Chargers Brandon Staley: Analytics Are Right; Everything Else Is Wrong

Los Angeles Chargers head coach Brandon Staley is the poster child for game decisions based on analytics. Throughout his time as the head coach of the Chargers, he has made many questionable calls that the analytics community praises as the right decision regardless of the outcome. For head coach Brandon Staley, the analytics may be right but every decision after that is suspect.

Chargers Brandon Staley Analytics

This isn’t the first time that Staley has had to defend his analytics-based decision. I googled “Brandon Staley 4th Down Decision” and had to sift through articles until I found the specific one I was trying to get to. He is a magnet for these decisions apparently. Overall, analytics are a good thing. Being aggressive on 4th and short is what is best for winning long term. Even if you miss a couple here and there, trying to go for the win is usually the correct decision. Here’s where Staley gets it wrong. He makes the correct decision based on analytics and then everything after that is completely botched.

Brandon Staley Analytics: Sunday’s 4th Down Decision

For the purposes of this article, I am going to use the decision from Sunday’s game against the Vikings. One reason I want to use this is the Chargers actually won thanks to a late Kirk Cousins interception but it illustrates my point very well. Staley opted to go for it from his own 25-yard line. It was a 4th-and-1 and the Vikings had no timeouts meaning that if the team converted, the game would be over. A handoff to Josh Kelley was stuffed by the Minnesota defensive line. The Vikings were down four with the ball on their opponent’s 25-yard line. According to Seth Walder, the Brandon Staley analytics were as follows.

Win Percentage Go: 88.9%

Win Percentage Punt: 82.1%

88 is higher than 82 so from a very basic view, Staley made the right decision. The numbers don’t take into account everything though.

The Situation

I’m not sure how Staley doesn’t factor in the situation to his decision. If he misses this and the Vikings score, the season is over. 0-2 has comeback possibilities. 0-3 leaves a team with a 2% chance of making the playoffs. That is a lot riding on this play. What also confuses me is the drop-off in win percentage from a punt. 88 vs. 82 is basically nothing. In school, if I got an 82 and my friend got an 88 I’m not leaving class thinking my friend is lightyears ahead of me in terms of smarts. Going for it in this specific situation simply because it provides a 6% better chance at winning is an incorrect read on the situation in my opinion. Punt the ball and give yourself an 82% chance of leaving with a win.

The Play Call

The play call matters. Let’s hypothetically say that there was a bigger disparity between the decision to go for it and punt. Let’s say it was 90 vs. 50. This to me is a clear go-for-it situation. Now let’s assume that I am in charge of the play call. I decide that we are going to do a double reverse, running back pass to a receiver 40 yards down the field. My decision to go for it may have been correct but my play call is a low percentage play.

Staley calls a run to their backup running back, Josh Kelley, right into the line. It was an easy play to stop. Herbert had a career day and it was a simple run to Kelley. I don’t hate the play call from the standpoint that it wasn’t too complicated but it also lacked any creativity and deception to give the offense a little edge. For this play, this should be the best one in your playbook, not a common run that you use to start the game.

The Opponent Matters

If this was a game against the Miami Dolphins, I get it. That offense is one of the best in the league and you do not want to give them another chance to see the field. The Vikings, while having a good offensive season, have a history of blowing games like this. Throughout the game, Minnesota struggled to put together complete drives. Cousins couldn’t even go 25 yards without making a mistake. It seems prudent to make Cousins and the Minnesota offense try to go 70 yards instead of possibly giving them an out. The Brandon Staley analytics doesn’t seem to take any of that into account.

An Endless Debate

Half of you are reading this article agreeing with me and the other half are ready to rip me a new one on my inability to truly understand analytics. It’s an endless argument with both sides having valid cases. Honestly, I go back and forth. I’m also arguing a situation where the Chargers won the game rendering this decision moot. What frustrates me most about the Brandon Staley analytics decisions is that there doesn’t seem to be any rhyme or reason. Sometimes he’ll play conservative and punt and other times he is ultra-aggressive. If Staley is going to keep his job, he needs to make better decisions after listening to analytics.