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The Atlanta Falcons had one of the most dominating rushing attacks in 2022. The fact that they were able to have a successful offense with Marcus Mariota under center says something about how dominate the running game was. Teams could load the box and still could not stop the rushing attack. In 2023, the Falcons have leaned even more into the running game. They drafted Bijan Robinson in the top ten and retained their offensive line. This offense is built to counter the modern NFL defense.
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The Modern NFL Defense
The modern NFL defense operates on this idea. The vast majority of offenses have prioritized the passing attack and those plays have a higher probability of going for more yards. This means that defenses should be going all out to stop the pass. If teams want to run the ball and pick up four yards, great! The defense will sit back and stop the 14 yard pass from happening. Chances are that a lineman makes a big play and forces the offense to pass.
Atlanta Falcons: Modern NFL Defense Killers
Here’s why the Falcons dominate. Their rushing attack is so well designed that they can easily pick up six to seven yards a carry. Atlanta is very happy to slowly work their way down the field wearing you down in the process. Since teams do not have the personnel to counter the running game, it forces corners and safeties to get involved. Head coach Arthur Smith is no stranger to this strategy. He used it effectively with Derrick Henry in Tennessee. Despite the domination in the running game, the offense still stalled and this is where Atlanta is hoping to evolve in 2023.
Atlanta Falcons: Desmond Ridder
Mariota was not great in the passing game. Teams did not have to respect his arm. At some point, no matter how dominant the rushing attack is, nine or ten guys in the box are going to make a play. The team is hoping Ridder is the answer. While Ridder didn’t light the world on fire last season, the team is hoping with a full offseason he can be more of an asset in the passing game. The weapons are there. Kyle Pitts and Drake London are electric playmakers. If teams try to bring nine guys in the box, the Atlanta Falcons are hoping to punish them.
Will This Work?
The strategy has a couple of flaws. If the team falls behind, it is difficult to come back. Working your way down the field in six to seven yard chunks is great when you are up by 14 but not great when you are down by 14. It also completely depends on the quarterback being competent. If Ridder is a bust, the offense will struggle like it did last season. The good news is the Atlanta Falcons have proof of concept and can win some games.
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How many will the Falcons win in 2023? The NFC is wide open and I wouldn’t be surprised if by the start of the season they are favored to win. The Atlanta Falcons are looking to counter modern NFL defenses. Will it work or will it be a failed attempt to outthink the league?
