A Dying Star: The Downfall of the Dallas Cowboys

The news broke on Tuesday that Dak Prescott will undergo season-ending surgery to repair his injured hamstring. This is devastating news for both Cowboys fans and CeeDee Lamb fantasy football managers. Without Prescott under center, the Cowboys playoff hopes are all but squashed. Most people will likely reflect on this season for Dallas as one ruined by injuries, but this ship has been sinking for quite some time. Prior to Prescott’s injury, Dallas was 3-5, struggling to keep up with elite teams on both sides of the ball. This is not a minor blip for an otherwise thriving franchise. It’s the culmination of a quiet decline that stretches back for years. So, what has led to the downfall of the Dallas Cowboys?

Playoff Struggles

The Cowboys’ ineptitude in the postseason is no secret. At this point, it’s one of the first things fans associate with the franchise. Dallas has managed just three playoff wins since 2010 despite posting the seventh-highest win percentage in the NFL during that stretch. But Dallas’ struggles against top opponents reach beyond the playoffs. The Cowboys have underperformed consistently against elite teams in recent years, especially outside of their division. Take the 2023 season, for example. Dallas was able to dominate lesser opponents like the Giants, Jets, Panthers, and Patriots. When it came time to face off with contenders like the 49ers, Bills, and eventually the Packers, the Cowboys fell flat. 

There are more than a few reasons for this, but one major factor is a lack of schematic creativity and innovation. Under the current regime, Dallas has often played copycat to offensive innovators like Sean McVay, Mike McDaniel, and Kyle Shanahan. The Cowboys take note of play calling trends around the league and implement them into the gameplan. Against weak defenses, this tactic works like a charm. However, when Dallas’ initial gameplan is shut down, they haven’t shown the ability to adjust. This schematic complacency is indicative of a larger issue.

Lack of Aggression on All Fronts

The Dallas Cowboys as a franchise seem to be content with landing just above mediocrity. From a business perspective, it’s hard to blame them. They’re the most valuable sports franchise in the world by a wide margin. Despite the lack of playoff success, the Cowboys have consistently been mentioned alongside contenders in recent years, leading to increased media attention and, subsequently, profits. This is due to a series of safe, risk-averse choices both on and off the field. Jason Garrett remained the Cowboys’ head coach for nine seasons despite winning just two playoff games. For context, the only current head coaches with a longer tenure are Mike Tomlin, John Harbaugh, and Andy Reid.

After Finally moving on from Garrett, Dallas selected Mike McCarthy to be his successor. McCarthy was a sensible choice, having previously won the Super Bowl with Green Bay. The McCarthy hire came with a high floor, but a low ceiling. During his time in Dallas, McCarthy has posted a commendable 45-31 record. However, as I previously mentioned, his lack of adaptability and innovation has led to consistent disappointment.

This apparent risk aversion bleeds into other areas, as well. For the most part, the Cowboys have drafted well over the last decade or so. Per ESPN, Dallas ranks fourth in the league in Career Approximate Value Over Expected (a common measure of drafting success) from 2012 to 2021. As contracts wind down for these players, though, the Cowboys often wait far too long to re-sign them. Dak Prescott is the perfect example. Rather than inking a new deal for Prescott at the beginning of the 2023 season, Dallas waited until after he had proven himself capable of playing at a near-MVP level. This strategy minimized risk, but the Cowboys ended up paying Prescott around $10 million per year more than they likely would have had they agreed to a contract before the season. Now, Dallas is stuck paying a slightly above-average quarterback more than any other player in the NFL.

What Needs to Change for the Cowboys?

Fear not, Cowboys fans. There is hope for improvement. In all likelihood, this is Mike McCarthy’s final year in Dallas. This means that, in the offseason, the Cowboys will have the opportunity to hire a new head coach. There will be plenty of safe options with long résumés available. Instead of hiring a familiar name, Dallas should take a risk by seeking out an innovator. There is enough talent on this roster to build around if the right hands are at the wheel. Dallas currently has over $25 million in cap space to work with this offseason, with the ability to free up more space by restructuring a few contracts. If they make a great coaching hire, the Cowboys could instantly become a contender. If not, I’ll check back on this team in another five years.