Phil's Friday Forecast Week 12 (Photo by the Author)
Last week I went 12-7. This week, there are some bigger games to pick. Alabama-Oklahoma, Georgia-Texas, BYU-TCU, USC-Iowa, and more. With only four Saturdays left before the 12 College Football Playoff teams are announced, every game matters.
Oregon wins over Minnesota
This will be a more competitive game than it looks at first glance. Minnesota has shown some strength at times this year, and won’t go quietly. Oregon, at home, at night, will just be too strong. The Ducks swim better than the Gophers row the boat.
Alabama wins over Oklahoma
Last year, in a big home win, Oklahoma knocked Alabama out of the College Football Playoff by giving them their third loss of the season. This year, Alabama is going to return the favor. It is by no means as easy as an extra point, but Ty Simpson and the Tide at home, with revenge on their minds, get it done.
Utah wins over Baylor
Baylor has a prolific offense led by quarterback Sawyer Robertson. That gives them a puncher’s chance in every game they play. The Bears’ defense has struggled, though. Utah’s only two losses came against the best two defenses in the Big 12. The Utes’ Devon Dampier will lead them to victory.
North Texas wins over UAB
UAB has shown they can upset the big boys of the conference with their win this season over Memphis. That will have grabbed North Texas’ attention, and Drew Mestemaker and the Mean Green offense will be ready to go and slay the UAB dragon.
Virginia wins over Duke
Both teams are in the conference title and playoff berth hunt, and both teams are coming off heartbreaking losses. The key will be whether Chandler Morris plays for Virginia. Without him, last week, they came to a grinding halt. If he plays, Virginia should get to 9-2.
Memphis wins over ECU
ECU is a sneaky good team in the American Conference. They move the ball very well and have some sure tacklers on defense. If Memphis hadn’t been upset by Tulane last week, I might pick ECU in an upset here. I won’t be surprised if the Pirates do pull off the upset, but I think Memphis will be ready for it and weather it after last week’s loss.
Georgia wins over Texas
I want to pick Texas here. I was one of the few who didn’t write them off after the Florida loss, and didn’t claim Arch Manning was a bust after that game either. They can beat Georgia. But every time I start to think they will, I remember how badly Georgia destroyed them in their two games last year. Georgia’s the winner here.
Illinois wins over Maryland
In September, this game looked like it was going to be a top 25 matchup. Illinois has since stumbled, and Maryland hasn’t won since starting 4-0. While it may be too late for Illinois to make the College Football Playoff this season, it won’t be too late for them to get another win and have their program moving in the right direction.
Indiana wins over Wisconsin
I wouldn’t have included this game had Wisconsin not upset Washington last week. The Badgers showed they have some fight in them. I don’t think they have what it takes to make this a slugfest like they did last week, and I don’t think a soggy game will help them slow Indiana. The Hoosiers stay undefeated.
Jacksonville State wins over Kennesaw State
In a Conference USA clash for first place in the league, Jax State battles Kennesaw State. Jax State has a strong running game with one of the nation’s leading rushers in Cam Cook. Cook will be the difference maker in giving Kennesaw State their first Conference USA loss of the season.
Miami wins over NC State
Miami should win this game. I think they will win this game. But, if the NC State team that beat Georgia Tech in a shootout shows up, this could have us talking about another Miami meltdown. Still, I think Mario Cristobal and his team finish differently and with more strength this year.
Ole Miss wins over Florida
Could this be a game between where Lane Kiffin coaches and where he will coach next year? I think Florida will go with USF’s Alex Golesh, and that the Kiffin to the Gators speculation won’t amount to much. Neither will Florida’s ability to stop Ole Miss.
Navy wins over USF
Navy started 7-0 and have since lost two in a row. Their hopes for a conference title and beyond are riding on this game. If quarterback Blake Horvath is back, Navy could and should win. Even if Braxton Woodson starts for Navy, they have a fighting chance against a solid USF team.
Utah State wins over UNLV
I’m going with the Aggies in this game because UNLV’s defense has struggled this season, and this will likely be a wild Mountain West shootout. With the teams being in separate conferences next year, this will be a good game to remember the old Mountain West by.
Notre Dame wins over Pitt
I think Pat Narduzzi’s bluster about only worrying about ACC games will bite Pitt in the backside. Notre Dame is a very strong team and, with no conference to win, is playing with a sense of urgency and trying to win big to ensure a playoff berth. They make the ACC look bad this week.
Boise State wins over San Diego State
A Mountain West battle that will be a Pac-12 (8? 9? Oh, whatever) this time next year. Before being routed by Hawaii last week, I may have picked San Diego State to win this one. Boise tops SDSU this time, though.
USC wins over Iowa
You just never know with Iowa. They could pull an upset on the West Coast against USC, but Southern Cal’s offense is too strong. SC’s defense is also playing at a much more respectable level than in recent years and should have a good game against Iowa’s old-school offense.
BYU wins over TCU
The Cougars have struggled with TCU in the past. TCU has a good quarterback in Josh Hoover, and he runs a good offense. BYU’s offense is good, and their defense is good enough to disrupt TCU’s offense. BYU will be focused after their loss to Texas Tech. BYU wins it.
Cincinnati wins over Arizona
Maybe the most underrated matchup of the week is between 7-2 Cincinnati and 6-3 Arizona. The Bearcats are tough to play at home in Cincy. They’ve had a week off to stew about the loss to Utah, and if they want their Big 12 title hopes to stay alive, this is a must-win for them. Cincinnati wins at home in Ohio.
Ohio State wins over UCLA
This should be a layup for Ohio State. UCLA has shown potential at times this year, but a night game in Columbus against a 3-6 team should be a win for the defending champions. It will be interesting to see if the Buckeyes have Carnell Tate back after he missed last week’s game at Purdue.
