Nov 12, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; New York Giants quarterback Tommy DeVito (15) looks to pass as Dallas Cowboys defensive end Sam Williams (54) chases during the second quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
There is a lot of bad quarterback play in the NFL right now. It has been well-documented this season that scoring is down and we have seen many unlikely candidates start an NFL game. Tommy DeVito, Clayton Tune, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson have all started games this season with not-great results. So why start them? Aren’t there plenty of veteran quarterbacks who could come in and keep the ship afloat? While there are options out there, I believe that the rise in bad quarterback play is a side effect of teams trying to get the ultimate advantage.
Bad Quarterback Play In The NFL
10 rookie quarterbacks have started games this season. Three were late-round draft picks and a couple were undrafted free agents. It isn’t surprising that with half the league starting rookies, especially late-round rookies, that offense is down. Outside of C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, and maybe the first couple of weeks of Anthony Richardson before he went down with an injury, the stat lines have been abysmal. DeVito passed for 86 yards on Sunday. Thompson-Robinson had 121 yards but three interceptions. It hasn’t been great. So why do it? It is a quest for the ultimate advantage, a cheap quarterback.
The Search For A Cheap Quarterback
NFL teams have to manage the salary cap. The quarterback position is one of the most expensive in the league. The second a quarterback gets paid, it completely changes how a team has to build its roster. 20 years ago, teams really didn’t start late-round rookies until they had a couple of years under their belt in the NFL. Ryan Fitzpatrick made a career out of being the temporary starting quarterback for teams while they figured out what to do long-term. Now, teams are more than happy to throw their rookies into the deep end to see if they can swim. It is a risk that teams are willing to make because the payoff is huge.
2013 Seattle Seahawks
There are a couple of examples of how the potential of bad quarterback play in the NFL pays off in a big way. In the early 2010s, the Seattle Seahawks had one of the most devastating defenses around. Part of this was hitting on some drafts but a big part of the success was Russell Wilson. He was taken in the third round of the 2012 NFL Draft meaning he was on a dirt cheap contract. The team could then spend the money elsewhere and they spent it on the defense. Bobby Wagner, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, K.J. Wright, Richard Sherman, Bruce Irvin, Michael Bennett, Byron Maxwell, and Cliff Avril were all on the defensive side of the ball. That is absolutely bonkers but they could do it because the salary cap wasn’t eaten up by Wilson.
2023 San Francisco 49ers
This year’s 49ers team is a perfect example of what this looks like in action. Brock Purdy is the ultimate advantage. Everyone is shocked when the team is able to sign another big-name player but it is because of Purdy’s contract. Trent Williams, Arik Armstead, Nick Bosa, George Kittle, Fred Warner, Deebo Samuel, Javon Hargrave, Kyle Juszcyyk, Charvarius Ward, and Dre Greenlaw are the top ten cap hits on the team while Purdy takes up only $889,252. To give you an idea of how much savings that is, Dak Prescott is the number one cap hit for the Cowboys at $26.8 million.
It feels unfair when one team is stockpiling talent but that is what makes this such a huge advantage. The 49ers can surround Purdy with the best team available because they aren’t tying up 11% of their cap (the Prescott number) in one player. Once the 49ers have to pay Purdy, tough decisions have to be made about the rest of the roster.
Teams Willing To Risk Bad Quarterback Play
It is for this reason that teams are willing to risk bad quarterback play in the NFL. The reward is the ultimate advantage. The ability to stockpile talent with a quarterback who is cheap means that teams want to see if they have hit the next Russell Wilson or Brock Purdy. Is Clayton Tune a Pro Bowl quarterback? History tells us probably not. But what if he was and the Cardinals have struck gold? It drastically changes their outlook. Teams are willing to risk poor play on the field for the opportunity to have the ultimate advantage. Bad quarterback play in the NFL will continue because of this as teams try to find their franchise quarterback on a cheap deal.
Including Bryce Young in the same category as Stroud this season is silly. Stroud is in a league of his own for rookies thus far.
You’re also ignoring the poor QB play from some established QBs. The amount of interceptions this year is nuts and it feels like we’ll see multiple players with 20+ picks once the season is over. Josh Allen just reached 11 in 10 games.