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Thus far in this MLB offseason the Chicago Cubs have acquired left-handed free agent starter, Matthew Boyd, right-handed reliever Eli Morgan and catcher Matt Thaiss. None of those transactions have Cubs’ fans dancing in the street. Boyd should be an upgrade over last season’s fourth starter, Kyle Hendricks. However, that’s a really low bar and Boyd’s health is a real issue
Boyd started eight games for the Guardians last season and compiled an ERA of 3.54 with great peripherals. He was also effective in the postseason for Cleveland. That’s nice, but two years at $29 million seems a lot to spend on someone with Boyd’s medical and professional background.
Eli Morgan is a bullpen depth piece and Matt Thaiss is someone I hope doesn’t see time on the Cubs’ big-league roster in 2025.
Clearly the Cubs need to do more. A lot more.
A look at the smoke surrounding the Cubs
The rumblings surrounding the Cubs indicate they aren’t going to be players in the market for this year’s group of top free agents. In order to be better, the Cubs need to be creative and effective in the trade market.
Nico Hoerner and Cody Bellinger have been the names most bandied about when it comes to Cubs most likely to be traded. Isaac Paredes and recently Seiya Suzuki have also been mentioned as trade bait.
Rumors indicate the Cubs are targeting high end pitching. White Sox lefty, Garrett Crochet and one of the Seattle Mariners starting pitchers seem to be the Cubs’ targets. Luis Castillo in particular could be of interest to the Cubs.
Why a Bellinger for Castillo trade works
Both the Mariners and Cubs seem to be working under cost constraints, though in the Cubs’ case it seems mostly self-imposed. The Cubs have an excess of outfielders while the Mariners have one of the deeper starting rotations in baseball.
The trade doesn’t necessarily give either team salary relief, but it does reallocate resources to a position of need.
The Cubs have what the Mariners and White Sox need
The Mariners could use not only Cody Bellinger but also Nico Hoerner and Isaac Paredes. Personally, I’d like to see the Cubs trade Paredes as opposed to Hoerner. However, the Cubs free up more salary by trading Hoerner.
Theoretically, Hoerner’s $11.5 million dollar salary in 2025 shouldn’t matter to the Cubs, but apparently it does. Matt Shaw is the Cubs top prospect and he’s going to be in the lineup soon. Probably in 2025. And he’s going to have to play somewhere. Second base is probably his best position.
Simply stated, if the Cubs still want to upgrade their rotation, Garrett Crochet makes sense. He wouldn’t cost much in salary, but a ton in prospects. And it appears the Cubs are more willing to spend that coin of the baseball realm.
Other possibilities
In addition to the Mariners and White Sox, the Yankees have been mentioned as trading partners for the Cubs. Nico Hoerner and Cody Bellinger would be great fits in the Yankees’ lineup. Depending on whether the Yankees sign Juan Soto or not, Bellinger could be a backup plan in the outfield, or a lefty bat at first base.
Hoerner would also fill the second base hole with the Yankees. Obviously Hoerner could help a lot of teams.
And finally, surprise surprise, the A’s have reportedly checked in on Nico Hoerner. The A’s are not the same as the A’s of 2023. They have already signed free agent starter Luis Severino and are actually trying to improve their team.
Should probably use your favorite MLB depth chart website to re-check that “the Mariners have one of the deeper starting rotations in baseball”
One injury, any kind of slump, regression or trade pushes that “deeper starting rotations in baseball” off the fence into a mid/upper 70 win total.
The Mariners working under cost constraints eliminates a FA addition of a similar arm, Hancock is a downgrade and the farm doesn’t provide any options for the opening day roster.
Using plan Z as a trade framework may work well for the Cubs but not the Mariners.
Have to go with plan C or D which is prospects but then the problem is the same as above with the teams switched.
I say call it a lost season, hope for high pick, lose another year of arbitration and wait for some (1) of the farm hitters to come up after their cup of coffee this year.