Are The Groups Chosen?

It seems prudent to start with how the groups are chosen. Similar to how soccer does it, each team was put into pots based on their record from last year. What this does is spread out the talent in the groups so one group doesn’t have all of the top teams while another group is left with the scraps. It allows for a more balanced tournament. After the drawing, the groups are as followed.

Western Conference

Eastern Conference

Which Groups Are The Easiest?

In the first look, East Group B looks favorable for the top teams. Both the Wizards and the Hornets are likely to be at the bottom of the league making a couple of victories in the group stage easier. While the Bucks, Heat, and Knicks were all playoff teams last year, having two subpar teams in the group means there is a larger margin for error. The rest of the groups seem well-balanced with a couple being ones that could take the title of the “group of death”.

The East in general simply seems easier. There could be some surprise teams that give the top teams trouble but I don’t see the Pistons usurping the 76ers or Cavaliers even if they improve. Boston should have an easier route as well as the Nets and Raptors are unknowns heading into 2023. Where the difficulty is increased is in the West.

NBA In-Season Tournament: Groups Of Death

In all of these groups for the NBA In-Season Tournament, there is little margin for error. For the soccer tournaments, the top two from each group move on. In this tournament, only the winner of the group moves on with two teams, one from each conference, being wild card teams. Groups that have three legit contenders will see one and maybe two of those teams miss out on the knockout rounds.

There are a couple of groups I’m looking at. West Group C could be a bloodbath. The Kings, Warriors, and Timberwolves were all playoff teams last year. Oklahoma City has one of the best young rosters and is adding Chet Holgrem. Then the Spurs have rookie phenom Victor Wembanyama who could be a tough out. This feels like a group where there is no easy victory.

West Group A is another one that will be tough to win. Because of their poor regular season record, the Lakers drew a group with the Suns and Grizzlies. The Trail Blazers make this group less daunting. Even the Jazz are still in the beginning stages of a rebuild. Based on the math, one of those other three teams will not make the knockout round. These teams are going to have a tough route to the knockout stages.

It is worth noting that West Group B is the most straightforward. Denver is the clear favorite and the rest of the teams all feel like they are a tier below. Ultimately, it is impossible to completely predict as injuries change the course of a team but a first look shows which groups will be the most fun to watch.

Will This Be A Hit?

The play-in tournament had its doubters but has been a success for the most part. While some have been skeptical of the NBA In-Season Tournament, this should add a fun wrinkle to the season. I’m a “don’t knock it ’til you try it” type of person. The regular season needs some juice. It also doesn’t really affect that much. The championship game is the only one that doesn’t count toward the regular season. This could also cultivate rivalries which is never a bad thing for fans. After a really fun season, this is something that NBA fans can look forward to for next year.