Photo via Keith Allison on Flickr
Not every MLB Umpire can be Pat Hoberg. Last night, as the New York Yankees scuffled to find offense against the Chicago White Sox, Aaron Boone had finally had enough. Home plate umpire Laz Diaz had just rung up Anthony Volpe after a borderline strike call on the outside corner. Boone got his money’s worth before receiving his 6th ejection of the season. He drew a line in the dirt where he claimed the pitch actually landed and even went so far as to mimic Diaz’s strikeout call.
As it turns out, the pitch in question caught enough of the plate to be considered an accurate call. However, Boone’s anger wasn’t without reason. When Diaz’s Umpire Scorecard was released, we saw that his call accuracy was only 89%. That’s 5.2% below the league average. It resulted in an Overall Favor score of +1.59 runs for the White Sox. That’s bad.
It’s not as though we used to have this kind of information. Popular Twitter profile UmpireScorecards is a comparatively recent entity. Scrutiny over MLB Umpire performance has skyrocketed since its inception, which has drawn ire from umpiring crews around the league.
Yet, just as much as new data has harmed the reputation of controversial shot callers like CB Bucknor and Angel Hernandez, it has also brought glory to the rare officials who get it right. Pat Hoberg is only 36 years old, but he is already cementing himself as one of the game’s all-time greats.
Who is Pat Hoberg?
Hoberg was born in Iowa, and debuted in the Majors in 2014. He was already drawing praise in 2018, when a Case Study performed at Boston University found him to be in the top 10 MLB Umpires in terms of accuracy.
That was only one year after he was promoted to a full-time position. Since then, he’s become a veritable veteran of playoff baseball. He even called balls and strikes during the World Baseball Classic earlier this year.
The crowning achievement of his young career came in Game 2 of the 2022 World Series between the Philadelphia Phillies and Houston Astros. On the biggest stage of all, Hoberg called a “perfect game.” No, not the kind where a pitcher retires all 27 batters without a baserunner. Instead, Hoberg called 129 out of 129 taken pitches correctly.
For the uninitiated, that sort of accuracy is almost unheard of. In fact, it was the first Umpire Perfect Game since the debut of Umpire Scorecards in the Summer of 2020. Pat Hoberg comes from ostensibly humble beginnings. He went to a small, private University in his home state, and not much is known about his path to the big leagues prior to 2014. Yet here he is, a titan in the game, and he’s only getting started.
The Data and Discipline Behind MLB Umpire Success
Most people assume that MLB umpiring is a simple task. After all, everyone sees the strike zone displayed in front of the catcher during games. However, that is actually only 1 of 4 strike zones that we ought to take into consideration when analyzing umpire accuracy.
That box you see on TV is called the K Zone. It has exactly nothing to do with MLB’s official rulebook strike zone. There’s also the enforced zone, which is the one actually created based on the umpire’s calls. Lastly, we now have the Statcast Zone, which purports to be much more accurate than the broadcasted K-zone. Umpires were incensed when K-Zone creators QuesTec first reached an agreement with Major League Baseball. Fans from all over the world were suddenly convinced that umps were horrific at their job.
However, K-Zone doesn’t account for a batter’s height, nor where they stand in the box. This is all to say that we, the viewer, don’t often have the best view of whether or not an MLB ump is calling a so-called clean game. Fortunately, the data collected by Umpire Scorecards takes all of these things into account.
In 2023, Hoberg has been one of the most consistently accurate and neutral umpires in the MLB. Earlier today, in fact, he called the balls and strikes in the Astros Mariners game, to the tune of a 98.6 accuracy score. We should also consider the fact that Hoberg almost unilaterally scores higher than his xACC (expected accuracy) which takes into account league averages, game conditions, etc.
Who are the worst, you ask? Of officials who have called at least 10 games this season, Mark Ripperger has been the least accurate. Ryan Blakney, Emil Jimenez, and Nate Tomlinson all have sub-94% accuracy on the year. Angel Hernandez isn’t accounted for here, since he only just came back from leave, and has only called 1 game from behind the plate.
The Human-side of the MLB Umpiring Crew
There’s more to this puzzle than mere numbers. Consider how many different pitching styles an umpire has to contend with in a single game. One might start the game calling balls and strikes with Spencer Strider on the mound. Strider is effectively two-pitch pitcher. Most of the time he throws a 98-100mph fastball with some vertical, arm-side movement. Five innings into the game, the umpire is likely locked in on where Strider’s fastball, slider and occasional change-up is going to cross the plate. However, what happens if Strider is taken out, and in comes veteran righty Colin McHugh, who throws almost exclusively off-speed pitches?
Adjusting to a 15mph difference in speed is hard enough. The umpire would also need to prepare for McHugh’s arsenal, including a sweeper, cutter and curveball, none of which he would have seen with Strider on the mound. No one can adjust to that transition perfectly.
Umpire Impact Aversion
Another factor to consider is the psychological profile of the umpire experience. Picture this: it’s Game 7 of the 2023 World Series. It’s the bottom of the 9th inning and the bases are loaded. The count is 2-2. The pitcher throws his curveball, and the batter offers at it, but checks his swing. The catcher appeals to the first-base umpire, claiming the hitter broke the plane with his half-swing. What would you do?
Perhaps you’re saying to yourself ‘I’d call it like I see it, if he crossed the plane he crossed the plane.’ The problem is, there is no set definition of what going around on a check-swing looks like. Moreover, it is entirely up to the discretion of the umpire. We have to consider the phenomenon called Impact Aversion.
This means that an MLB umpire is less likely to make a call that has a direct and profound effect on the game. They will naturally have a bias toward a call that has lesser ramifications. Can MLB prevent this? That’s part of why robo-ump supporters are so avid about removing the human element from the game.
This should put into perspective just how special it is that Pat Hoberg called a perfect game on the biggest stage of all.
The Reality of Umpire/Player Relationships
There is a tremendous amount of communication between umpires and players. A lot of players, particularly catchers, often have fantastic relationships with the home plate official on any given night.
Newly minted MLB content giant Jomboy Media produces a number of incredible podcasts. One of them is The Compound, where three current and former MLB players chop it up about news around the league. Chief among them is Ian Happ, the current Left Fielder for the Chicago Cubs. Thanks to The Compound, fans like us get fantastic insight into the reality of the MLB lifestyle.
Why is this important? Happ, along with Detroit Tigers utility player Zack Short and former Cubs reliever Dakota Mekkes, have discussed Pat Hoberg at length, and more than once. In November of 2022, the trio met to discuss Hoberg’s perfect game in the World Series. Happ went on to discuss Hoberg’s relationship with the players.
He has become one of the most respected officials across the league. In addition to his fabulous scorecard, he is also open and communicative with the players about what he’s seeing. This makes for a better game for everyone.
The Bigger Picture
Pat Hoberg has the respect of the players. He has the statistics to back it up. He’s consistently above average from position that is incredibly difficult to do well. All of that begs the question: is he the greatest MLB umpire of this generation?
What do you think? Follow The Forkball on X and let us know.
