The Chicago Bears Justin Fields Dilemma

Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields is making a normally easy decision into a really hard one. Thanks to a trade last season that looks better and better by the week, the Bears are in line for the number one overall pick with high-quality talent at the QB position available. Normally, this is a slam-dunk decision. Take the quarterback you think is best and move on. However, the presence of Fields makes that decision a little more difficult.

Chicago Bears Justin Fields Dilemma

There is going to be a lot of debate until draft day (and maybe after that as well) on what the Bears should do with Fields. He has shown improvement this season with his new weapons on offense. The draft is often a dart throw, especially for quarterbacks. Would the Bears throw away an established quarterback for a giant maybe in the draft?

On the flip side, it would be painful to trade out of that pick, keep Fields, and have either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye go on to be one of the league’s greatest quarterbacks. This draft makes it even more difficult. If it was a weak quarterback draft, the decision is easy but people are throwing around the word “generational” with these two players, and passing on them could make the team a laughingstock for years to come. Let’s break this down from all sides. My goal isn’t to convince you either way but to flesh out the argument in a real way.

The Case For The Chicago Bears Keeping Justin Fields

Let’s say the Bears decide to ride with Fields. While the stats are a little concerning he hasn’t exactly had the greatest supporting cast. In his rookie season, Matt Nagy and Ryan Pace were on their last leg and doing everything they could to save their jobs. In the next season, the offensive line was a mess and the second-leading receiver was Equanimeous St. Brown. Fields has his flaws but I am not sure who could have covered up the ugliness of those rosters. This year, a big reason for the Fields showing improvement is a better offensive line and the addition of DJ Moore. Fields and Moore have real chemistry. With the draft capital and cap room, they could really fill out the roster.

According to Spotrac, the Bears should have about $63 million in cap space next year. Pair that with a couple of top ten picks and things could get interesting. The Bears could grab any combination of Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze, Jared Verse, Joe Alt, Olu Fashanu, Brock Bowers, and Laiatu Latu. The possibilities are endless and they could get a blue-chip prospect on either side of the ball. They will also have money to throw at free agents. Tee Higgins, Brian Burns, Mike Evans, and Chris Jones are just some of the players who will be looking for a new contract. Paired with the draft capital, they could bring in a lot of talent for 2024.

A King’s Ransom For The No. 1 Overall Pick

The 2024 draft is like any other draft. Scouts have been hyping up these prospects the whole year. I bet there is at least one team that does a massive trade-up. If the Bears make the pick available, they could likely get a king’s ransom for it. If the Chicago Bears sour on Justin Fields after next season, they can easily take a quarterback next year with one of their many picks or use those picks in a package to trade up. If Fields is the guy, the Bears now have a war chest of picks to either fill the roster with young talent or trade to grab the final piece of a championship team.

No Guarantee In The Draft

I know everyone is fawning over Williams and Maye but that doesn’t mean they are a sure thing. There have been many quarterbacks that have been taken with high picks that have never panned out. It would be a massive misstep if the Bears get rid of Fields only for the rookie they choose to be a complete bust while Fields goes on to be a solid starter in the NFL. Keeping him means you go with the known commodity rather than rolling the dice on something better.

This feels like an attractive option. If it worked out, it could set up the Bears as a championship contender for years to come. It isn’t without risk though and that is where we get to the argument against keeping Fields.

The Case Against Keeping Justin Fields

There are three main reasons for the Chicago Bears to move on from Justin Fields. The first is money. The biggest weapon in all of sports is the rookie quarterback contract. With Fields being in his third year, he has an extension coming up. According to Spotrac, Fields will command somewhere in the $45-48 million a year range. This is based on projections of the cap and past quarterback contracts. To give you an idea of how much less a rookie quarterback, even the number one pick is, Bryce Young carries a cap hit of $6.9 million this year and it never goes above $12 million for his rookie contract. Is the play of Fields worth that big of a cap hit?

Justin Fields Play

Money is always an issue though there are lots of cap things teams can do. Has his play on the field warranted that kind of money? We’ve already chronicled the team’s struggles but Fields definitely isn’t perfect. He is 8-26 as a starter. While wins aren’t totally a quarterback stat, that isn’t good. His interception rate has gone from worst in the NFL in 2021, to second-worst in 2022 and tied for the 7th-worst in 2023. To make matters worse, he has the most fumbles by a quarterback since 2021 and the next closest person is 6 behind him. His timing also seems just a little slow when you watch the tape. While the potential is still there, we haven’t seen it so far and the history of late-blooming quarterbacks isn’t great.

History Of Late-Blooming Quarterbacks

Not every quarterback takes the league by storm right away. Some take time to develop. Here is a list of the best quarterbacks who didn’t really start performing well until after they had been in the league for five years. Alex Smith, Matt Schaub, David Garrard, Kerry Collins, Rich Gannon, and Steve Young. While there are more, these are the most recent. Young is the only one of the bunch to really take his team to new levels but he had possibly the greatest receiver of all time Jerry Rice on his team. I love DJ Moore but he isn’t Rice. The others were fine but is that really what the Chicago Bears want with Justin Fields? They want more than fine.

Other Factors To Consider

There are a couple of other factors that I want to call out here. Moore has been very vocal the past couple of weeks about his support for Fields. If the team decides to move on they risk ticking off their best receiver. If Fields has the support of the locker room, moving on from him could mess with team chemistry in a big way.

Does Matt Eberflus keep his job? What about the rest of the coaching staff? If there is a new coach in Chicago, the new coach may not care what Fields looks like. He will want to get his guy and move forward. The whole argument becomes moot if a new person simply wants to come in and clean house.

Then there is the embarrassment factor. Bears fans have been hearing for years about how they passed on Patrick Mahomes and drafted Mitchell Trubisky. Do they want to risk doing that again? While it would be terrible if they drafted a QB and Fields had success elsewhere, I think it would be more embarrassing if they kept Fields while Williams and Maye went on to transform another franchise.

No Easy Answer

There is no easy answer to this. In doing research, there are compelling cases for both options. While I have my opinion, I wouldn’t fault the Chicago Bears for whatever they do with Justin Fields. We usually don’t get this type of drama with the number one overall pick. This will be one of the most fascinating storylines of the NFL offseason.