Forecasting wins and losses (Photo by the Author)
Some of the marquee games in Week 13 will be historical wins for the teams that emerge victorious!
UNLV wins over Hawaii
This could prove to be the game of the week. Hawaii is a much-improved team and has a 7-3 record. UNLV is a program on the rise under Dan Mullen. UNLV has the better offense, while Hawaii has the better defense. If this game were in Honolulu, I’d pick the Rainbow Warriors, but since it’s in Vegas, I’m going with the home team in UNLV. But a Hawaii win wouldn’t shock me.
Oklahoma wins over Missouri
If Oklahoma were still coached by Lincoln Riley, I’d take Missouri in this one, but Brent Venables’ defense is good. They showed that against Bama. Missouri star running back Ahmad Hardy will need a game like the 300-yarder he had against Mississippi State. Missouri has a top 25 offense and defense. Oklahoma has a top-15 defense, but their offense is 89th in the nation. Missouri very well could pull the upset, but I think the home-field advantage and the defense leads Oklahoma to a win.
Northwestern wins over Minnesota
This is not an easy pick to make. These teams are very similar in style and in demeanor. Both have solid defenses and offense that have seen better days. Northwestern is the home team with this game being played at Wrigley Field in Chicago. Northwestern gets bowl eligible against Minnesota.
Iowa State wins over Kansas
Iowa State and Kansas are very similar this year. They’re similar in record, and their offenses both rank in the 60s nationally. If there is some separation, it’s on defense. ISU’s defense ranks 39th in the nation while Kansas’s ranks 75th. This is also a home game for Iowa State, the last home game of the season. Iowa State’s defensive advantage and homefield advantage power them to the win.
James Madison wins over Washington State
Washington State has nearly upset some very good teams this year. They almost took down Ole Miss (10-1) and Virginia (9-2). Both on the road, like this game. You can’t count the Cougars out, but James Madison is a good team, too. They’re in the top 20 in total offense and total defense. The Dukes win at home to continue their pursuit of a playoff berth.
Arizona wins over Baylor
Baylor and Arizona both have good offenses. Noah Fifita of Arizona and Sawyer Robertson of Baylor do fantastic jobs of leading their teams. While their offenses are both near the top of the Big 12, the defenses are a different story. Arizona is in the top two of the Big 12, while Baylor is in the bottom four. The Wildcats’ homefield advantage and their defensive advantage will get them the win.
Kennesaw State wins over Missouri State
Despite their even records of 7-3, Kennesaw State has a solid statistical advantage over Missouri State going into this game. This is a de facto elimination game, with the winner staying alive for the Conference USA title game and the loser being eliminated from contention. Kennesaw State is the home team in Georgia and gets the victory.
Oregon wins over USC
In what was a Pac-12 rivalry, Oregon and USC have had some great matchups over the last couple of decades. This looks to be a great matchup and another great chapter in this series. USC’s defense may be the best Lincoln Riley has had there. But, Oregon has just as good a defense. The Ducks win in the Autzen Zoo.
Vanderbilt wins over Kentucky
Kentucky has always played great defense under Coach Stoops. They’re fighting for their postseason lives with their 5-5 record, and that makes them dangerous. But this game is in Nashville, and is the last home game for players like Diego Pavia, who have taken Vandy from being the conference punchline to having a respectable football season. Vanderbilt wins at home.
Duke wins over North Carolina
This basketball rivalry on the gridiron will be a good game. Duke wins with their quarterback, Darian Mensah, who is having a fantastic season. Mensah has over 3,000 yards and 25 touchdowns. He leads an offense that will be too strong for North Carolina.
TCU wins over Houston
TCU is on the road at Houston. TCU has had a rough couple of weeks against Iowa State and BYU. They still have a potent offense with quarterback Josh Hoover and wide receiver Eric McAlister. Houston has a good one of their own with Connor Weigman and Dean Connors. TCU wins a close one, though, in Houston.
Georgia Tech wins over Pitt
I’ve got to go with Georgia Tech and Haynes King in this one. Notre Dame ran all over Pitt last week, and Haynes King will find success in running the ball, too. Georgia Tech is at home, and a win puts them in the ACC Championship before their big rivalry game against Georgia.
LSU wins over Western Kentucky
I wanted to go with WKU. It would be poetic for a top-tier SEC team to lose their November Layup. Even though Western Kentucky is having a good season and is 8-2, I just don’t see it happening on the road at LSU.
SMU wins over Louisville
Two weeks ago, I would have picked Louisville, but back-to-back losses have them reeling right now. On the other sideline, SMU is peaking right now. Louisville has lost two in a row with an ACC title game berth and a College Football Playoff berth on the line, while SMU is still in contention for a trip to the ACC title game. SMU wins at home.
Miami wins over Virginia Tech
An old Big East rivalry will be renewed between the Hurricanes and the Hokies. Virginia Tech just hired James Franklin, and he and Mario Cristobal will have some great matchups in the years to come. On this Saturday, though, Miami wins and keeps their playoff hopes alive.
Texas wins over Arkansas
This old Southwest Conference rivalry game should be a good one. Despite their 2-8 record this year, Arkansas has only been blown out once, and that was against Notre Dame. Six of their eight losses have been by six points or less. They lost Ole Miss by six, Memphis by one, Tennessee by three, Texas A&M by three, Mississippi State by three, and LSU by one. This seems like another game where they lose by a field goal, again, but at some point, do they finally turn one of those defeats into a victory?
Nebraska wins over Penn State
The Big Ten’s leading rusher, Emmett Johnson, will just be too much for the Penn State offense. These two offenses have become reliant on their star running backs due to injuries to their starting quarterbacks. Penn State will play tough at home, and while fighting for a bowl berth, but Nebraska wins in a close one, thanks to Johnson.
Cal wins over Stanford
A rivalry game where the two teams are moving in opposite directions. Stanford got eliminated from the postseason in their last game, while Cal upset Louisville on the road. Fresh off that win and a bye, Cal will win. The Bears have a phenomenal freshman in Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. He proves again to be the difference maker for Cal.
Utah wins over Kansas State
Kansas State had a lot of high expectations coming into the season, but find themselves at 5-5 fighting to make a bowl game. Now, they’re on the road at a Utah team that looks like a playoff team (even if the CFP Committee thinks they need help). K-State will play disciplined football, but Utah will be too much in Salt Lake City.
Ohio State wins over Rutgers
Ohio State shouldn’t have trouble with Rutgers, but it will be interesting to see how they play with both Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate likely being out. It’s a chance for the Buckeyes to show how well they can run, and for quarterback Julian Sayin to show that the passing game has been awesome because of him just as much as it has been because of Tate and Smith.
BYU wins over Cincinnati
BYU and UC are very similar teams, just trending a little bit in different directions at the moment. Bear Bachmeier and Brendan Sorsby are very similar and are having similar seasons statistically. The last time they lost at home by more than one score was in November 2023. BYU has a chance to further prove that they belong in the College Football Playoff conversation with or without winning the Big 12. A win in Cincinnati, Ohio, over the Bearcats would be further evidence proving that.
2025 Record: 136-87 (Overall Record Since October 2024: 238-130)
