Sep 14, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles safety Justin Evans (30) breaks up a pass to Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson (87) during the fourth quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
We hear it every year. Avoid the dreaded 0-2 start in the NFL. Must-win games get added to the slate in week 2 as teams try to avoid this apparent death sentence. However, we have seen teams start slow and still be able to make the playoffs. With the additional game and extra playoff team, it has become easier to recover from a poor start. Still, an 0-2 start is not great in the NFL. How hard is it to recover?
Quick Numbers On An 0-2 Start In The NFL
Since 1990, 270 teams have started the season 0-2. Only 31 of those teams made the playoffs which comes out to just over 11%. Most recently, the Cincinnati Bengals 0-2 the year after their Super Bowl appearance and made it to the AFC Championship Game. The 1993 Dallas Cowboys, 2001 New England Patriots, and 2007 New York Giants are the only teams to win a Super Bowl after starting 0-2. (It is worth noting that Tom Brady and Emmitt Smith were big reasons behind a couple of those seasons). The stats are clear. Starting 0-2 isn’t a death sentence but it makes the rest of the season much harder.
Not Every 0-2 Start Is Equal In The NFL
It is difficult to determine how bleak an 0-2 start is in 2023 due to a variety of factors. Not all 0-2 starts are created equal. Let’s take this year’s Bengals as an example. If they start 0-2 this year by losing to the Ravens on Sunday, the two losses are against divisional opponents. This means that winning the division becomes very difficult and in all likelihood, they are gunning for a wild card spot. By way of contrast, the Chiefs lost to an out of conference opponent and the only team that won in their division is the Raiders. They play the Jaguars on Sunday and while a loss is bad, neither of those losses are divisional games making it more likely that the division crown is within reach.
Outside of the division, what the conference looks like makes a difference. The AFC has a lot of teams that are gunning for playoff spots. In a couple of divisions, you could make a case for any of the teams to make it to the postseason. An 0-2 start in the AFC could spell disaster later in the season. The NFC has clear frontrunners. After that, it is really anyone’s guess. Starting 0-2 in the NFC doesn’t seem as terrible because there is a world where a 9-8 team could make the playoffs. Having to go 9-6 for the rest of the season does not seem out of the realm of possibility.
Expanded Playoffs And Additional Game
The issue with the stat since 1990 is the playoffs look very different right now. In 2020, the NFL added an additional wild card team. When only two non-division winners made the playoffs, an 0-2 start made making the playoffs an uphill climb. Now, the incline isn’t quite as steep. The additional spot skews the numbers and the data sample is too small. 24 teams have started 0-2 since the change in 2020. Only one, the Cincinnati Bengals, have made the playoffs. That isn’t a high percentage but because it is such a small sample size it can’t be trusted especially considering that a lot of those 0-2 teams weren’t trying to make the playoffs anyway.
The additional game also makes a difference. Going from 16 to 17 games matters in a season with only a handful of games. That extra game may be the difference for an 0-2 team making or missing the playoffs. Once again, there is limited data on what kind of effect this actually has on making the playoffs because this has been such a recent change.
More Hope Than Before
The research tells us that an 0-2 start in the NFL isn’t great but it also doesn’t doom your season in today’s game. With the additional game and playoff team, the opportunities are there for good teams to recover after slow starts. The pressure increases for sure but good teams can often go on some great runs throughout the season. This season has some very interesting teams sitting at 0-1 going into Sunday. The Chiefs, Bills, Giants, Seahawks, and Chargers, all playoff teams from last year, had a loss in the opening week. Fan bases with high expectations are worried already going into week 2 but chances are that even if all of these teams lose on Sunday, at least some of them will make the playoffs.
The 0-2 start should be avoided in the NFL but it doesn’t tank the season. There are some good teams that might start 0-2 in 2023 and it will be interesting to see if any of them can recover to make the playoffs.
