Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (Brett Coomer/Houston Chronicle).
Nobody expected the 2023 Houston Texans to earn a spot in the postseason, much less win a playoff game. Demeco Ryans and C.J. Stroud emerged as one of the top coach-quarterback duos in the league in their first year together, winning ten games and earning the AFC South title for the first time since 2019. A dominant playoff victory over Cleveland capped off the Texans’ thrilling season. Houston pushed the chips to the center of the table over the offseason, adding veteran stars like Danielle Hunter, Joe Mixon, and Stefon Diggs. The stage was set for the Texans to contend for a championship.
The Texans have failed to take the leap that many expected coming into 2024. While they’ve already secured a playoff spot, Houston seems to be a tier below the true contenders in the AFC. The offense has not been nearly as explosive as the depth chart would indicate. The defense has hovered around the middle of the league. Houston is 9-7 with one week left in the season, but title hopes seem to be slipping away. So, is it time to panic for the Houston Texans?
Weak Offensive Line Play
Houston’s struggles start in the trenches. Due to poor play across the offensive line, Stroud has been under constant pressure for the majority of the season. According to ESPN, the Texans’ offensive line ranks 26th in pass block win rate. Stroud has been sacked more than any quarterback not named Caleb Williams this season. Through 16 games, Stroud has been sacked 52 times. He was sacked just 38 times in 2023. Houston has struggled to stay healthy up front, with contributors like Shaq Mason and Juice Scruggs missing time. The Texans’ starters and backups both have failed to protect their quarterback.
Stroud Struggling in Year Two
The Texans’ offensive line play has clearly affected Stroud. In 2023, Stroud was able to work through progressions as well as any rookie in recent memory. He excelled under pressure, posting an impressive 17.9% pressure-to-sack rate. This season, it’s been a different story. Stroud’s passer rating of 86 is over 15 points lower than he earned in 2023. He’s more than doubled his interception total from his rookie year. It seems that Stroud’s computer-like ability to process coverages has taken a significant step back in year two of his career. In the absence of an efficient running game, Stroud has been unable to carry this offense like he could in his rookie season.
Texans’ Playoff Outlook
Despite their failure to live up to preseason expectations, the Texans are in position to return to the playoffs. If the season ended today, Houston would hold the fourth seed in the AFC. They’d host the Steelers in round one. The ability to protect the quarterback is paramount in the playoffs, especially against an elite defense like Pittsburgh’s. It’s hard to imagine that the Texans would be favored in a matchup with almost any AFC playoff team as things currently stand. Is it time to panic for the Houston Texans? Maybe not, but there are clear weaknesses that need to be addressed this offseason if this team is to compete for a championship in 2025.
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